Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AimStellar]

That was an interesting week. I probably won't remember it in a month.

I'm angered by the legality and tolerance of certain market dynamics. But I've been buying TSLA shares since 2015, and I will never risk looking my children and grandchildren in the eyes with guilt and regret because I capitulated to shortsighted whims of manipulations/short sellers/hedge funds and sold shares. When it comes to accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy, there are no compromises.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

That was an interesting week. I probably won't remember it in a month.

I'm angered by the legality and tolerance of certain market dynamics. But I've been buying TSLA shares since 2015, and I will never risk looking my children and grandchildren in the eyes with guilt and regret because I capitulated to shortsighted whims of manipulations/short sellers/hedge funds and sold shares. When it comes to accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy, there are no compromises.

That's why before i buy or set a limit order...i look into my pup's eyes and say "In 2-3 months....maybe longer....this will all be forgotten"

 

[Oveeus]

And you are basing your estimates on what exactly?

PM'd you as there are things I am uncomfortable sharing in public.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

My friend Sam Stovall is the chief investment strategist at CFRA. Today he published his latest policy notes.

Excerpt:

This bull market just celebrated its first birthday, in which the S&P 500 surged 76.1%. This was the highest first-year gain since 1945, outpacing the average of 37.5% for all prior bull markets and the 68.6% jump for the 2009 bull; the average second-year return simmered down to a more-normal 11.8% gain. This bull’s advance recouped 148% of the point loss of the 2020 bear market, making it third highest behind the first-year bulls of 1949 (+162%) and 1982 (+157%). Of the 12 prior bull markets, only the bull starting in May 1947 faltered after just 395 calendar days, while the bulls of October 1966, May 1970, and December 1987 succumbed before surpassing 1,000 days. The remaining bulls lasted from four years (October 1957) to nearly 11 years (March 2009). Finally, history says, but does not guarantee, that an above-average first-year gain has typically translated into a longer-duration bull market, whereas tepid first-year gains usually led to below-average durations.

It feels like the bull market ended already. How do we know when we're in a bear market?

 

[asburgers]

Stuck ship fans inflation fears.

 

[asburgers]

PM'd you as there are things I am uncomfortable sharing in public.

We won't betray your trust.

 

[Big Time]

Given that bit of information combine with the data out of China/Asia markets for Jan/Feb......sure does seem like 180k+ for deliveries is still on the table

Yeah so if they kept at that pace it would be around 72K for the US, not including any exports to....Canada and europe(?)
Troys NON updated numbers(mid March)call for 64K US deliveries. I haven’t seen the updated version but if it’s lower than that, depending on where the US exported cars to, he could be off by 10K+ in North America.....
Troy says 7K to canada and 30K to Europe 3/Y from Fremont.....
Seamingly 72K + 30K + 7K = 100-110K 3/Y out of freemont if those numbers hold up
10K car difference @ ASP of 45,000 = nearly half a billion dollars in potential revenue miss/beat.

 

[mongo]

Do I have this right - I can move money in my IRA at TD into a Roth Acct. The taxes are due just like I pulled it out of my IRA (no penalty age), but any TSLA gains there are no longer taxed? This sounds pretty interesting if we believe the future is bright.

You owe taxes on the amount transfered, so you need to have that much cash on hand. If you use part of the IRA to cover the taxes, those non-rolled-over funds are a non-qualified distribution and are also taxed, along with a 10% penalty if are under qualifed age.

Note: doing a transfer while TSLA is down reduces the cash you need for taxes, but overall improvement of a Roth vs IRA comes down to the tax rate you pay on the lump sum rollover vs the tax rate you would pay on the multiyear withdrawls from the IRA. You need to look at taxes as a percentage, not a dollar amount. Say you have $100 and Tesla goes up 10x, if you get taxed 30% now, then you end up with $700 tax free at the end ((100*.7)x10). If you pull from an IRA in the future at 20%, you'll get $800 ((100x10)*.80), but dollar wise pay $170 more in taxes. This is simplified and does not take into account your standard deduction and the graduated tax rates which benefit the multiyear distribution.


(Roth also has differences in terms of access to the funds, which may be material depending on one's situation).

 

[Tslynk67]

I saw your post yesterday and I was like hmmm lemme check with my sources to see if a call did happen. It did, and so far 4 separate sources have confirmed to me that it took place. So thanks for your post which lead me to reaching out to my own sources. All the best, Sawyer

Twitter's nice, and all, but this is for realz! This is where the shitz goes down, innit

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Twitter's nice, and all, but this is for realz! This is where the shitz goes down, innit

You don't go full ret**d until you join TMC

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah so if they kept at that pace it would be around 72K for the US, not including any exports to....Canada and europe(?)
Troys NON updated numbers(mid March)call for 64K US deliveries. I haven’t seen the updated version but if it’s lower than that, depending on where the US exported cars to, he could be off by 10K+ in North America.....
Troy says 7K to canada and 30K to Europe 3/Y from Fremont.....
Seamingly 72K + 30K + 7K = 100-110K 3/Y out of freemont if those numbers hold up
10K car difference @ ASP of 45,000 = nearly half a billion dollars in potential revenue miss/beat.

Don't forget that Feb and March, Fremont production is going only to North America. So if they sold 24k vehicles in Jan while shipping out a majority of the production overseas, Feb and March should see higher delivery numbers than in Jan......especially March.

 

[Singuy]

We won't betray your trust.

LoL, considering that posts here are making news all over the world, I would say it's best to keep things on the DL.

 

[PokerFJÆS]

Bought mar 2022 $600 call. This is the first time i bought an option in the money. Out of money options seem expensive now.

Couldn't resist and took a nibble at Jun '22 LEAPs. Still expecting more downside but I

 

[Tslynk67]

The 10-year US treasury rate has been ticking upward for the last two hours, with a significant jump during the last half hour. This weighs on net present value calculations for growth stocks like TSLA. Algobots react automatically.

Point taken, but it dropped like a stone most of the week and... nothing...

I call it voodoo...

...

 

[ninpb]

Positive news on registrations this quarter

Tesla News and Reviews | InsideEVs

Get the latest on new Tesla models including spy shots, first drives, in-depth reviews, concept car photos, new features and more.

insideevs.com

Anybody have a clue about where most used Teslas come from? Tesla, dealers or private? Either way, tesla is happily accepting OTA revenue from these new owners.

 

[Tslynk67]

View attachment 648176

A lot of noise has been made about how rising yields may sound the death knell for growth stocks, but the reality is that bonds have been rallying with equities (nasdaq above) for 20+ straight years

If only I had a brain...

 

[SOULPEDL]

Fun Fri... my Reef sandals just arrived. They could almost pass for Teslawear with their colors.
Been wearing Reefs for decades, but this pair won hands down.

 

[ZeApelido]

If Tesla exceeds, everybody exceeds -- as status quo is maintained in TMC. Unless you already have the most Tesla Delta that is.

Don't ruin it for me.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Yeah so if they kept at that pace it would be around 72K for the US, not including any exports to....Canada and europe(?)
Troys NON updated numbers(mid March)call for 64K US deliveries. I haven’t seen the updated version but if it’s lower than that, depending on where the US exported cars to, he could be off by 10K+ in North America.....
Troy says 7K to canada and 30K to Europe 3/Y from Fremont.....
Seamingly 72K + 30K + 7K = 100-110K 3/Y out of freemont if those numbers hold up
10K car difference @ ASP of 45,000 = nearly half a billion dollars in potential revenue miss/beat.

It won't be quite 72k. The 24k in January includes 2.5k model X/S. There will be very few of those left to sell in February and especially March. So I would go with 66k there.

But, if one looks at when the actual ships left for Europe it seems like four out of eight ships had cars made in January and the other four cars made in February. There are no Y going to Europe but if Troy is right about 30k (seems a little high to me) that would be 15k each in January and February and thus 15k extra that would stay in the US in March.

So 66k+15k+30k+7k=118k

Again, I think 30k for Europe is high but even if we take that down to say 24k the total would come to 109k.

So can China do 61k to get us above 170k?

 

[SunCatcher]

Twitter's nice, and all, but this is for realz! This is where the shitz goes down, innit

Lycanthrope, you crack me up.

As the Mormons so well put it: "This is the place"! (No really, they said that when they arrived in Utah)