Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Tesla related - the below relates to short range delivery robots, can cover large part of UK population, but not everywhere. Being slow, not suited so well to hot food (might be insulated), a faster vehicle like a Tesla might make sense for pizzas etc, in which case why not cook them en-route?


The Robots that deliver to us (according to the manufacturers/article) should cost $1-2 to deliver. They have to do 6 deliveries a day to break even says an OLD article from 2019 Europe’s 6-wheeled delivery robots begin invasion of US campuses | Sifted. It takes around an hour from ordering to get the food (grocery, not take-away/ready cooked). Cost of a robot was $5500 or so, the manufacturers expected price to come down to just over $2000



Over a million deliveries so far. Quite a few locations at USA Universities as well as here in UK A revolution in local delivery.

You can't steal an Idea! I mentioned this back on page 6829 (close enough). Didn't you read every post, can't you remember?
But now I will add to it...
Since my original post was pre-octo-valve...well you know where I am going....

 

[Krugerrand]

It's like once every two weeks. Too much? Pardon me for valuing the knowledge base potential of TMC discourse!

I'm seeing a lot of r/wsb mimicking going on and think it's a shame, that's all. This used to be a good hub for market wisdom.

Will give it a rest until the 4th of July.

It’s been more often than that at times and you know it.

This IS a good hub for market wisdom. It’s also a hub for a lot of maybe this will happen, maybe that will happen because; Surprise! We’re all just giving our best guesses in the moment, including yourself.

 

[scaesare]

I blame the press for parroting their 350kW charge capabilities without bother to.....ya know.....check if they have a battery that can handle that level of charge. Ridiculous.

I'm as happy as the next guy to take the media to task for their misdeeds, however that being said I blame the company for providing specs that quite frankly were suspect.

I mean, when a company with assumedly competent engineering talent introduces a new "800V pack architecture that allows for 350KW charging" do you really expect any media other than the niche that do technical deep-dives to even understand much of what that means other than to glom on to the "that means 80% charge in 20 minutes!" story?

 

[buttershrimp]

So I guess we’re just not going to talk about the near vertical drop once again at open. Getting real tired of always going down. Deliveries better be good.

Does anyone know of fairly reliable methods of predicting deliveries for Q1? All I see is Gary Black saying >50% chance it is above estimate. Which means there is <50% chance Gary sells and buys back lower.

 

[JustMe]

Does anyone know of fairly reliable methods of predicting deliveries for Q1? All I see is Gary Black saying >50% chance it is above estimate. Which means there is <50% chance Gary sells and buys back lower.

According to the article linked below, Tesla sales in the US are estimated to be up 45% YOY - comparing 11/2020-1/2021 vs 11/2019-1/2020.

Tesla News and Reviews | InsideEVs

Get the latest on new Tesla models including spy shots, first drives, in-depth reviews, concept car photos, new features and more.

insideevs.com

 

[asburgers]

Does anyone know of fairly reliable methods of predicting deliveries for Q1? All I see is Gary Black saying >50% chance it is above estimate. Which means there is <50% chance Gary sells and buys back lower.

I look at the number of scrap bins and divide by 9.

 

[buttershrimp]

According to the article linked below, Tesla sales in the US are estimated to be up 45% YOY - comparing 11/2020-1/2021 vs 11/2019-1/2020.

Tesla News and Reviews | InsideEVs

Get the latest on new Tesla models including spy shots, first drives, in-depth reviews, concept car photos, new features and more.

insideevs.com

Sorry I meant to say is there a way of getting an accurate read of whether deliveries will beat estimates? Or profits? I’m sure the options folks on this thread have their black art methods.

 

[Mengy]

Frustrating yes. It's not localized to TSLA though.

Nope, most tech is continuing it's downward dive today, including TSLA. Things will reverse like they always do, the market is cyclical so patience will be rewarded in the long run. Buy now if you have any buying power left!

 

[traxila]

Does anyone know of fairly reliable methods of predicting deliveries for Q1? All I see is Gary Black saying >50% chance it is above estimate. Which means there is <50% chance Gary sells and buys back lower.

Troy Teslike used to be a regular here and devotes a lot of time to estimating deliveries with pretty good results.

https://twitter.com/troyteslike?lang=en

 

[asburgers]

Nope, most tech is continuing it's downward dive today, including TSLA. Things will reverse like they always do, the market is cyclical so patience will be rewarded in the long run. Buy now if you have any buying power left!

Nope, most tech is continuing it's downward dive today, including TSLA. Things will reverse like they always do, the market is cyclical so patience will be rewarded in the long run. Buy now if you have any buying power left!

Other than my theta gang plays, I'm nursing massive unrealized loss positions. It's probably a great time to pick up more, but I'm leaving a large percentage of cash until we get more clarity on market direction. I'm not really confident in the macro environment.

...ok...maybe I pick up a few more chairs to cash out in 2040...maybe.

 

[JRP3]

Inching out of a pandemic is a great time to think about the downside of having a one-thread discussion forum. A one-thread forum is a chat room, discussion forums are better!

There are currently 93 pages of threads in the Investment discussion forum alone. Your characterization is completely divorced from reality.

 

[dl003]

Market is bracing for the potential impact of the 5- and 7-year treasury auctions today and tomorrow. It is understandable that some investors are taking a defensive stance on tech since it was the disastrous 7-year auction on 2/18 that crashed QQQ by 4% on the same day. Be patient my not-so-young Padawans.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm as happy as the next guy to take the media to task for their misdeeds, however that being said I blame the company for providing specs that quite frankly were suspect.

I mean, when a company with assumedly competent engineering talent introduces a new "800V pack architecture that allows for 350KW charging" do you really expect any media other than the niche that do technical deep-dives to even understand much of what that means other than to glom on to the "that means 80% charge in 20 minutes!" story?

I assumed that blaming VW for perfectly VW-esque behavior was off the table. These clowns are going to lie....obviously. It should have been pretty easy for Electrek and others to forego drooling over specs quoted from the company behind Dieselgate and do some mild journalistic investigation. Asking one or two pointed questions would've done it.

VW didn't roll out a pack architecture that could handle 350kW of charging, they rolled out an 800v pack architecture and a charging network(of one location) that could charge at 350kW. Their hope was no one would bother asking if they worked together in anything approaching a real world application. They did make a few quiet claims that Taycan could use their 350kW chargers, but they never said at what rate! They said Taycan would charge fast, but only in vague terms like "80% in about 15 minutes".

VW is going to lie. Always. It's the role of the press, especially the tech press like Electrek, to nail down their claims and validate them. I would reference the TMC "VW Charge America 350kW" thread for our 2018 due diligence that immediately refuted their claims, but it does not exist.

 

[lascavarian]

Market is bracing for the potential impact of the 5- and 7-year treasury auctions today and tomorrow. It is understandable that some investors are taking a defensive stance on tech since it was the disastrous 7-year auction on 2/18 that crashed QQQ by 4% on the same day. Be patient my not-so-young Padawans.

In the meantime, Welcome GME investors.

 

[woodisgood]

I assumed that blaming VW for perfectly VW-esque behavior was off the table. These clowns are going to lie....obviously. It should have been pretty easy for Electrek and others to forego drooling over specs quoted from the company behind Dieselgate and do some mild journalistic investigation. Asking one or two pointed questions would've done it.

VW didn't roll out a pack architecture that could handle 350kW of charging, they rolled out an 800v pack architecture and a charging network(of one location) that could charge at 350kW. Their hope was no one would bother asking if they worked together in anything approaching a real world application. They did make a few quiet claims that Taycan could use their 350kW chargers, but they never said at what rate! They said Taycan would charge fast, but only in vague terms like "80% in about 15 minutes".

VW is going to lie. Always. It's the roll of the press, especially the tech press like Electrek, to nail down their claims and validate them. I would reference the TMC "VW Charge America 350kW" thread for our 2018 due diligence that immediately refuted their claims, but it does not exist.

I can see the dilemma for entities like Electrek, which have the goal of promoting cleantech adoption rather than shooting down all the newcomers. They’d rather - for now - try to level the playing field than contribute further to Tesla’s dominance.

The media at large, however, wants badly to believe Tesla’s lead is the result of lies and everyone else is so behind because they’re just so gosh-darn honest. Most of the FUD these days is positioned as such.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Market is bracing for the potential impact of the 5- and 7-year treasury auctions today and tomorrow. It is understandable that some investors are taking a defensive stance on tech since it was the disastrous 7-year auction on 2/18 that crashed QQQ by 4% on the same day. Be patient my not-so-young Padawans.

This should be a good test of the inflation narrative. Personally I don't see the 10yr overflowing to 7/5/2's, but rather the other way around. There's too much cash sloshing around, I think we'll see a 10yr correction back below 1.5% before resuming the slow climb. God willing!

 

[goinfraftw]

This should be a good test of the inflation narrative. Personally I don't see the 10yr overflowing to 7/5/2's, but rather the other way around. There's too much cash sloshing around, I think we'll see a 10yr correction back below 1.5% before resuming the slow climb. God willing!

Q (honestly asking): Let's say you pre-suppose there's too much money available worldwide being made and it's constantly "sloshing around", would cash become a commodity? Where would yield rates go?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I can see the dilemma for entities like Electrek, which have the goal of promoting cleantech adoption rather than shooting down all the newcomers. They’d rather - for now - try to level the playing field than contribute further to Tesla’s dominance.

The media at large, however, wants badly to believe Tesla’s lead is the result of lies and everyone else is so behind because they’re just so gosh-darn honest. Most of the FUD these days is positioned as such.

Agreed. I guess a more accurate comment would be that it should be the responsibility of the press to fact check, just like the auto manufacturer should be truthful. Why are we always the ones doing the legwork???

 

[scaesare]

I assumed that blaming VW for perfectly VW-esque behavior was off the table. These clowns are going to lie....obviously. It should have been pretty easy for Electrek and others to forego drooling over specs quoted from the company behind Dieselgate and do some mild journalistic investigation. Asking one or two pointed questions would've done it.

VW didn't roll out a pack architecture that could handle 350kW of charging, they rolled out an 800v pack architecture and a charging network(of one location) that could charge at 350kW. Their hope was no one would bother asking if they worked together in anything approaching a real world application. They did make a few quiet claims that Taycan could use their 350kW chargers, but they never said at what rate! They said Taycan would charge fast, but only in vague terms like "80% in about 15 minutes".

VW is going to lie. Always. It's the roll of the press, especially the tech press like Electrek, to nail down their claims and validate them. I would reference the TMC "VW Charge America 350kW" thread for our 2018 due diligence that immediately refuted their claims, but it does not exist.

Methinks you give folks like Fred at Electrek too much credit. Even most of the EV-specific sites don't really demonstrate much in-depth knowledge of technical detail. It's much more event coverage, release dates, and feature coverage than "let's do some math and understand the underlying technology" in order to check the work of manufacturers.

How many of those sites can tell you what the relationship between power vs voltage and current are? Or can calculate the capability of a charger having a power rating with a peak voltage above the max pack voltage, when taking in to account the current the charger is rated for?

Not many. You get that in some technical deep-dives on YouTube and amongst a precious few here on the forums.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Q (honestly asking): Let's say you pre-suppose there's too much money available worldwide being made and it's constantly "sloshing around", would cash become a commodity? Where would yield rates go?

As crazy as it sounds.....we should think of it as tokens having a choice between TSLA, BTC, and 1.6%. I think people are underestimating the amount of tokens that usually cycle thru the fossil fuel world and now consider that to be near zero return or not an option at all. That's a big token bucket out of the equation.

We had a moment there of "OIL IS BACK!" hype, but reality has set in a mere 2 months later. If that now semi-disproven hype is what helped drag the 10yr up, certainly today's oil futures reality should help drag it back down. That's my stupid logic anyway.