Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drax7]

If I were to unblock him, then I'd see their posts, and end up replying to them sometimes, but my posts would disappear into the aether. It'd be a waste of my time. I made my "can you see me?" post just to make sure they had actually blocked me, because I really didn't want to block them. I don't even block trolls. But I apparently had been blocked for criticizing their violation of the thread rules... so my choices were A) see things that I might respond to at some point but for which the replies will never be seen, or B) not see them, and thus not waste my time writing responses that will never be seen.

Surely you can see that B) was the only realistic choice. As much as I don't want that. But - if you ever hear that jhm has unblocked me, then just let me know and I'll gladly unblock them. That, however, is something I don't control.

Kiss and make up

 

[lklundin]

HEADLINE: Shortsville Times

Musk fleeing to China. Gets green card.

Next issue:

"Failing demand and missing profits cause Tesla to give up on the short range version also on the Model S and X".

I could probably get hired at CNBC.

 

[mongo]

Nope, the 85kWh and 90kWh packs have always had the double stacked modules. That wasn't new in the 100 kWh packs.

What are you trying to say?
Yes, the 85 and 90s were double stack also, but the original 40 (DOA) and 60 were not
The fact that I didn't call out the first double stack version doesn't change whether Tesla had to
'go through "reengineering, requalifying, retesting, and recertifying (in all markets)" for that?'

(Edit 75 kWh is also single stack).

 

[KarenRei]

Greeeeeen

 

[Causalien]

Please don't say these things without a little bit of research. Panasonic has had a battery plant in Dalian for some time, Dalian being an area where there are lots of Japanese-speaking people and a fairly long history of Japanese investment. One need not foment ancient rivalries. You might also need to check on Japanese consumer products companies that have had success in China.
Panasonic Factory in Dalian, China Begins Mass Production and Shipments of Automotive Lithium-ion Batteries | Headquarters News | Panasonic Newsroom Global

Oh cool didn't know that.

But I was mostly referring to the recent spat over the senkakou/diaoutai island and its aftermath. As well as panasonic's failed application to build a battery plant in shanghai. We all thought that was for giga3 at the time.

Not based off heresay or trying to sew discord. It's based on the discussions I've had with the Chinese I've met through business, travel and dated. These are pretty real human relationship based research. "little Japan" is how most of them start their sentences when the topic comes up. The younger generation might not be as extreme, but they get affected by how extreme their parents reactions are. By how dark Nanking feels when they visit that city. By how their parents blows up if they even talk about visiting Japan. Etc. Etc.

 

[ZachF]

MMD over?

 

[Tslynk67]

Elon seems to have arrived in The Netherlands this morning, after an overnight flight from China.

Schiphol Flights for 09-01-2019 (the yellow entry)
Credits to PaulusdB

Edit: yesterday evening

Shortsville Times:

Elon Musk stops-off in The Netherlands to visit the coffee shop

 

[Tslynk67]

If his trades were real, he got washed out by the 420 tweet mess. This might explain his not here anymore.

He's not wiped out - he survived the 420 scare - he had converted his common stock into long-term calls, but last I read on Twitter he had a bit of a mix again. It's hard to keep up TBH.

 

[KarenRei]

Shortsville Times:

Elon Musk stops-off in The Netherlands to visit the coffee shop

Nah, Shortsville is saying that he stopped there because of pot. :Þ

Still no movement of his plane. So this wasn't just some sort of brief stopover. That said, it could well be a personal trip rather than business.

 

[Nocturnal]

Feels like China is going to be a money machine for Tesla. I'm curious to see how fast they can get up and running.

Nah, Shortsville is saying that he stopped there because of pot. :Þ

Still no movement of his plane. So this wasn't just some sort of brief stopover. That said, it could well be a personal trip rather than business.

Shame he doesn't just run rails of cocaine like other executives.

 

[HG Wells]

Nah, Shortsville is saying that he stopped there because of pot. :Þ

Still no movement of his plane. So this wasn't just some sort of brief stopover. That said, it could well be a personal trip rather than business.

NOTE: Under the drug policy of the Netherlands, the sale of cannabis products in small quantities is allowed by licensed coffeeshops. The majority of these also serve drinks and food. Coffeeshops are not allowed to serve alcohol or other drugs, and risk closure if they are found to be selling soft drugs to minors, hard drugs or selling alcohol.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Maybe Elon is on his way to Saarlouis Germany to save a Ford factory as GF4 Europe
It's close to Grohmann, to France, to Belgium... as he was looking for...
Ford Europe: Thousands of jobs to be cut in overhaul - CNN

I`ve looked into Ford`s last ER when it came out. They are making losses in almost every region except North America and they are getting rid of every model there except the pick-ups. So essentially they are a one-trick pony now and everything depends on the F150 family and America`s appetite for these. Until, you know, someone makes a better pick-up...

The only reason why Ford`s situation looks a bit better than that, is because their financial arm is making really nice profits too, but if their pick-up sales were to decrease, with less cars to lease that could fall apart as well at the very same time, with the same problem hitting them twice. Oh yeah and they have a lot of money in the bank, so they can stomach this for a while.

• Overall: 1 Bn net income on 37B revenue
• NA: 2Bn EBIT profit at +8.8% margin
• SA: 152M loss, -11.8% margin
• EU: 245M loss, -3.3% margin
  
• ME&A: 47M profit, +7.7% margin but the profit fell by 50% YoY
  
• AP: 208 loss, -6.7% margin
  
• Ford credit: 3Bn revenue +678m profit

On the European factory. Yeah, that would be a good and quick way to get a factory here, but I am always concerned about how strong the unions are in Western Europe and about any potential existing environmental damage at old factory sites that Tesla would be on the hook for/have to clean up.

 

[Pezpunk]

I`ve looked into Ford`s last ER when it came out. They are making losses in almost every region except North America and they are getting rid of every model there except the pick-ups. So essentially they are a one-trick pony now and everything depends on the F150 family and America`s appetite for these. Until, you know, someone makes a better pick-up...

reminds me of the 70s/80s when the same group of American manufacturers got their lunch eaten because they had loaded up their lineup with huge luxury barges with 400 cubic inch V8's making 135 horsepower (high margin vehicles at the time!) instead of learning how to build anything approaching a half-decent small, efficient, reliable vehicle.

 

[MP3Mike]

What are you trying to say?
Yes, the 85 and 90s were double stack also, but the original 40 (DOA) and 60 were not
The fact that I didn't call out the first double stack version doesn't change whether Tesla had to
'go through "reengineering, requalifying, retesting, and recertifying (in all markets)" for that?'

(Edit 75 kWh is also single stack).

Maybe I have my history wrong, but I thought the 85kWh Model S was the first Model S delivered, so it would have be the first car certified. And it had double stacked modules. What you said was "100kWh packs have a double stack at the front added post launch" and I'm saying that is false, the launched Model S had double stacked modules.

At a minimum the 60kWh and 85kWh packs were launched at the same time. And yes, they likely had to be certified separately.

As I recall the cars with 100 kWh packs had to be recertified, even though double-stacking wasn't new, and Tesla even had to make changes to the seats to achieve that.

 

[KarenRei]

Broke 1% up (Nasdaq is flat). Are we going to set a new record for highest intraday trading since 19 december ? (was $344,01)

 

[Fact Checking]

Nasdaq is flat

Not sure what you are looking at, but NASDAQ is very much not flat:

^IXIC Interactive Stock Chart | NASDAQ Composite Stock - Yahoo Finance​

+1.5% up since the morning lows, there's a nice rally underway with most tech stocks involved.

Edit: I see, flat since yesterday's close - but that ignores the overnight dip of -1.5%, the sharp drop on open and the recovery underway now.

 

[Buckminster]

Yep. It was as if Elon was specifically targetting trendtrader007 to wipe out his calls. Perfectly timed and just long enought for tt007 to believe and sell the calls.

007 (the original) is an occasional poster on Super Bulls thread - alive and well.

Tesla is not about building moats, if the 18650 supply allowed others to build EVs that's a good thing.

FC is a criminal mastermind. Have you not seen his Brexit posts. I'm thinking of emigrating such is the dystopian UK that he has painted... Elon should hire him to scare the shorts into submission.

 

[KarenRei]

Musk is in the air. Headed in the direction of London (although could well just be passing over it).

 

[KarenRei]

Not sure what you are looking at, but NASDAQ is very much not flat:

^IXIC Interactive Stock Chart | NASDAQ Composite Stock - Yahoo Finance​

+1.5% up since the morning lows, there's a nice rally underway with most tech stocks involved.

Edit: I see, flat since yesterday's close - but that ignores the overnight dip of -1.5%, the sharp drop on open and the recovery underway now.

Change: -0,07% relative to yesterday's close. When I wrote that, it was about the same, but TSLA was around 1% up relative to yesterday's close (has dropped since then, only 0,17% now)

 

[Buckminster]

The results are in:
Why are Tesla dropping the 75 S/X?

1. 
   To replace with a rebranded Standard Range (minor refresh) approx April
   6 vote(s)
   9.1%
2. *
   To replace with a rebranded Standard Range (interior refresh) approx April
   3 vote(s)
   4.5%
3. 
   To replace with a rebranded Standard Range (interior refresh + 2170) approx April
   8 vote(s)
   12.1%
4. 
   Unaltered 100 will be the only option in 2019 (~$10K price drop)
   14 vote(s)
   21.2%
5. 
   Refreshed 100 will be the only option in 2019
   5 vote(s)
   7.6%
6. 
   120 will be introduced alongside an 85-100 in 2019
   30 vote(s)
   45.5%
   
   Vote here:
   
   Elon has caught us out big time. 2170 sooner rather than later is compelling for sure, but Elon has never previously delivered ahead of schedule..