Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I can't imagine they would cancel Plaid+ if it was more popular than the Plaid. In that case, cancel the Plaid and just ship the higher priced Plaid+. I could see them cancelling Plaid+ if it is only marginally better than the Plaid and it isn't worth the extra manufacturing overhead. I could also see them cancelling it because Roadster could take its place.

You're not cancelling Plaid: you're cancelling an existing contract for 38.5 thousand tonnes of battery cells per year.

You got 38.5 thousand tonnes of spare battery cells?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

 

[elasalle]

Can best/costliest car (S plaid) in company lineup have battery tech inferior to lower end MY ?

 

[mongo]

What's up with the Tesla site? Different Ranges and prices if I access from my phone vs my desktop? Just a glitch?

From Desktop site:

View attachment 670601View attachment 670602

From Mobile site:

View attachment 670603View attachment 670604

My desktop matches your mobile.

 

[SarahsDad]

My desktop matches your mobile.

I just deleted my original post - the desktop had the 21" wheels selected, hence the difference in price and range. Quite a hit to range tho.

 

[Beltsbear]

Yes Power density IS the measure of charging/discharging capacity for a given weight.

maybe you’re confusing it with energy density?

I.e. Power density is measured in W / kg and energy density in Wh / kg.

This is flat out wrong. Discharging/charging (as in the SPEED which is what we are talking about) is affected by the distance electrons need to go in the cell and resistance inside the cell (and other factors well outside of density). A 4680 cell has more potential distance for electricity to travel given identical cell makeup otherwise. This resistance makes heat during charging and discharging. These things do not scale linearly.

 

[wipster]

I've said it before, but I'll say it again, "Oh baby, that SP is what I like...!"

 

[Tslynk67]

If you want to dabble into options i could recommend CSP
Sell i.e. a 580 Put. If tesla stays above it: ~500 bucks for free. If it dips below: congrats you just bought 100 TSLA for 575

I prefer selling puts to directly buying stock .. you often get a discount if MM get their way. But you can loose the upside if the stock explodes.

There is no free lunch. If you get extra money you always give things up. If you sell covered calls on your shares you get money, but you give up all gains above the chosen strike.

This week (dependen on how the event goes) some 650-lottery-tickets also look very attractive

But always watch your greeks!
I always display Portfolio-Theta (= what do i gain/lose in the next 24hrs if the stock does not move). At the moment i have a lot of calls for various dates open - and pay for them with various Credit-Put-Spreads.
In non-event-weeks or after a runup i go less heavy on calls (=delta) and more onto theta-strategies (like CSP, CPS, etc.).

Not advice. Just a bit background-information for people dipping their toes in the water

Well if your CC's go ITM you can roll them up and out for more premium,rinse-repeat all the way up to whatever your acceptable sell-price happens to be, then let them ride. You'll hit your target and make some wonga along the way

You can protect yourself against a big rise on the upside with LEAPS

 

[Nocturnal]

Finally something will happen with Tesla this week. Feels like forever. I know the reaction is usually bad right after, but surely this time! Even if the market is too dumb to get it, I'll be happy I'm sure.

 

[wipster]

Lucid is not planning for a 500+ mile battery this year and it's not clear to me they will get to it next year either.

Lucid also doesn't have Superchargers, making range even more important to them...

 

[Buckminster]

I believe there was an announcement about the Plaid+, said announcement being generally regarded as a negative influence on the SP.

Remind me what a Plaid+ is again?

The head of Tesla Energy has left the company. Not sure if pushed out or not.

He tried jumping off a solar roof but his division haven't finished any yet....

 

[SarahsDad]

Been thinking more about a possible Plaid range boost announcement on Thursday.

Back in December I'd quoted these since-deleted Reddit posts from TheMightyFuji, who claimed to work at Tesla. They seem to be even more relevant now.

Some more comments from our Tesla employee on Reddit. Very bullish.


View attachment 617642

So even without the 4680 cells, it looks like they could get "the Plaid numbers". Remember, back in December there was no Plaid+, so the "Plaid numbers" would've meant 520M range.

Then the comment that the Lucid "will be obsolete before it ever rolls out of the factory". I don't think you'd make that comment if Lucid
stayed the King of Range.

So maybe with the old form factor but with new chemistry and structural pack, they're able to squeeze out >500M range? We'll see.

 

[Singuy]

Been thinking more about a possible Plaid range boost announcement on Thursday.

Back in December I'd quoted these since-deleted Reddit posts from TheMightyFuji, who claimed to work at Tesla. They seem to be even more relevant now.

View attachment 670610
So even without the 4680 cells, it looks like they could get "the Plaid numbers". Remember, back in December there was no Plaid+, so the "Plaid numbers" would've meant 520M range.

Then the comment that the Lucid "will be obsolete before it ever rolls out of the factory". I don't think you'd make that comment if Lucid
stayed the King of Range.

So maybe with the old form factor but with new chemistry and structural pack, they're able to squeeze out >500M range? We'll see.

Yeah I was referring to this when I said I didn't think the original plaid will be on 4680s. But then Elon on Twitter said different so...I guess plans change.

 

[Todd Burch]

Even if the same old form factor of 18650, and EVEN if the chemistry hasn't changed, the new pack design could result in less weight or volume, allowing for either a lighter pack or room for more 18650s. Either or both could contribute to additional range.

 

[jerry33]

I'm trying to think what the implications are. Assuming Tesla Insurance leverages your very accurate driving data, then its insurance will reward safe, infrequent drivers with lower rates, maybe even dynamically (e.g. if I stop driving to work every day, my rate immediately drops a commensurate amount). But presumably, Tesla Insurance will penalize fast, frequent drivers with higher rates. Naturally, those people will skip Tesla Insurance and opt to go with a traditional company for the lower rate.

How long after Tesla Insurance hits their market (e.g. I'm in Canada) before traditional, data-ignorant insurance companies start arbitrarily jacking rates for anyone with a Tesla? (because they assume you're one of the fast, frequent Tesla drivers)

If you are using FSD or AP, frequent shouldn't be a factor.

 

[Cherry Wine]

@The Accountant hmmm (behind a paywall unfortunately - but interesting)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402002551386558471

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

If you are using FSD or AP, frequent shouldn't be a factor.

If FSD is perfect you should get a lower insurance fee the more you drive since FSD can't save you when every other car without FSD is aiming for your parked Tesla. Drive 24/7 and you are 100% safe thanks to FSD. At least I think that's how Elon sees it working.

 

[Baumisch]

attention German perspective:
i used to own the cheapest 1 series bmw and drive weekly 500km (300ish miles) nonstop in 3hours - vmax of the 116i was 210kmh, average on the full distance (Dresden to Frankfurt ) was around 160kmh - at That speed it took 11l/100km, so I still had a bit range in the tank afterwards.

at 160kmh my model s will take around 250wh/km so with plaid+ this would have been barely doable w/o charging inbetween - and in Winter it’s not doable at all

dont tell me 400 epa Miles is enough range , it’s not


ps: I still drive the trip every other month, takes me around 7h now with the 85 being nerfed by tesla #chargegate

 

[NicoV]

green

Big Funds just finished reading TMC discussion on Plaid + , and May deliveries .... conclusion :
Plaid + cancel = good decision
May Deliveries = solid

You mean there was a conclusion?

 

[kengchang]

attention German perspective:
i used to own the cheapest 1 series bmw and drive weekly 500km (300ish miles) nonstop in 3hours - vmax of the 116i was 210kmh, average on the full distance (Dresden to Frankfurt ) was around 160kmh - at That speed it took 11l/100km, so I still had a bit range in the tank afterwards.

at 160kmh my model s will take around 250wh/km so with plaid+ this would have been barely doable w/o charging inbetween - and in Winter it’s not doable at all

dont tell me 400 epa Miles is enough range , it’s not

New S/X has heat pump