Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

$700!

Pre-market looks strong across the board right now, including TSLA which just hit $702!

 

[StealthP3D]

With the greatest of respect, I think the repeated comments like these say something about the mindset of a particular culture that reveals a blind spot in the adherents. It is most obvious in the USA, but not only there.

It is the unnecessarily large US-style vehicles that are more of a problem in energy terms than small vehicles. As a generality tools should be large enough to do the job, no larger. It doesn't take a huge pick-up to do the groceries. Most US pick-up owners have no farm, and definitely no hogs. This is not just a criticism of the US, I can say the same thing about the proliferation of man-vans in Europe etc, where most of the owners have never done a days work on tools in their lives. The same critique can be made of many motorhomes.

My obvious point is that these tiny cars, many selling for less than $5,000, cars that cannot even go 60 mph (many don't even have heaters) make up nearly half of the EV statistics and yet would not even be licensable in the US or Europe. It's a completely different market/product. When comparing market share it hardly makes sense to compare vehicles with an average selling price of $5K or less with vehicles that average nearly 50K. That means it takes 10 mini-cars to make up one EV that can sell in Europe or the US.

This has nothing to do with cultural bias and everything to do with using business market share statistics in a meaningful way. I'm disappointed that you went in the weeds with a charge of cultural bias. The tiny cars deserve a category of their own!

No heated defrosters, no airbags, no crash standards...

 

[thx1139]

With thanks to Jose Pontes of EV Volumes via Cleantechnica, here are movements since this time last year

First models & brands
View attachment 690728

Then groups
View attachment 690729

So I have people tell me that the Y is cannibalizing 3 sales. Does anyone have a good analysis that debunks it. I haven't gone to the time to do it myself yet.

 

[jeewee3000]

I believe last time above $700 was May 3rd 2021. Good to be back. Hope it takes it on good volume on market open.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Sandy Munro in his look at the Lightning, commented favorably on the size of the casting Ford was using. Perhaps he was referring to a different type of casting since I thought it was traditional body on frame design.

My guess would be the drivetrain cradle, which gets attached to the frame.
The Mach-e already uses a casting for the front cradle (look at the Munro teardown)

I think the whole casting topic has just reached a technological inflection point where it's viable for much bigger parts independent of Tesla. It's just that they took the boldest step forward with this new capability...

 

[DaveG_NJ]

Pre-market looks strong across the board right now, including TSLA which just hit $702!

Let's see what happens when the market makers get to work. Maybe some are on vacation and we can blow past 700 and keep going.

 

[StealthP3D]

Sandy Munro in his look at the Lightning, commented favorably on the size of the casting Ford was using. Perhaps he was referring to a different type of casting since I thought it was traditional body on frame design.

I haven't watched that one but I bet he's talking about a casting being used at the top of the front strut towers. Whatever it is you can be sure it's not large enough to require Tesla's proprietary materials and techniques. If it's structural it probably requires heat treatment to harden it after it's cast which is an extra, energy intensive, step (and extra expense).

 

[jerry33]

So I have people tell me that the Y is cannibalizing 3 sales. Does anyone have a good analysis that debunks it. I haven't gone to the time to do it myself yet.

If there were no Model Y, then all the sales would be Model 3 + ICE. The existence of the Model Y means that some portion of Model 3 sales would go to Model Y. However, there doesn't seem to be any shortage of either Model 3 or Model Y buyers. I suggest that the vast majority of Model 3 and Model Y sales cannibalize ICE sales rather than each other's. When the Model 2 comes out, we'll have this same silly discussion with Model 2 vs. Models 3/Y.

 

[jerry33]

I spent a weekend in Singapore once. Caught cabs a dozen times. The longest wait was about 45 seconds. Typically the process of locating a cab involved nothing more than looking in the direction of oncoming traffic and raising a hand. It‘s a different world when the majority of vehicles on the road are for hire. Way more convenient than fetching a private car from a parking station.

That certainly works in Singapore and should work in other crowded urban areas. My experience in non-crowded areas has been different. You only take a taxi or Uber if there is no other alternative.

 

[Thekiwi]

So I have people tell me that the Y is cannibalizing 3 sales. Does anyone have a good analysis that debunks it. I haven't gone to the time to do it myself yet.

Of course it does (SUVs are overwhelmingly preferred to sedans by majority of consumers), but cannibalizing sales with a vehicle that sells at a higher price, and with a higher profit margin is a situation any company would die for.

 

[StealthP3D]

So I have people tell me that the Y is cannibalizing 3 sales. Does anyone have a good analysis that debunks it. I haven't gone to the time to do it myself yet.

You don't need to debunk it, just tell them the Y has higher margins and Tesla can adjust production lines to make whatever the customers are demanding. More Y sales = more profits.

 

[lascavarian]

My guess would be the drivetrain cradle, which gets attached to the frame.
The Mach-e already uses a casting for the front cradle (look at the Munro teardown)

I think the whole casting topic has just reached a technological inflection point where it's viable for much bigger parts independent of Tesla. It's just that they took the boldest step forward with this new capability...

Good comment. The cradle makes sense. The image of the Lightning frame looks traditional.

 

[jbcarioca]

Tesla counts a 'delivery' when all purchase paperwork is correct and complete.

VW counts a 'delivery' when the car is dropped off at the Dealer's sales lot.

VW has an average of 82 days of inventory on hand. In effect, they are counting their chicks about 1 Quarter before they 'hatch'.

Cheers!

The case is a trifle more complex, although your conclusion is correct.
“Where new and used vehicles and original parts are sold, the Company’s performance invariably occurs upon delivery, because that is the point when control is transferred, and the inventory risk and, for deliveries to a dealer, invariably also the pricing decision pass to the customer.” VW 2019 annual report, other OEMs similar. The question is how ‘delivery’ is accomplished. For some delivery is deemed when vehicles are shipped to dealer, for others when vehicle physically arrives at dealer location. To be a bit clearer Tesla recognizes income after "... automotive sales revenue is recognized when control transfers upon delivery to customer..." an exception is for lease accounting. Tesla 2019 10K

Paperwork is essential but not sufficient for Tesla. Other OEM practices allow for considerable flexibility in definition of 'delivery'. Testa is the only OEM which does not permit 'gaming' deliveries. VW famously 'delivered' ID3's to itself(i.e. VW owned entities). There are copious instances of legacy OEM trickery to show better than real sales. Decades ago GM delivered thousands of unsalable Buick Reattas to Alamo car rental with buyback by GM after six months. That generated almost instant used cars while making it seem that people were buying those cars.

I am showing a couple of instances to show that even the VW '82 days' is almost positively understating the truth.
Another common tactic is to avoid 'completing' a vehicle in order to keep it in WIP rather than counting in 'days on hand'. At the moment semiconductor shortages obscure that practice.

rWe know where Tesla's batteries are coming from... for the record I think Tesla's lithium clay extraction works,,, and that is the tip of the iceberg in relation to a rethink on mining and materials processing..

Lots of companies are scaling up plans for battery production.. this is the only "land grab" that is happening,.

Typically 5 years estimated for a new mine, 5 years estimate for a new battery factory, I bet both can be done faster by highly motivated companies... More so if they take note of what competitors like Tesla are doing and develop similar processes.

Actually we do not "...know where Tesla's batteries are coming from...". We know what we have been told thus far. There are several viable technologies that could enter mass production within the next couple of years, well within planning horizon for new production facilities. For instance:

China's CATL unveils sodium-ion battery - a first for a major car battery maker

China's CATL (300750.SZ) on Thursday became the first major automotive battery maker to unveil a sodium-ion battery, saying it planned to set up a supply chain for the new technology in 2023.

www.reuters.com

We do know Tesla is working assiduously to advance battery technology. We do know CATL is building an estimated 80GWh plant adjacent to the Tesla Shanghai plant. Based on both Battery Day and other developments it seems certain Tesla will quickly adopt any new technology that accelerates the mission. That includes disclosed ones, other in development by Tesla and/or suppliers as well as presently unknown developments.

My reason for belaboring that point is that the massive investment in energy storage R&D is certain to produce surprises, for stationary energy storage and BEV energy storage. We are in a stage of potential discontinuity. CATL is a leader, Tesla and CATL have close and deepening relationships. There are others for which Tesla is a participant and close observer.

Thus we really do not know exactly what the solutions will be, but we do know they'll be the best they can be.
Just compare the 2012 Model S85P to the 2021 Model S Plaid. Both use 18650 from favor but the contents of that form are entirely different.
Then, consider whether any given new technology just might be adaptable to whatever form factor Tesla might choose.
Nothing coming suggested that the advantages of the tablets 4680 form factor will disappear, but the contents might be different than have been discussed to date. I am also not suggesting that the Maxwell technology, as perfected, will not be the default for some years. We simply cannot know what may suddenly appear.

 

[strago13]

Volume looks pretty good this morning

 

[phantasms]

Any potential technical tops to what could be an excellent day?

 

[Unpilot]

Not a bad take...a little slanted. But the problem of FSD is complex for sure.

Elon Musk Says He's Close to Solving 'One of the Hardest Technical Problems That's Ever Existed.' Is He Really?

The eccentric billionaire has been making technology history for decades. But this next milestone of human invention may prove to be his biggest achievement yet.

www.inc.com

 

[dmvevguy]

Wow...RSI may be pulling to overbought terretory on daily chart, but man this is nice . I hope it keeps above 700 today!

 

[Krugerrand]

That is about my take as well. In 2030 you might barely notice EV sales impacting total vehicle sales, by 2035 at the margins but by 2040 I could see total automobile sales sliding and fast. By 2050 I think it is a given that sales are plummeting.

You better hope it happens faster than that.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So I have people tell me that the Y is cannibalizing 3 sales. Does anyone have a good analysis that debunks it. I haven't gone to the time to do it myself yet.

When your higher ASP, higher margin model sells in increased volume and with higher total sales across the board, we do not refer to that as 'cannibalizing'. It's called 'upselling'.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Any potential technical tops to what could be an excellent day?

We look to Open above the Upper-BB, but that itself is ascendant right now. I'll update this post with the 50-Day Stock Chart in 15-min after the Open.

EDIT: Upper-BB at the Open on Mon, Aug 02, 2021 was 690.60