Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Fremont Flyover today revealed a pickup truck (ICE) testing some suspension related equipment perhaps (1:28ish)? Not much else to see, but perhaps the people of the internet find a gem or two.

That's a real gem right there. It looks like that pick-up has air hoses going to the center of each wheel hub! And the area around the wheel hub looks custom, like a one-off setup to fill tires from the center of the wheel.

My interpretation of this is that Tesla is developing software to use the Cybertruck's on-board air compressor to have on-the-fly tire pressure adjustments.

Edit: On closer inspection, I don't think they are air hoses (I can see a couple of odd kinks), maybe data cables for, like you said, testing suspension, probably adjustable suspension.

 

[buttershrimp]

That's a real gem right there. It looks like that pick-up has air hoses going to the center of each wheel hub! And the area around the wheel hub looks custom, like a one-off setup to fill tires from the center of the wheel.

My interpretation of this is that Tesla is developing software to use the Cybertruck's on-board air compressor to have on-the-fly tire pressure adjustments.

Edit: On closer inspection, I don't think they are air hoses (I can see a couple of odd kinks), maybe data cables for, like you said, testing suspension, probably adjustable suspension.

Well that got me excited and then you let out all the air out at the end..... literally then figuratively

 

[pitabun]

Didn't see this posted yet. Elon's response to Gary Black on the need for PR:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387172830094233601

pretty upsetting. Majority of people aren’t like us, they just read the exact news agencies Gary is talking about at face value. Peeps that believe in the lies they read don’t have an agenda, they simply were misled.

Elon says “I trust the people”; makes no sense to me and he’s definitely thinking long term.

 

[lascavarian]

Your comment is confusing. I suspect Tesla was gauging the market reaction to a few large, simultaneous sales. For all we know, they had their crypto market data feeds being observed by AI while they entered the sell orders.

Nothing wrong with testing the waters.

There is something very wrong with testing the waters IMO. Implicit in the need to test is hidden risk and performance uncertainty. Why invest over a billion dollars of resources in an asset that REQUIRES periodic testing of waters. This is counterproductive. The board should have concerns IMO.

I think I have explained my concerns. It is less the money than my diminished confidence in the CFO.

 

[AudubonB]

Getting the suspension right is THE key to a successful ICE pickup replacement. We zeroed in on that very quickly back in 2014 & 15 when I led a team trying our best to get Tesla’s attention to this market segment. And I felt quite deflated when I learned of the Model X suspension. Not because it is inadequate for that vehicle - it serves - but because it demonstrated that, at that time, Tesla had not brought its engineering prowess to bear on solving the real problem that a multi-purpose pickup like the Cybertruck will face.
Ford, GM and the rest get away with their suspension systems by disregarding the fuel inefficiencies of undercarriage drag. Tesla can’t proceed thusly.

 

[ZeApelido]

Kelly Blue Book getting blue balls from lack of ad revenues?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387172583435644932

 

[PeterJA]

I think the use of conspiracy theory in these cases is to indicate a branch of the theist/conspirationist faith based system of thought, where the the less proof, or more anti-proof, exists of a theory, the stronger their faith in it becomes. any sufficiently good imaginary conspiracy will cover al it’s tracks, always, and thus becomes an item of faith. our monkey brains like to find stories and characters in the randomness to feel safe. And like to pretend that complex effects require work and planning- while our systems are so so brittle that a thoughtless level government bureaucrat who just wants to go home early and retire with a sailboat can sign a decision that will sink a whole country.

sure, there are many evil arrangements of non transparent cartels. But as an example a lot of coronavirus conspiracy theories stem from a lack of knowledge of the people, economics and dynamics behind the topic- just like with Tesla. Simple events and decisions are given interpretative intentionality.

there must be a name for the Gell-Mann amnesia effect, applied to conspiracy theories: I read some crackpot theory about why Tesla is doing XYZ and have enough data and background to understand it is totally wrong. But I turn the page and get deeply engrossed by a narrative of a coronavirus theory even if it has the same (lack of) quality, grounding, etc.

And I wont go into Technical Analysis

This sounds quite erudite despite your languorous punctuation. But my little monkey brain can't quite figure out what if any action you recommend. Give up on the pattern-seeking masses?

I recommend skepticism toward any message pushed by powerful industries and their captive media and government agencies. That certainly includes the Medical Industrial Complex, which insisted we need vaccine for coronavirus and suppressed natural methods to boost immunity, at the cost of half a million lives in the US alone. By "skepticism" I don't mean dismissing anything they say. I do mean at least listening to dissenters to find out if they have facts and logic...rather than immediately dismissing them as crackpot "conspiracy theorists" without listening to them. That's what the powerful industries don't want you to do.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

What many miss is that HVDC can be deployed by simply dropping cables in the sea and cables can be run underground.

No need for expensive transmission towers, and linking coastal cities can be a quick project.

Many countries have a substantial portion of their population located near the coast.

The fact that Elon mentioned it is interesting, because the equipment at each end of the line is the major expense, hence the biggest opportunity to lower costs.

Imagine boring company tunnels dedicated for HVDC: smaller than current boring tunnels, but perhaps just big enough for a (astronaut size) human to work without crouching. Or even smaller, but large enough for specialized robots to lay and/monitor cables.
Also has built in expansion: Make the tunnel, lay the first cable. Then 5, 10 or more years after you expand capacity by reusing the same tunnel.

Edit: ByeByeJohnny beat me to it.

 

[MP3Mike]

Alert: The percentage of TSLA in ARKK & ARKW has dropped below 10%!

ARKK: 9.67%

ARKW: 9.94%

Will they load up to their 10% holding threshold tomorrow?

Note: ARKQ is still at 11.06%.

 

[MC3OZ]

but large enough for specialized robots to lay and/monitor cables.

Electricians used use a coiled steel hose we called a "snake" to push through conduits for the purposes of dragging wires afterwards, they may have something better now,

It is is fairly easy for a low tech device to drag wires through a tunnel, or for a small electric vehicle (e.g. miniature Cybertruck) to tow the wires...

In coastal areas prone to tropical storms, poles and wires are not a great idea, trees crashing down on power lines is very common in a big storm.

A highly automated solution is the only cost effective way to underground power distribution.

IMO both transmission (long distance high voltage) and distribution (local electricity feeds) may sometimes be better served by underground HVDC.

 

[CLK350]

The systems by Huawei and Mobileye that will be available at the end of 2021 and work anywhere in China with no geofence disproves this logic. The Huawei system uses three lidars and while the mobileye supervision system doesn’t use lidar, they both use HD map.


You are mistaking Tesla and Elon musk’s yearly proclaimation for other people. Huawei had been secretly developing their ADS system till revealing it late 2020. They always said it will be mass produced Q4 2021 and they are right on schedule. Before then, no one knew what they were doing.

The same is the case with mobileye.
It’s Elon that has been saying L5 feature complete by end of the year, every year.

Re Huawei and/or Mobileye having developed a Lidar based ADS system that does some level of FSD everywhere and not in limited pre tested/ mapped areas, COLOR ME SKEPTICAL. How would they have (allegedly, secretly) trained a neural network all these years? with secret millions of Lidar equipped cars driving around China, the US or EU roads? If they are not using a neural network training approach and are relying instead on heuristics rule based AI, uh they achieved a fantastic breakthrough, NOT POSSIBLE. If they secretly copied the HW3 hardware and programming, yeah, they might stand a chance, LOL.

[Rant begin] Elon may have been overly optimistic in his predicted timeline, but at least he does eventually reach a lot of these. Some, uh most politicians and CEO's don't even pretend to tackle anything substantial. Like fixing, uh just addressing the deficit issue LOL. nah, better blame, hmm the Chinese, the undocumented immigrants, the anti (my political views) folks, the Russians, the Jews, the Libertarians, .. [Rant end ]

 

[RobStark]

That's been repeatedly debunked. A lot of Tesla Model 3 buyers do the "stretch" to get into a BEV with lower operating costs. Also, there are a LOT of millionaires who drive Camrys, Hondas, Hyundai, etc. and for whom a Model 3 or a Model Y is not even a stretch - it's just a very inexpensive car to operate. Millionaires like that. That's how many of them became millionaires!

Tesla hasn't provided specific model trade-ins in quite a while.

Many years ago they listed BMW 3 Series, Camry, Accord, Prius, Civic, Chrysler Minivans, and LEAF as top trade-ins. In large part because these are very popular cars in California and most of their American sales where in California.

It is likely this will change as we move from early innovator, to early adopter, and to early majority phase. And as West Coast of USA sales become a smaller percentage of overall sales.

It is normal for people to trade in a mainstream branded vehicle like Accord-Camry when they buy a "near luxury" class vehicle like Model 3, 3 Series, X3, Model Y, C Class , GLC. Most people aren't born rich and ready to buy a BMW or Mercedes as soon as they get their drivers license.

Edit A lot of millionaires also like high status purchases like Tesla. Tesla not only demonstrates their wealth but vision of the future. That is why many worked so hard to become millionaires in the first place!

 

[NicoV]

From ER pdf:
- Tesla bought $1500M bitcoin
- Sold $272M bitcoin
- And still has $1331M bitcoin left
Seems to imply they sold $169M bitcoin for $103M profit.
So that $1331M left on the balance sheet may be worth $2B+. Lets say $1B unrealised gains not visible anywhere on the balance sheet. Something they may sell when they feel they need the profits, like when there’s a difficult quarter that would otherwise be unprofitable.
Not that there’s a big chance such a quarter is nearby: Q1 was a perfect storm, with high stock based compensation, no Model S/X sales, very high capital expenditures($1.3B) and high loan paybacks ($1.2B). A billion here, a billion there, soon we’re talking real money.
The technical term for this situation is: Tesla is swimming in money.

 

[printf42]

Haven’t seen @RobStark post this yet, but M3 absolutely crushed Europe in March

Europe March 2021

Electric and plug-in hybrid car sales rankings

ev-sales.blogspot.com

View attachment 657582

View attachment 657581

But we we were told Tesla growth story is done in Europe because of all the amazing EVs from competition.
(Frantically looking for a country that Tesla didn’t love enough.)
See, in XXX, Tesla EV market share dropped by xx%!
/s

That's a real gem right there. It looks like that pick-up has air hoses going to the center of each wheel hub! And the area around the wheel hub looks custom, like a one-off setup to fill tires from the center of the wheel.

My interpretation of this is that Tesla is developing software to use the Cybertruck's on-board air compressor to have on-the-fly tire pressure adjustments.

Edit: On closer inspection, I don't think they are air hoses (I can see a couple of odd kinks), maybe data cables for, like you said, testing suspension, probably adjustable suspension.

Pretty sure those are wheel rotation sensors like often seen on other test mules. We could also see test loads in the truck bed.

This is big, it means this is a mule for driving dynamics testing, that probably means this mule has the full CT skateboard and probably interior too, so that the whole weight distribution would be close enough to the final product. Else, there is no point for this testing yet.

Or, they could be just doing some baseline testing of competitions, nothing to see then.

PS. Attaching a typical sensor seen elsewhere for comparison.

 

[Runarbt]

From ER pdf:
- Tesla bought $1500M bitcoin
- Sold $272M bitcoin
- And still has $1331M bitcoin left
Seems to imply they sold $169M bitcoin for $103M profit.
So that $1331M left on the balance sheet may be worth $2B+. Lets say $1B unrealised gains not visible anywhere on the balance sheet. Something they may sell when they feel they need the profits, like when there’s a difficult quarter that would otherwise be unprofitable.
Not that there’s a big chance such a quarter is nearby: Q1 was a perfect storm, with high stock based compensation, no Model S/X sales, very high capital expenditures($1.3B) and high loan paybacks ($1.2B). A billion here, a billion there, soon we’re talking real money.
The technical term for this situation is: Tesla is swimming in money.

Soo..

Next Q can easily be a few billions extra in the black? ..and this without selling any bitcoins or have any ZEV icome. /me like. ;-)

 

[15Peter20]

Didn't realise gasoline could catch fire:

McLaren 765LT burns to pile of ash in fire at petrol station

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

From ER pdf:
- Tesla bought $1500M bitcoin
- Sold $272M bitcoin
- And still has $1331M bitcoin left
Seems to imply they sold $169M bitcoin for $103M profit.
So that $1331M left on the balance sheet may be worth $2B+. Lets say $1B unrealised gains not visible anywhere on the balance sheet. Something they may sell when they feel they need the profits, like when there’s a difficult quarter that would otherwise be unprofitable.
Not that there’s a big chance such a quarter is nearby: Q1 was a perfect storm, with high stock based compensation, no Model S/X sales, very high capital expenditures($1.3B) and high loan paybacks ($1.2B). A billion here, a billion there, soon we’re talking real money.
The technical term for this situation is: Tesla is swimming in money.

"Tesla is swimming in money" YES!

Reasons for going into bitcoin could be multiple:
- Inflation hedge
- Tech bet: Tesla may have long term crypto plans.
- PR: Some negative, some positive. But Bitcoin exposure has resulted in a lot of attention, worth a lot of money.

Lastly, there might be slight obfuscation angle: It is nice to have some flexible value for 'tuning' the ERs going forward. We know by now, that so-called analysts don't analyze a lot, they are either mouth-pieces for their company, or have a 30+ portfolio, and little time to really delve into the substance of any one company. It may suit Tesla to play into that lack of in-depth analysis, in order to keep grinding, keep executing and slowly take over the world, without detractors truly understanding just how fantastic they are doing.

 

[15Peter20]

Pre-market is making my couch nervous.

But couches are like toothpaste tubes right? There's always something left inside.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Didn't realise gasoline could catch fire:

McLaren 765LT burns to pile of ash in fire at petrol station

Alert Consumer Reports.

 

[15Peter20]

Alert Consumer Reports.

Well, there's no driver in the front seat, so maybe I just will!