Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

I'm not worried about the Lightning. Obviously, the deafening silence about Tesla is annoying and unfair. But that's life, no sense in getting too emotional about it. So long as Tesla isn't excluded from the pending EV incentive program - and they won't be, for reasons others have explained - I don't care too much.

Honestly, this whole spectacle is the most honest signal Ford could give about how precarious their position is. Consider the audiences of each truck appearance so far. The Cybertruck was unveiled to a crowd of tech enthusiasts and has been trundling around a factory worksite being ogled and posted on social media by the blue collar workforce. The Lightning is doing exclusive events with the President and the press corps. Ford can tweet all they want about how this is a serious work truck. The proof is in the pudding.

Ford is asking (or demanding, backed by the implicit threat of combined corporate and union political power) for public help because they are screwed without it. It would be satisfying for Ford to die painfully for its sins, but vengeance doesn't help anyone much. Tesla doesn't need the help to win this fight. But they'll get it anyways even though they're not the poster child (or even on the poster) for the publicity campaign. I almost prefer it that way. At least there might be fewer headlines about Tesla needing government subsidies to compete.

Plus, Biden driving around in an electric truck is good for EV adoption overall. The truck enthusiast crowd may be among the most resistant to electrification and Ford making an EV truck may soften that resistance. As folks here have pointed out many times, once someone is actually buying an EV, they're more likely to shop around and consider a Tesla. If they buy an F150 and it doesn't measure up to their coworker's Cybertruck, they may switch.

If the Cybertruck lives up to its promise, it's going to have a slew of competitive advantages both for consumers and for Tesla that other manufacturers will struggle to overcome. The folded steel exoskeleton, for example. Even if other manufacturers can somehow secure enough batteries at a competitive price (which we know is unlikely), people here and elsewhere have identified first-principles advantages to this engineering approach such as low manufacturing costs and body durability.

Breathe, everyone.

Please everyone accelerate the mission and get the better more practical union and made in america built ford F150 EV version, and all of you please cancel your Cybertruck orders so i can get mine sooner. Thank you Biden for accelerating my order!

 

[OrthoSurg]

It's hilarious (because there aren't words to convey how sad and disappointing it is) to me how everyone tries to pretend Tesla doesn't exist, like it's some foreign (alien?) manufacturer that slipped in under the radar and now makes cars within our borders. With American workers. With about as impressive an American supply chain as you can get.

The opposite should be true - Tesla should be held up as THE pinnacle of American innovation, entrepreneurship, dedication, and perseverance. But we continue to coddle the laggards - who have all but crippled our future on this planet - without acknowledging the cream that has risen to the top.

I totally agree with you, however to the defense of the laggards, they employ a lot of workers that would never be able to adapt to another EV production line from another company if their company had to go bankrupt. My guess is that Biden is trying to preserve the american Way of life for those workers who have been working to those companies for over 30 years who have not the capacity for plan B.

 

[mars_or_bust]

In-your-face pro union and pro car dealerships - how can he not be anti Tesla at heart?....

 

[jerry33]

Looks to me like another spineless politician prioritizing reelection over integrity. The whole thing stinks of favoritism.

True, but until term limits equal one, the politicians' job is to win the next election. This means not talking about Tesla if you are in a union state.

 

[jerry33]

I am not a mechanical engineer, but I don't see where in a car micron precision is needed.

The problem is that each part has a specified tolerance. When parts go together each part's actual tolerance is added to the other parts. There is also a tolerance for the assembly but the more parts there are the harder it is to keep the assembly within tolerance. Having the first parts precise down to the micron means that the entire assembly will be much tighter.

 

[mars_or_bust]

True, but until term limits equal one, the politicians' job is to win the next election. This means not talking about Tesla if you are in a union state.

that would perhaps be a semi-reasonable argument (for a spineless politician) if not for the fact that Biden NEVER talks about Tesla, in or out of a union state...

 

[Singuy]

Well the market wasn't impressed with Biden's visit or the truck. F stock was down to flat today

 

[Chunky Jr.]

In the first quarter it was looking like today could be a blow out win, but they stalled and the lead slowly frittered away leading to a squeaker of a win. Larger than average sized crowd, and in the last 10, the average attendance has been larger than the season average. Fun fact : this was the first Tuesday with a win since 4/20. That has to be some kind of omen.

Today
Score: 577.87
Margin of W/L: 1.04
Attendance: 36,687,222
High - Low: 32.87

Season
Record: 45-49
Total margin of wins: 980.47
Total margin of losses: -1,108.27
YTD gain/loss: -127.80 -18.11%
Best Win: 110.58 Mar 9
Worst Loss: -68.83 Jan 11
Last 10: 3-7
Streak: W1
Avg margin of victory: 21.79
Avg margin of defeat: -22.62
Avg Attendance: 31,768,230
Avg Attendance of Last 10: 32,659,001
Avg High - Low: 39.30
Avg H - L of Last 10: 31.20

 

[gabeincal]

Just came back from Fremont. Seems that every part of the factory is filled with refresh Model S vehicles but some have been moved since my last flight on Sat. 1 ro-ro had a few S' on it ready to leave the delivery lot. 3&Y seems as usual, lots of deliveries and moving around. Roadrunner parking lot full. Video will be released today to my patreon supporters and tomorrow to the general public.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just came back from Fremont. Seems that every part of the factory is filled with refresh Model S vehicles but some have been moved since my last flight on Sat. 1 ro-ro had a few S' on it ready to leave the delivery lot. 3&Y seems as usual, lots of deliveries and moving around. Roadrunner parking lot full. Video will be released today to my patreon supporters and tomorrow to the general public.


View attachment 663585

Soo..........you're saying Fred's completely full of.....you know what

 

[gabeincal]

Soo..........you're saying Fred's completely full of.....you know what

I'm saying there is a large volume (i wouldn't go as far as 10k though) of refresh S' parked in unusual places waiting for something. Anything beyond that would be speculation on my part.

 

[dl003]

Just came back from Fremont. Seems that every part of the factory is filled with refresh Model S vehicles but some have been moved since my last flight on Sat. 1 ro-ro had a few S' on it ready to leave the delivery lot. 3&Y seems as usual, lots of deliveries and moving around. Roadrunner parking lot full. Video will be released today to my patreon supporters and tomorrow to the general public.


View attachment 663585

By “usual”, you mean they are being dumped at the usual spot in the ocean?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm saying there is a large volume (i wouldn't go as far as 10k though) of refresh S' parked in unusual places waiting for something. Anything beyond that would be speculation on my part.

Pretty much if it seems like cars are being moved onto the trucks and sent out for delivery like usual....then Fred and the way he portrayed his article is full of it. If the issue was in any way serious, they would have stopped production by this point

Nice to see S’s being loaded onto trucks and shipped out

 

[MC3OZ]

The problem is that each part has a specified tolerance. When parts go together each part's actual tolerance is added to the other parts. There is also a tolerance for the assembly but the more parts there are the harder it is to keep the assembly within tolerance. Having the first parts precise down to the micron means that the entire assembly will be much tighter.

Reducing the number of joins, particularly welded joints, is another big advantage of casting IMO.

The casting is a precise shape and size, in a way that a number of joined pieces can never be.

Each individual piece has a tolerance or error bar, every join has a tolerance or error bar. Welding seems precise to us, but pieces only need to be slightly out of position when they are welded, or may be the temperature variance can affect results.

There is also tolerance on bolts, rivets, any kind of join we can think of.

The best part is one part.

 

[woodisgood]

I totally agree with you, however to the defense of the laggards, they employ a lot of workers that would never be able to adapt to another EV production line from another company if their company had to go bankrupt. My guess is that Biden is trying to preserve the american Way of life for those workers who have been working to those companies for over 30 years who have not the capacity for plan B.

Yeah I do get that. And I don’t think workers - auto, fossil, miners, etc. - should be left behind in the coming industrial energy revolution. There need to be retraining and certification programs that give workers the necessary skills to transition. Yes, the folks that may be close to retirement may have a difficult time. So take care of them. Provide parachutes even. But don’t try to squelch the necessary progress because we can’t figure out how else to help them.

At the same time, it’s not like a factory line worker is going to have vastly different responsibilities on an EV line vs ICE. A screw gun is a screw gun and a bolt is a bolt. If you can plug in one type of connector you can probably plug in another.

I agree that advanced manufacturing plants - no matter what they’re building -will potentially utilize more robotics and offer fewer manual labor jobs in the future. But I doubt the folks working in the GA tent at Tesla are using skills that couldn’t be learned by someone who has traditionally worked in ICE vehicle assembly.

 

[gabeincal]

Pretty much if it seems like cars are being moved onto the trucks and sent out for delivery like usual....then Fred and the way he portrayed his article is full of it. If the issue was in any way serious, they would have stopped production by this point

Nice to see S’s being loaded onto trucks and shipped out

Bearing in mind I saw a total of 6 S' on the ro-ro. And saw hundreds if not ~ a thousand S' waiting off the delivery lot in various places.

 

[Criscmt]

In pretty much all TSLA groups across various platforms I am part of, retail investors are selling CCs. Most of them never were in options before.
Selling CCs leads to downward pressure on the stock. One can say, these retailers selling CCs won’t have even a marginal effect. Is this very likely the case, that there’s no marginal effect too here?
Another aspect of this I am wondering, is it getting overwhelmingly one sided?
Related, I wish I could see the historical numbers on shorting, including calls sold, across the market, might put this in better perspective.

@Curt Renz @generalenthu @Artful Dodger @StealthP3D @bxr140 @Lycanthrope and others

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

We’ll see if it’s even actually a full BEV truck

Ford F-150 Electric Pickup May Get Newly Patented Range Extender in Its Bed

It looks deceptively like a toolbox, but it could be used to increase the range of the upcoming electric F-150 pickup truck.

www.caranddriver.com

• The range extender would act as a generator, recharging the battery of the vehicle using a small motor.

Why does the BEV truck in the patent have a tailpipe?

 

[Cherry Wine]

In pretty much all TSLA groups across various platforms I am part of, retail investors are selling CCs. Most of them never were in options before.
Selling CCs puts downward pressure on the stock, one can say, these retailers selling CCs won’t have even a marginal effect. Is this very likely the case, that there’s no marginal effect too here?
Another aspect of this I am wondering, is it get overwhelmingly one sided?
Related, I wish I could see the historical numbers on shorting, including calls sold, across the market, might put this in better perspective.

@Curt Renz @generalenthu @Artful Dodger @StealthP3D @bxr140 @Lycanthrope and others

You're correct that selling covered calls will force MMs to sell stock as a delta hedge against their call purchases. I've thought about this effect myself, but I doubt that retail has the firepower to generate that much downward pressure, and the majority of those selling calls are very bullish and sell deep OTM calls that have little delta and therefore require minimal selling in order to hedge. Beyond that, we're just not seeing much in the way of volume, which is the bigger story in my opinion.

 

[traxila]

The truth is TSLA is the EV leader in the country. By omitting that truth, he's misleading the American people. Even worse that he gives Ford, which hasn't earned the credit, the favorable treatment. We can argue about the legality and morality and what not until both of us are blue in the face but we both know the guy succumbed to Detroit. That's not what I voted for.

So you voted for something that has never existed in the history of politics?

Let the politicians spout their pandering nonsense. In terms of actions, we should get what we want if anything is handed out for BEVS.