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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The CEO of a company should be expected to want what he wants. It's up to the people in charge of the divisions of the company to get through to the CEO about the practicality and feasibility of what the CEO wants. The guy who was responsible for the initial model 3 production ramp was fired

I'll reiterate exactly what I said in the post you quoted me on. It not healthy to have the Head of any division in Tesla saying yes to Elon not matter how unfeasible it is. It's very unhealthy and will almost assuredly turn into disaster at some point.

We don't have to do a back and forth on this. I don't want to occupy the thread. I think everyone knows my view on this and once again, I love Jerome. He was vital to Tesla at many points in the past. I wish him the best!
Except that's not how Tesla or SpaceX works. Elon doesn't work with naysayers. If there's a probable path based on first principles then it's going to be visited no matter the challenge. And sometimes it hits a dead end, other times you have self landing rockets. We invest into Tesla because of this, because there are few people saying "No Elon, that' can't be done" vs "we will see what we can do". If you can't tell already, Elon and his team is all about hands on approach to failure, vs people sitting in a meeting naming all the ways it can potentially fail.
 
Except that's not how Tesla or SpaceX works. Elon doesn't work with naysayers. If there's a probable path based on first principles then it's going to be visited no matter the challenge. And sometimes it hits a dead end, other times you have self landing rockets. We invest into Tesla because of this, because there are few people saying "No Elon, that' can't be done" vs "we will see what we can do". If you can't tell already, Elon and his team is all about hands on approach to failure, vs people sitting in a meeting naming all the ways it can potentially fail.

What you just wrote has nothing to do with what I have been saying and it’s pretty clear we’re not on the same wave length here so we can let the discussion die. I think we can all agree Tesla is and will be fine going forward
 
Highly likely it will be confirmed by tomorrow, if not Wed. The CPCA report usually comes out by the 2nd week of the month.

For those of you in the US, it's expected at 4am EST (1am PST) tomorrow. So in about 5 hours.
1623120248041.png
 
Yeah, seems like another example of traditional companies making business decisions based on "gut instinct", know-it-all execs "with 50 years [legacy] experience", "my cousin lives in Denver and drives there a lot", and other biased inputs.

Volkswagen was forced into creating the Electrify America charging network as a result of a lawsuit brought by the government for gaming the EPA emissions. It's a wholly owned subsidiary of Volkswagen America who has to spend $2 billion dollars on EV infrastructure in the U.S.

How do you spend $2 billion in the U.S. without building a world-class charging network? Easy, spend it all in the cities where you sell your EV's. For all we know the holes around major cities are purposeful to delay the day that EV's can actually replace ICE for people that actually travel around. I mean, EV's could gut their profitable ICE sales!

But, yeah, it could also just be stupidity. Hard to say which it is without knowing more.
 
You guys think it’s possible Jerome just wanted to retire and enjoy the fruits of his hard labor?

I know, crazy idea. Nobody wants to retire and enjoy life. Especially on this forum. Everyone here will work forever, so that means everyone at Tesla should do the same. 🙄

/s
Why not go out in style- after successful production of Semi - supposed to happen by end of year?
 
For those of you in the US, it's expected at 4am EST (1am PST) tomorrow. So in about 5 hours.
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Gonna be hard to sleep tonight 😉.

While the number might come in lower than the rumored numbers....if the 44k number is true it could kick off a pretty massive rally. 44k production has massive implications for Q2 and the rest of the year
 
Gonna be hard to sleep tonight 😉.

While the number might come in lower than the rumored numbers....if the 44k number is true it could kick off a pretty massive rally. 44k production has massive implications for Q2 and the rest of the year
Not only for this year, but it demonstrates how smoothly Tesla can ramp a new factory once it's up and running giving analysts a preview of the Berlin/Austin potential and their impact on 2022 and 2023.
 
Based on the equation currently dictating out universe.....

1Q blockbuster deliveries and revenue = SP plummet

therefore.....

TMC doom & gloom = massive SP appreciation
So, if we concentrate on the depressing tax implications of SP appreciation, we can generate a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop...
 
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But that is only part of the equation. How long can it sustain those levels? 5 seconds? 5 minutes?

You don't have enough information to know if they will charge faster or slower.
I think everyone is on the same page as far as geometry goes: tabless has a shorter path to active area. There is no circumferential travel in the foil with tabless.
Smaller batteries with tabless construction may have better cooling if there is a radial temperature gradient because the outside is being cooled. If all the cooling is done where the continuous tab is welded to a cooling plate (out the bottom) smaller cells will have less of a surface area advantage.
 
But that is only part of the equation. How long can it sustain those levels? 5 seconds? 5 minutes?

You don't have enough information to know if they will charge faster or slower.

We will get some answers at the event..

What people are missing with the Plaid is the clue is in the name. The special part isn't the battery, it is the Plaid Drive which Elon described as "Almost Alien Technology". This is the first available car with that drive.

It will also be in the Roadster and the Plaid Cybertruck. The Plaid Cybertruck one option for people wanting 4680 cells.
The cells to be used in the Roadster are currently unknown,

The targets I think Tesla are trying to hit are;-
  • Test rides around the track will be exciting, memorable, and slightly scary,
  • Track performance and drag performance will smoke most/all other currently available production cars.
  • Autobahn performance including range at high speeds should be good.
Apart from aero-drag a key consideration is handling and efficiency at high speeds. Not needing to slow down as much for corners and low energy consumption / heat generation during high speed cruising.

I don't know if Tesla will hit the targets, but we will soon know
 
I think everyone is on the same page as far as geometry goes: tabless has a shorter path to active area. There is no circumferential travel in the foil with tabless.
Smaller batteries with tabless construction may have better cooling if there is a radial temperature gradient because the outside is being cooled. If all the cooling is done where the continuous tab is welded to a cooling plate (out the bottom) smaller cells will have less of a surface area advantage.
I've been working my way through today's posts and was waiting to get done before writing about this, in case someone already had. I was happy to see this post.

Between Battery Day and The Limiting Factor videos this fact related by @22522 has been made abundantly clear.

For anyone who is unable to visualize it, imagine unrolling the guts of any of these batteries.
  • For this example, let's say you have a ten foot long ribbon each of Anode and Cathode material.
  • Place a single tab somewhere on the edge, then measure from that single point to the material at the furthermost end of the ribbon. If the tab were placed in the middle it will be a minimum of five feet for an electron to travel from the tab to that furthest point.
  • Now, on the ten foot ribbon, make the top edge a continuous conducting edge. The longest distance (max resistance) from the conductive edge will be limited to the width of the ribbon (80 mm on a 4680).
  • An electron traveling five feet will encounter a lot more resistance than it would traveling at most 80 mm.
  • Plus, the total amount of conductive material on that long edge is several orders of magnitude greater than a single tab design and will be significantly less resistive to current flow, and, less prone to be heated by concentration of the current to a very small area a tab offers.
  • Likewise, this edge can carry heat away from anywhere on that ribbon more efficiently than it having to travel through layers of Anode and Cathode wraps to get to the outside of the can.
This is the beauty of the Tabless design. It allows increased current flow, reduces heat generation, and can more easily move heat from the cell. This is almost like cheating. Almost. I honestly can't understand why it wasn't done this way from the beginning.

I've also been waiting to hear that Tabless will be applied to the production of other batteries besides the 4680 too. Even without going to dry electrode, using tabless on the other batteries would carry the same benefits.
 
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you only need above 400 miles if you don't have a reliable, fast , high coverage supercharger network

I don't see what all the fuss over Plaid + is ... a few years ago the thinking was that model S would be cancelled overall ... certainly don't need multiple designs at this segment especially if different production process .... also Plaid + does not even make sense ... it is just Plaid

OT: driving NYS thruway this weekend got bored counting Tesla's.. they are everywhere

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Yet another fatuous misstatement. And I needn’t talk only of Alaska, where “520 miles” of range might get me 220-240 real miles on a mild winter day (and Hey! We’re sortakinda gonna get our first Supercharger before year’s end...and Alaska is, after all not even three times the size of Texas).

Rather, let’s stick to the lesser-48. Would you like to drive one of the single most beautiful cross-country roads in the nation? Try US Rte 93. From its informal extension on the AZ-Mexico border (it formally begins in Wickenburg - and I was instrumental in getting that cowboy town to host one of the first generations of SpCs), and wends its way through incomparably beautiful, supremely varied and very, very sparsely populated country before the MT-Canada border (and then, by extension, on into Banff/Jasper). Supercharge-drivable? Nope.

Any serious long-distance traveler can come up with a multitude of terrific journeys that need ===>real<=== range. For as long as the Cybertruck has been in the public eye, I have read countless stories of the trips people hope to take in it. Another hundred or so SpCs in the LA basin, etc., will never, ever enable these trips to come to pass. RANGE is king.
 
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I think we went through this yesterday already, no?

I'm the biggest bull on the block and eternally optimistic, but my initial reaction is that AFAIK, Tesla are not exporting MY from CN

Please correct me if I'm wrong on that point
Make of this what you will. Doesn’t say where they are exported from.