Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

I was taking exception to your claim that it couldn't be this week if TSLA doesn't show more strength today.

I feel news or material information can have delayed, sometimes very delayed reactions when it comes to causing a breakout. But when it comes to options, the outcome is a lot more obvious. Certainly there are times it breaks out against what options/MM's would like it to do.

The caveat being as I mentioned in an earlier post, it's too early to tell if 700 is the cap from macro pressure or from MM's interjecting to cap the stock.

Having said all that, I would never play puts on the stock because of the nature of how TSLA trades. Once that breakout happens, it really happens. Even if there was a Mt Everest wall of Call options at say 700.....I still wouldn't play puts because the breakout can happen at any time.

 

[insaneoctane]

Depends on how you define "profitable". A similar logic as applied to Tesla's profitability will show it profitable as it allows the obscenely profitable truck and SUV division to crank out millions. The Mach-E is a compliance car just as the Bolt is. This is why it's earmarked for Europe initially. They have no intention of making any more than necessary to keep their truck production at peak.

Individually, the legacy BEV's outside of how their carbon credits skew the numbers, so far have not been able to hold their own. As opposed to Tesla that does make BEV's that individually are profitable. As a company however Tesla, unlike the legacy's is still in a hypergrowth trajectory so they spend more than they earn. Without the carbon credits, as a company, they (Tesla) would show a loss. If those credits or financing dried up, Tesla would just scale back the growth. That's a lot easier than trying to squeeze $9,000 of cost out of a Bolt. I would imagine the Mach-E no different.

Thank you for explicitly making my point...and see below

As TSLA investors who have heard it all, we know that emissions credits must be included in the overall calculation. So, the Mach-e reduces the need for Ford to buy the credits from their competitors. That's probably a ~$2k cash value right there. There is a little additional benefit that they don't have to give this money to a competitor (which would allow them to undercut their prices even more). I put that value at about 10-15% the value of the credit (which probably covers the negative value of the few sales the Mach-e steals from other Ford products).

Even considering these things, I think the Mach-e is probably about break-even or worse. Which is to say the value to Ford is primarily a learning experience. The hardest part is actually manufacturing, so the value is in gaining expertise. Everyone has to start somewhere.

Yes, but in response to the FUD that Mach-E will become a “sales leader”, it most certainly will not when they lose money on every copy. Sales of these will be limited to what Ford needs, not necessarily what the buyers want.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Nice to see that PT upgrade by Canaccord focused on Energy and the entire Tesla ecosystem there. Nice to see someone basing their analysis off of that. Even the bullish analysts out there seem to leave that entire dynamic out of their research

 

[Backup Account]

Surprised the select version is already out. There's one for sale near me in FL. 44k for 230 miles of range and outright dangerous "Co-pilot 360". Can't handle simple curves. Also where are the freaken warnings if it can't handle it? This is an accident waiting to happen.

Isn't this Mobileye tech @Bladerskb ?

 

[thx1139]

Count me as not impressed with Ford selling 6,614 Mach-E when they produced 14,805. Did I miss something?

 

[Todd Burch]

Today's stock action, again, is totally natural.

 

[Todd Burch]

Count me as not impressed with Ford selling 6,614 Mach-E when they produced 14,805. Did I miss something?

Reminder that you can't compare the sales of any other OEM to those of Tesla, particularly near the beginning of a product's life cycle. Other OEM sales are to dealers, who then have to sell the car off their lot to an end customer. Every Tesla sale is a REAL sale to an end customer already.

So real Mach-E sales are likely less than 6,614, unless all of them are explicit reservations (which may be the case actually).

 

[Knightshade]

Count me as not impressed with Ford selling 6,614 Mach-E when they produced 14,805. Did I miss something?

6614 is US sales. Assuming your 14805 is total production that's almost exactly right since they said only 40% of production is for the US. (that said I've no idea how/when/in what quantity they ship to europe)

 

[Bunky]

Are we really going to be pegged to $700 from 10am on Monday for the rest of the week?!

 

[woodisgood]

Exactly. Hence why I was saying whoever picks the right week if they're playing short term calls.........is going to hit it big. But it's a total guessing game as to when that week will come.

So you’re saying whoever gets lucky....will be lucky.

 

[Todd Burch]

Are we really going to be pegged to $700 from 10am on Monday for the rest of the week?!

FOMO should start kicking as the week progresses, as the quarterly call is next week EDIT: A week from Monday. No matter how it plays out, unless you have very short term options, we win in the end.

 

[Tim S]

FOMO should start kicking as the week progresses, as the quarterly call is next week. No matter how it plays out, unless you have very short term options, we win in the end.

Earnings call is 2 weeks from today on the 26th, after the close. Not quite next week, especially if you have options expiring on the 23rd.

Hopefully you are correct and FOMO buying starts coming in this week. And I agree, we (TSLA longs) will win in the long term.

 

[Tyler34]

FOMO should start kicking as the week progresses, as the quarterly call is next week. No matter how it plays out, unless you have very short term options, we win in the end.

The quarterly call is in 2 weeks.

 

[woodisgood]

FOMO should start kicking as the week progresses, as the quarterly call is next week. No matter how it plays out, unless you have very short term options, we win in the end.

What about long-term options that died and went to heaven?

 

[Mo City]

Interesting thread about replacing radar in FSD since it has been brought up here a lot. How does this relate to TSLA? Looking at the thread, Tesla has some amazing AI talent, which makes TSLA worth even more.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1381654404885929984

So, when it comes to autonomous driving:

(1) Radar makes lidar useless and (2) vision makes radar useless because (3) the best part is no part and (4) the best process is no process.

 

[Todd Burch]

The quarterly call is in 2 weeks.

Thanks for the correction.

 

[Todd Burch]

My crystal ball, which is always wrong, is telling me that we're going to see a rise into the close. There will be one more pushdown, then we rise and close above $700, because we rock.

 

[Knightshade]

So, when it comes to autonomous driving:

(1) Radar makes lidar useless and (2) vision makes radar useless because (3) the best part is no part and (4) the best process is no process.

We've been over why 1 is correct but 2 is not.

LIDAR can not provide any info you can't already get from Vision (the James Douma video I and several overs have referenced explains this)

RADAR -can- provide info you can not get from vision. (Douma mentions that too, and thus why unlike lidar, radar is a useful secondary sensor to use in certain situations).


What Tesla appears to have decided is the amount of value provided by that added data is not worth the additional work and time it would require to get it to integrate well with the new 4D vision system they're moving things to.... (I've mentioned a few reasons why that's very hard to do, others have added additional ones)- and that getting out a vision-only system that covers 99.X percent of cases safely SOON is better than maybe getting out vision+radar covering 99.Y where Y is only very slightly larger than X but taking years more.

(also worth noting, the more people you get on the SOON system the smaller the gap between X and Y will get because of the 2 situations where radar adds value one of them is because the guy in front of you isn't paying enough attention to the guy in front of HIM- and an L4 or better system for the guy in front of you solves THAT one... leaving you only with seeing through visually obscuring weather)

 

[Opus BC fan]

A reading from the book of TSLA, chapter 4, page 12...

and the MMs saw the production and spake that it was good.
It was decreed that 700 would be the number and the number would be 700
695 would be acceptable whilst proceeding to 700
705 would mean thou must return to 700.
800 would be right out.
This was the word of the markets...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So you’re saying whoever gets lucky....will be lucky.

You could not be more wrong. Whoever gets lucky will be very lucky. There's a huge financial difference.