Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Maybe its because we have a Kia Soul EV with a drag coefficient of 0.35, and I think its a very good vehicle?

Fun fact: Kia doesn't make any profit on their EVs, and doesn't expect to for several years.

 

[mongo]

You’re likely right.
They’re built on the same platform. So, it’d be hard to make it much different.

@Fact Checking
I thought it was longer, but it looks mostly taller. Same width so IP/ dash is carry over, maybe half shafts and parts of suspension too.
Pack penthouse comes up in same spot on both.
Check out the similarities in the skeletons...

 

[Sean Wagner]

A side note: California is just this instant running on a smidgeon more than 80% emissions-free electric power, with just under half supplied by solar cells. Source: California ISO - Supply

 

[Cosmacelf]

I think it was Elon who made the point that it's a level of maturity for a company to become more capital efficient and grow via internally generated cash, and that this kind of maturity has feedback effects that improve efficiency and growth immensely.

Basically the Model 3 ramp up was a capital financed, "forced growth" event, and it almost broke Tesla.

Elon's reaction to it: never again.

They were able to fix their assembly lines via Sprung Tents and ingenuity, using minimal capex, and just in a few weeks.

Tesla is able to build the Shanghai Gigafactory from just $500m of capex - a fraction of the Model 3 capex.

Tesla is not a small startup anymore that can force growth via external capital anymore. They need to stay the smart Amazon growth machine of the last two quarters.

I fully agree.

Yes, Tesla decided to not raise cash not for external reasons, but for internal reasons. As I keep saying, Tesla does not have a strong management culture. GM can decide to bring a new car to market, and voila, five years later, it’ll be selling without a lot of sturm und drang at the executive level.

At Tesla, Elon and his small team of executives are very involved in product launches. Would they like to sell the Y this year, the semi and continue to ramp the 3? Sure, but they simply don’t have the executive bandwidth to do it. They don’t have the deep management bench that allows them to do many difficult things at once. And note, when GM does something new, it isn’t really new, and it takes five years. When Tesla does something new, it really is new and they do it in three years.

Yes, Tesla is cash constrained in that they don’t have the cash to deliver the Y this year. But they couldn’t deliver the Y this year for other reasons anyways, so it isn’t really fair to characterize Tesla as cash constrained.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I thought its only me.

He gained lot of weight during the production hell times, but it appears to me that he lost most of it. His social media behavior is different too. I still remember the "dark ages" when he repeated tanked the stock price and we were like "this guy will never learn".

it seems to me the gained weight and the nasty social media posts are due to tremendous amount of pressure at that time. The short thesis is that Tesla is facing bankwupcy since they can't sell cars. I think if that is true, Elon may not be able to loss weight and laugh when people comment on his shoes.

I agree. He was looking pretty bad last fall, but looks a lot healthier now. Go Elon!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Seems they issued some kind of correction:

Correction: Model Y Timing in Line with Company Expectations | Loup Ventures

And that correction completely undercut their thesis although that didn’t stop them from lamely continuing with it.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Height and volume mostly, I believe. Length and width is about the same, right?

Length seems bigger to me. Backed up by 7 seat option and hatch.

 

[DurandalAI]

My only gripe with Tesla and Elon right now is...…...would it kill you guys to issue a statement about the status of SR/SR+ orders since the announcement and/or make a statement about still being production constrained and will be for the foreseeable future? We've seen a couple funds meet with Tesla's IR and come away saying "we get the impression they are selling every car they make"

Normally I would say that they don't need to be responding the media and FUD because of the on-going false narrative but considering they're kinda partially responsible for the confusion going on(price cuts, store closing, not commenting on SR margin, etc...), it sure would be nice to see them come to the defense of the stock and their shareholders. Feels like we're being left out to dry a bit until Q1 production/deliveries(for the demand narrative) and the Q1 earnings(for all of the worries about cash crunch, margins, etc..)

This is all short term noise and I'm glad for everyone that has the funds and ability to be buying right now.

Well, the quarter ends in half a month, I suspect we'll get an update a little after that.

 

[SebastianR]

Seems they issued some kind of correction:

Correction: Model Y Timing in Line with Company Expectations | Loup Ventures

I can't believe it. Turns out their whole premise is wrong (surprise, surprise...) yet their conclusion remains the same?!?

I stand by what I wrote here. (now looking for the "This is getting silly button" - seriously, I expect professionals to put in a bit more effort! My most junior interns do a better job than this!)

 

[TradingInvest]

We will see tons of white Model Ys on the street. So far I have seen about 10 ordering confirmations on Twitter and here, including my own, all of them are white. I think Tesla will be puzzled why white is so popular.

 

[jerry33]

We will see tons of white Model Ys on the street. So far I have seen about 10 ordering confirmations on Twitter and here, including my own, all of them are white. I think Tesla will be puzzled why white is so popular.

White shows less dirt than any other colour other than gray. Tesla no longer offers grey (silver).

 

[RobStark]

That is an idiotic comment. If they had a cash crunch they would LOWER the reservation amount. $2500 to me suggests that they think demand will be more than enough so there is no need to build a huge pile of orders they can't fill.

Their numbers suggest a decline though.

BMW Brand Sales Figures | GCBC

BMW Group - worldwide shipments 2017 | Statistic

 

[SO16]

Seriously?

No.

 

[brian45011]

I doubt extra cash would accelerate the timeline. Tesla has cash already and would raise more if they need it. Most likely the main bottleneck will be the speed suppliers can ramp up - other companies are less agile than Tesla. Another potential bottleneck is speed of hiring at GF1, which I also doubt could be accelerated with more cash. Grohmann could be another bottleneck if its resources are currently allocated to GF3.
My guess is that Tesla is aiming for 7k per week Y production by summer 2020, but doesn't want to give this guidance because they know there are always risks of delays.

Does Tesla need to expand the foot-print of GF-1 (Elon said it was 1/3rd complete) to meet the "fall next year" time-line? Looks like much of the site prep has been completed, and the site doesn't need the extensive geo-tech work necessary at Shanghai, so it could go up quickly if the structural steel, etc. has been ordered.

 

[dgodfrey]

Is there a source that tracks the number of configuration deposits that the Y has received so for or running total?
Market related:
Debated using the money earmarked to upgrade to FSD for $1,000 discount and use it instead to add to my shares. Do I take the guaranteed 33% return or gamble on Tesla at these fire sale numbers?
Final answer, put the FSD on cc and hope my $7,500 tax credit hits my account before the EOM.
Okay TSLA, your move. Don't make me regret this.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Oh how cute from Adam Jones to title his note today:

Y Buy a Model 3?

I don’t have to summarize his note, from that title you already can guess what narrative he is pushing, lol.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

TGIF

 

[ZachF]

We will see tons of white Model Ys on the street. So far I have seen about 10 ordering confirmations on Twitter and here, including my own, all of them are white. I think Tesla will be puzzled why white is so popular.

I have played with the color options and white looks by far the best on the MY, IMHO.... Seems others have come to this conclusion as well.

 

[adiggs]

We will see tons of white Model Ys on the street. So far I have seen about 10 ordering confirmations on Twitter and here, including my own, all of them are white. I think Tesla will be puzzled why white is so popular.

Oddball anecdote / support. My wife and I configured a Model Y, and concluded that it's the first car we've seen that didn't look good in red. We wanted our Roadster we have to be red (or Very Orange). My wife keeps asking me why we didn't get our X in red. She likes the 3 in Red. She lusts after the new Roadster in Red.

We looked at the other colors for the Y as well. We never like white cars. We decided that if we were to get a Model Y, it would be white (we're not getting a Model Y though). The other colors just aren't quite right somehow, at least as pictured on the website. We might get a new / different opinion from seeing one in in person.

 

[KSilver2000]

We will see tons of white Model Ys on the street. So far I have seen about 10 ordering confirmations on Twitter and here, including my own, all of them are white. I think Tesla will be puzzled why white is so popular.

White is just the popular color these days.
In my area, whenever I go to a local supercharger, I am surprised when less than half of the stalls are occupied by white Tesla’s. And not just Tesla, in general, a very large number of vehicles, especially SUVs, on the road are white that I see. After white, next popular is black/gray.