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4680 Battery news announcement rumors - source: Twitter author unknown reliability - could be a non-news type of news since many questions on Say are about 4680 battery progress, so Elon/ Tesla is going to respond - what kind of news is what we'd like to know ;D

https://twitter.com/bull_trader_UK/status/1386622728275382274

TSLA.rumor.4680.jpg


https://app.saytechnologies.com/tesla-2021-q1
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People are worried about SNL? That's about the most sanitized arena possible for Elon to be in the public eye. They will do some jokes about artificial intelligence, mars, Elon being an alien/robot, and the average viewer will say "oh, that's that Tesla guy. Yeah he is a little weird but not the monster like I saw in the headlines".
 
Let's not forget the "biggest company" tweet. Only way that happens within "a few months" is a split announcement.

A stock split doesn't change valuation though. I mean sure it will raise the share value somewhat due to people buying at the lower SP but not by much overall.

The only drivers I could see which would catapult TSLA over Apple in the short term are things like Level 5 FSD or a huge government contract or something.
 
Tesla youtube "ads" only reach superfans and antifans.

What Tesla needs to do is reach consumers in neither group that can afford their cars, software, and various other products. To convince these folks to consider buying Tesla products. Not to try to convince the loony toons of TSLAQ.

....

It is not the job of Tesla customers to do their marketing for them. It not the job of customers to do customer service/communications for them.

...
Your perspective is interesting, but...
The Holy Grail of marketing is Word-of-mouth, phraseology that predates cellular phones, not to mention the internet and social media. The most successful brands have almost always had quite small advertising budgets (FWIW 'advertising' is paid promotion. If it is not paid it isn't advertising. Those highly successful brands achieve the most important promotion by their own customers (examples: Airstream, Tesla, Porsche). Then there are those we do not even consider as possibilities that also have that same character (examples: Boeing, SpaceX, Magna (including Magna-Steyr).

Every highly successful brand, repeat EVERY, has a loyal and enthusiastic customer base that promotes the brand, usually without direct compensation, and excuses faults while promoting virtue. In short, they are enthusiasts. Even plumbing fixtures, tools and electrical supplies have that character. Think Snap-On, Moen, even Madison Electric [until they were acquired, perhaps].

I keep posting these things because it is crucial to the prosperity of Tesla that we retail investors understand just how different Tesla is. Tesla DOES NOT follow conventional wisdom. Tesla does not even have dealers, imagine that! Tesla has since inception used very precise and very disciplined cultivation of influencers (early adopters in Marketing context) specifically they have cultivated emerging buyers in a very disciplined way. Young children and young adults all over the world know and admire Tesla. That is where long term loyalty and growth are already being discovered.

Without a doubt I'm influenced by both academic study (My PhD was in Marketing, specifically oriented to women's Islamic banking). That taught me about the role of non-traditional marketing. Please think about how far Tesla has come and is continuing to come just from understanding the modern world.

Frankly there is minimal need to convince the unconvincable. Those people are older and not too likely to buy anyway. The people being convinced are all over the world, including in places Tesla has never been. There is active social media support for Tesla in Brazil, for example, where Tesla is not and probably will not be for some time. less than two years ago I was in Botswana wearing a Tesla T-shirt and was approached by several enthusiastic young people asking me if I had a Tesla. Those stories abound and most of us have them.

Please, please just think about hard core reality. Tesla saves roughly 15% of gross revenues by NOT having dealers and NOT having old-fashioned advertising and promotion. Tesla does NOT pay for product placement, nor even provide test products to press for either TE nor automotive. Tesla does not even have glitzy parties to launch new products. Their releases are, in comparison, boring with not much careful preparation. Geeks loved Battery Day but nobody else understood or cared. Please just think about that. People who mattered, who influence buyers, devoted lots of time and effort to understanding. Everyone else ignored the news or dismissed it as 'vaporware'.

Tesla has such precise and well directed efforts that everyone who does not understand "Word-of-mouth" thinks Tesla is losing sales. That is not true. Tesla is just very, very efficient and rapidly becoming more so.

Even FUD ends out to be not entirely negative since Tesla consistently proves their abilities.

If I seem to be belaboring these points just think of that 15% of Gross sales that Tesla does not spend!
 
A stock split doesn't change valuation though. I mean sure it will raise the share value somewhat due to people buying at the lower SP but not by much overall.

The only drivers I could see which would catapult TSLA over Apple in the short term are things like Level 5 FSD or a huge government contract or something.

or serious mass production of 4680s
 
Your perspective is interesting, but...
The Holy Grail of marketing is Word-of-mouth, phraseology that predates cellular phones, not to mention the internet and social media. The most successful brands have almost always had quite small advertising budgets (FWIW 'advertising' is paid promotion. If it is not paid it isn't advertising. Those highly successful brands achieve the most important promotion by their own customers (examples: Airstream, Tesla, Porsche). Then there are those we do not even consider as possibilities that also have that same character (examples: Boeing, SpaceX, Magna (including Magna-Steyr).

Every highly successful brand, repeat EVERY, has a loyal and enthusiastic customer base that promotes the brand, usually without direct compensation, and excuses faults while promoting virtue. In short, they are enthusiasts. Even plumbing fixtures, tools and electrical supplies have that character. Think Snap-On, Moen, even Madison Electric [until they were acquired, perhaps].

I keep posting these things because it is crucial to the prosperity of Tesla that we retail investors understand just how different Tesla is. Tesla DOES NOT follow conventional wisdom. Tesla does not even have dealers, imagine that! Tesla has since inception used very precise and very disciplined cultivation of influencers (early adopters in Marketing context) specifically they have cultivated emerging buyers in a very disciplined way. Young children and young adults all over the world know and admire Tesla. That is where long term loyalty and growth are already being discovered.

Without a doubt I'm influenced by both academic study (My PhD was in Marketing, specifically oriented to women's Islamic banking). That taught me about the role of non-traditional marketing. Please think about how far Tesla has come and is continuing to come just from understanding the modern world.

Frankly there is minimal need to convince the unconvincable. Those people are older and not too likely to buy anyway. The people being convinced are all over the world, including in places Tesla has never been. There is active social media support for Tesla in Brazil, for example, where Tesla is not and probably will not be for some time. less than two years ago I was in Botswana wearing a Tesla T-shirt and was approached by several enthusiastic young people asking me if I had a Tesla. Those stories abound and most of us have them.

Please, please just think about hard core reality. Tesla saves roughly 15% of gross revenues by NOT having dealers and NOT having old-fashioned advertising and promotion. Tesla does NOT pay for product placement, nor even provide test products to press for either TE nor automotive. Tesla does not even have glitzy parties to launch new products. Their releases are, in comparison, boring with not much careful preparation. Geeks loved Battery Day but nobody else understood or cared. Please just think about that. People who mattered, who influence buyers, devoted lots of time and effort to understanding. Everyone else ignored the news or dismissed it as 'vaporware'.

Tesla has such precise and well directed efforts that everyone who does not understand "Word-of-mouth" thinks Tesla is losing sales. That is not true. Tesla is just very, very efficient and rapidly becoming more so.

Even FUD ends out to be not entirely negative since Tesla consistently proves their abilities.

If I seem to be belaboring these points just think of that 15% of Gross sales that Tesla does not spend!

In my experience people who have bought Tesla cars seem to be in either of 2 categories:
1 - People who understand either the tech or are pro environment
2 - People who want a status symbol car and don't care particularly about tech or the environment

So I think the market we should address as Tesla fans is (2) - they have the means and would just as well buy a Porsche Cayenne, or high end BMW. Besides the snob appeal they are also safety conscious for the most part.
This reminds me to post that excellent volunteer made YouTube ad on my (rarely used but necessary) FB account.

 
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or serious mass production of 4680s

True, that could do it too, but I don't think that's a practical possibility right now with just the Kato line making them. By this time next year Tesla's battery production could be a shocking wake up call to the market, but I feel we are still too early for that to happen today.

Now that I think about it, announcing the Model 2 going into production in China by the end of 2021 would really be a nuclear bomb for the SP as well!
 
It is not the job of Tesla customers to do their marketing for them. It not the job of customers to do customer service/communications for them.

I certainly won't work for a multi-billionaire/ MNC for free.
Obviously you won't and you don't.

That's fine. But I think you're missing out on what's really going on here. Because Elon's not working for himself, he's working for all of us.
 
Since the P&L will arrive later today it is perhaps in order to restate an accounting point regularly discusses by @The Accountant , among others.

Virtually all automotive manufacturers worldwide have an independent dealer distribution base. Those, in virtually every case, recognize sales and income when a vehicle is transferred to a distributor or dealer. That means they recognize income in some cases when ownership actually remains in a company-owned entity (check VW ID3 German deliveries for reference. In many cases the vehicles change ownership when the vehicle is loaded for dispatch for the factory, and in others when vehicles arrive at dealers. In many cases the OEN actually provides most of ten dealer financing, sometimes without recourse, but still recognizing income.

Tesla, by contrast, recognizes income ONLY when funds a received and title is transferred to the end user.

That means Tesla finished goods inventory should typically be much monger than for other OEMs. As we know that is not true. The Tesla conversion cycle is far more efficient than for any other OEM.
As we consider Gross margin and inventory levels we need to consider these factors. They are material.
Because Tesla owns the entire distribution system, in theory Tesla should have far higher fixed assets than have other OEM's as a percentage of sales.

Just consider those structural factors when evaluating Tesla performance. We all know that almost no securities "analysts" are even aware of these factors, much less capable of evaluating their significance.
 
This one was interesting to look back at, one year later. Elon Musk might be a bit optimistic with timelines, but these guys clearly underestimated the rate of technological progress with enough pressure.

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No one believed that timeline when it was published on April 30, 2020. [Mod: changed from 2000 at user request. --ggr]

This story is the result of more media FUD, in this case probably instigated by billionaire interests who had reduced their exposure to the market in March near the bottom due to COVID concerns and had not yet re-invested back into stocks. They were hoping to help create a double-dip so they could get back in.

Despicable people using the public institution of the media and their power and wealth to attempt to take advantage of the tragedy that was impacting the world. There are no words to describe it.
 
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Wait, and you studied epidemiology and other things?

I think I figured out who you are.

1*WYBY8rHgR84k1rsORxH85A.jpeg
Just remember I'm really very old and I have never had a long attention span so I kept changing careers. Now that I am certifiably ancient, I do enjoy reflecting how much I have learned along the way. FWIW, I left epidemiology when the Vietnam war intervened. After that came all the non-epidemiological stuff. It is wise to remember that my opinions are not facts, no matter how much I believe them.

OTOH, my marketing decisions have worked out pretty well. My faith in PayPal first then TSLA, The Boring Company and SpaceX is driven by my conviction that Elon Musk understands Marketing as well as he does technology. It all started before PyPal but without the marketing insights. In PayPal he really learned how to market, not least because of his mistakes there.

My firm belief is that learning from mistakes is far more important than not making mistakes. Of course to learn from a mistake you need to have the discipline to know exactly what mistake you made. That isn't simple. From my own mistakes I have learned that the largest difference between success and failure is to know how to learn from mistakes rather than deny them. Very few people seem to be able to do that. Elon recruits people who can!
 
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People are worried about SNL? That's about the most sanitized arena possible for Elon to be in the public eye. They will do some jokes about artificial intelligence, mars, Elon being an alien/robot, and the average viewer will say "oh, that's that Tesla guy. Yeah he is a little weird but not the monster like I saw in the headlines".
One more reason Bill Gates will have to envy Elon. Just the thought of Gates on SNL puts me to sleep!
 
Your perspective is interesting, but...
The Holy Grail of marketing is Word-of-mouth, phraseology that predates cellular phones, not to mention the internet and social media. The most successful brands have almost always had quite small advertising budgets (FWIW 'advertising' is paid promotion. If it is not paid it isn't advertising. Those highly successful brands achieve the most important promotion by their own customers (examples: Airstream, Tesla, Porsche). Then there are those we do not even consider as possibilities that also have that same character (examples: Boeing, SpaceX, Magna (including Magna-Steyr).

Every highly successful brand, repeat EVERY, has a loyal and enthusiastic customer base that promotes the brand, usually without direct compensation, and excuses faults while promoting virtue. In short, they are enthusiasts. Even plumbing fixtures, tools and electrical supplies have that character. Think Snap-On, Moen, even Madison Electric [until they were acquired, perhaps].

I keep posting these things because it is crucial to the prosperity of Tesla that we retail investors understand just how different Tesla is. Tesla DOES NOT follow conventional wisdom. Tesla does not even have dealers, imagine that! Tesla has since inception used very precise and very disciplined cultivation of influencers (early adopters in Marketing context) specifically they have cultivated emerging buyers in a very disciplined way. Young children and young adults all over the world know and admire Tesla. That is where long term loyalty and growth are already being discovered.

Without a doubt I'm influenced by both academic study (My PhD was in Marketing, specifically oriented to women's Islamic banking). That taught me about the role of non-traditional marketing. Please think about how far Tesla has come and is continuing to come just from understanding the modern world.

Frankly there is minimal need to convince the unconvincable. Those people are older and not too likely to buy anyway. The people being convinced are all over the world, including in places Tesla has never been. There is active social media support for Tesla in Brazil, for example, where Tesla is not and probably will not be for some time. less than two years ago I was in Botswana wearing a Tesla T-shirt and was approached by several enthusiastic young people asking me if I had a Tesla. Those stories abound and most of us have them.

Please, please just think about hard core reality. Tesla saves roughly 15% of gross revenues by NOT having dealers and NOT having old-fashioned advertising and promotion. Tesla does NOT pay for product placement, nor even provide test products to press for either TE nor automotive. Tesla does not even have glitzy parties to launch new products. Their releases are, in comparison, boring with not much careful preparation. Geeks loved Battery Day but nobody else understood or cared. Please just think about that. People who mattered, who influence buyers, devoted lots of time and effort to understanding. Everyone else ignored the news or dismissed it as 'vaporware'.

Tesla has such precise and well directed efforts that everyone who does not understand "Word-of-mouth" thinks Tesla is losing sales. That is not true. Tesla is just very, very efficient and rapidly becoming more so.

Even FUD ends out to be not entirely negative since Tesla consistently proves their abilities.

If I seem to be belaboring these points just think of that 15% of Gross sales that Tesla does not spend!
Generally agree, but the battery day video was pretty glitzy and well prepared. Anyone who knew what they were looking at was floored by the progress.