I think you're right. Shanghai loaded the Lake Geneva RoRo on May 5th....likely from April production sitting in the logistics yard on April 30th. Loading the ship took a day and a half. These vehicles would not have been included in the April "sales" reported by the China Passenger Car Association.
Shipments from Fremont and Shanghai continue at a blistering pace. Quoting others on this forum, "Q2 may be an epic head fake". FUD gives the appearance of problems but we will see another record quarter. Q2 ship loading time as of yesterday continues to be 38% ahead of Q1.
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source of data: @FMossotto on Twitter
We also know that the sources for the CPCA are indirect. Thus strict definitions of 'sales' do not apply. Further the calculations of production, exports and sales are frequently subject to miscounts. Even the definitive global auto industry source for sales and production, Marklines, shows 20,438 Model 3 and 5407 Model Y for China April sales. That explicitly excludes exports.
These numbers have been revised twice thus far from credible sources. In my opinion there are several data changes happening with April forward, partly because Chinese registration and shipping data are themselves undergoing updates. From our perspective we need to understand that Tesla accounting conventions are not precisely equal to the Chinese data, partly because ownership in China changes hands prior to registration, not simultaneously. Another major change was the Shanghai Auto Show in April, which seems to have shifted quite a lot of sales from April to May.
Clearly there is not sufficient data to reach final conclusions about what happened in April. However, put in context it is impossible to end out with negative conclusions. That is my opinion, anyway. We also need to think about the continuing acceleration of sales in Europe as Tesla gradually adds Eastern and Southeastern Europe sales, Superchargers and support. Individually none of these are big markets. However we are very near Supercharger coverage including Greece and Turkey plus the connecting countries. China production will be dominant there until Germany is at scale.
So, looking at April in isolation for China sales quite misses the point. Tesla is rapidly going Europe-wide, and that will drive demand growth and development for China, Germany and beyond. Even if April misses China expectations the remainder of the Quarter is representing fundamental market expansions.
This will not be the last strange quarter as supplies move to fill initial demand in places completely off the TMC grid. There also is a substantial increase in economic activity in most of the new markets. Tesla MUST pay attention those developments before Brandenburg ramps up. Just watch the logistics and don't obsess over month to month in any country. Please!
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