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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Tsla TTM p/e is 591.

What’s your point?

P/E was 1200 last year. And if the stock stays at this level until the end of the year P/E will have come down to 200-300. Next year P/E will halve again to 100-150, unless the stock price moves up. That is very low for a stock growing 50 to 100% per year, with profits growing even faster.
 
What’s your point?

P/E was 1200 last year. And if the stock stays at this level until the end of the year P/E will have come down to 200-300. Next year P/E will halve again to 100-150, unless the stock price moves up. That is very low for a stock growing 50 to 100% per year, with profits growing even faster.

Aren’t you betting that stock goes up? With that point of view, I don’t think that saying what the p/e would be if the stock price doesn’t move up is relevant?
 
Interesting video, thanks for posting.

Noteworthy events/quotes, with comments inside <>

14:14 Phone supporter: "Please remain seated In case the car starts moving again."
<"In case .. ". What? Don't they have override mode?>

17:10 Customer: "Now its is blocking the entire road...!"

21:20: Customer: "It backed out. Now it is blocking the whole lane instead of half of it." <SIC>

24:42: Customer: "It really does not like these cones!"

25:08: Customer: "Now the hazards are on."
<Good. Though also implying that they were not on the first stop. Bad!>

26:34: <Lot of jerking at steering wheel. Car escapes again>
Customer: "I don't even know what is going on anymore!"

28:25 Phone supporter "The car should not take off"
<Well, it better not, the emergency driver is trying to get into the car...!>

29:18: <Emergency driver does some kind of handover to obtain control. Due to video edited to hide emergency driver it is hard to see what and how>

30:20: Emergency driver: "We have been following you for a while, because it was having problems. I don't know why this construction zone was not taken off the map".
<Interesting ! So, if the map is wrong, then the car gets in trouble? Tesla used to rely on maps for self-driving up til around 2017, but decided to skip them. Perhaps wisely ?>

32:50: Customer: "Do you pick a car and follow it all day or do you stay in an area or ...?"
33:06 <Emergency driver dodges questions about how many emergency drivers there are and how they pick cars.>
 
Regarding Waymo Stuck - very valuable video, BUT keep in mind - this is early times, it's normal - we might see even weirder situations happening - imagine if someone took over control via attack, it's important to get this right.

I had "fleet wide hack" very high up on my investment-threat list close to elon dying for a long time, and so far they managed to not have one - so imho Tesla track record is the best for now
 
Aren’t you betting that stock goes up? With that point of view, I don’t think that saying what the p/e would be if the stock price doesn’t move up is relevant?

But you are still not explaining why you posted the current P/E of 591. Are you implying it is too high, too low or just right?
 
Good thing then that we’re looking at hypergrowth for years to come.
D58D8421-0E2D-4887-9756-9D030CE8BFA7.jpeg
 
Tut tut @StealthP3D, perhaps not the most constructive attitude, is it? Plucking up nodules with a floating robot and sending them up a hose like a vacuum cleaner is a clever idea in a needful area.

The couple behind the solar yacht company Silent Yachts outsourced the marine architecture and boat building, IIRC.

While it is true that the would be nodule collectors may need to bring aboard some further expertise on the engineering side and, likely, the money side, that is doable. Another response might be:

Great direction! I love, love the low impact plucking of the nodules.

The hose to raise the nodules seems like the weak link, at least out of the gate. It seems failure prone and costly to develop and to deploy, especially if you’re talking miles beneath the surface.

Since you’re developing the buoyant plucking robot, why not develop a second type of robot to ferry the nodules to a collector ship (or submarine)?

The multiple robots approach may give you better ability to scale from a tiny operation to a small to middling size operation while you prove out your approach—potentially adding the hose later. You’d also spread the failure risks across multiple units reducing the chance of a complete shutdown of the system if the hose fails.

The solar energy collection at the surface may help with the energy economics.

Perhaps they thought this through or perhaps not, but at least this approach engages folks, whereas what may be taken as "Pshaww" is off-putting.

Why is this relevant to Tesla and tech investors? We are living through an era of accelerating innovation. An open and encouraging, if critical, attitude towards innovative ideas will stand the investor in good stead.
I recall manganese nodule "mining" from the TV back in the 80's, might even have been the 70's, maybe Tomorrow's World on the BBC - sounded like it was pretty easy back then, just a big underwater vacuum-cleaner, basically

But indeed, deep sea is hard, very similar conditions to space
 
Regarding Waymo Stuck - very valuable video, BUT keep in mind - this is early times, it's normal - we might see even weirder situations happening - imagine if someone took over control via attack, it's important to get this right.

I had "fleet wide hack" very high up on my investment-threat list close to elon dying for a long time, and so far they managed to not have one - so imho Tesla track record is the best for now

No sensible hacker would do a fleet-wide hack on robotaxis right now.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: Krugerrand
Hi folks,

IMO, we are now entering the "Battle for the 200-day Moving Average". Here's a chart of the past 200 trading days: [note the MA(200) curve in green]

sc.TSLA.2021-05-12.200d-MA.png


Here are a few simple observations:
  • the MA(200) will be flatter for the next 10 sessions, as the SP contributions beginning from July 28, 2020 drop out of the moving avg (one per day)
  • shortzes usual technique is to try to 'ride-the-curve' but their immediate problem is that the MA(200) curve is going UP (and they can not stop that)
  • there's a large Options expiry event coming up on the 3rd Friday of June (currently 1.06M open contracts for June 19, 2020) with Max Pain at $450
  • BUT the "Highest Put" for that day is at the $1 Strike Price which skews Max Pain, so let's also look at an Open Interest Chart:
OI.as-of.2021-05-12.for3rdFriJun2021.png

So we do see that there are 29K Put contracts open at the $400 Strike. This will indeed be a powerful lure for options writers (mostly Market Makers), but there are also substantial numbers of Put contracts open at 500, 550, and 600 Strikes.

Normally, hitting the 200-Day Moving Average is like ringing the dinner bell for large funds and retail investors. I do think the recent co-ordinated, comprehensive FUD campaigne has been an attempt to freeze some hands. Luckily, institutional investors don't pay much attention to FUD (especially long debunked and painfuly obvious FUD). Although, doubtless many low-information retail investors will remain on the sideline as they've been coached to do by their mentors at CNBC teletubbies. :p

So, for something we can quantify, where can the MA(200) go if there is a deliberate effort by shortzes and wedgies to move the SP toward Max Pain for the 3rd Fri in Jun?

Let's do the math (pardon the wait while I tab over to my worksheet)... If the SP marched in equal daily steps starting today to hit the dream value for MMs by their expiry date, even then the MA(200) would peak about 600 on Wed, Jun 16 and still be over 599 on the big Options expiry day, Fri June 18, 2021.

This is up from the current value of around 581, and it is as relentless as the tide, nay a tsnami. Shortzes just can not manipulate the SP hard enough to move the MA(200) like that. IMO, many long-term investors will hear the dinner bell ringing, if shortzes are so foolish as to pursue this misguided course of action. :p

My conclusion: Imma HODL. Surprise!

Cheers!