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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I also returned from a vacation to Lake Garda in Northern Italy a few days ago driving my 2019 Model 3 LR AWD. My take aways:

- On just one drive along the lakeside through the touristiy places, a kid called his dad pointing at my car, "look, it´s a Tesla" and in the next village, a whole group of kids standing at the side of the road broke out in cheers while I was driving by. Similar experiences on other days :).

- Driving the car in the mountains is so cool. All one pedal driving, even on 20% downhill slopes. Especially on steep narrow uphills (road not wide enough for two cars driving in opposite directions) when you have to stop, go back to let someone pass - a breeze when all you need is the accelerator and gear switch. You never feel like you waste energy going downhill either.

- Charging is absolutely a non-issue with the pace of Supercharger buildout. V3 makes things much better because you don´t have to share power when stations get crowded. No charging planning needed, just drive as fast as you want and charge when you have to. Charged on a regular outlet at an appartment I rented over night, too, gave the host a tip.

- At the Supercharger on top of Brenner mountain pass (one of the main north-south road connections across the alps) I charged with about 10 other Teslas, while opposite there was another EV charger with only one BMW i3 - the sight of the couple charging there standing in front of their car looking at all the Teslas was quite funny.

- Also on the way, I was surprised the screen never showed an amount to pay at SCs. First I thought it was a bug, later I realized someone I gave my referral to finally got his Tesla (didn´t get any notification), so the trip was pretty much free, too :)

- Freeway driving is so much less tiring with AP. I used to arrive all tired when driving ICEs and need a day extra just to recover from 1000km driving, not any more!

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Very similar experience recently on and by my mountain. We went and had dinner with a direct ‘neighbor’ (use the term very lightly - basically their property abuts mine and that’s about it) in the closest little town (has one traffic light) and as we drove through town (takes 10 seconds) a youngster (maybe 7) was crossing the street with his parents. He was pointing and jabbering on, literally stopped in the middle of the street while his parents looked on in confusion. He clearly knew what he was looking at.

We had some other people give themselves whiplash and had several thumbs up from pickup truck drivers. I believe much of it has to do with the fact that everywhere around fires are raging and/or there’s a high threat of fires. These people may live in the wilderness but they aren’t unaware of what’s happening to the world. If anything they are inherently in tune with it.

Charging options continue to grow. This little town has a public EV charger at the ‘city hall’ (use that term lightly as well) that is free. The hotel we stay at in another town has free EV charging and we just discovered 4 new chargers (also free to use) in that town in the parking lot of a county building.
 
Does someone know something? The big buying doesn't seem to be affecting any other auto or EV manufacturers... if I were to take a guess, I'd guess it has something to do with someone knowing something about the EV tax credit.
It may be a combination of UBS raising its TSLA price target, and institutional short seller Carson Block admitting he was wrong about TSLA.
 
I find it weird that on one hand Elon is pushing hard for his factories to finish, on the other hand he talking about rate limiting steps...so is there a shortage or not? "Finish up my factories so I will let them sit idle because of suppliers!" Reminds me of 2018 where he tweets about the samething 1H while production exploded 2H. Sandbagging? I usually never assume sandbagging but this is odd.

The construction of a factory also involves the building of a supply chain for the planned production increase of that factory. Building the new supply chain probably begins around the same time construction begins. The result is commitments to purchase and commitments to supply, at the expected completion dates of the factory.

The bottom line is manufacturers need to have accurate ideas of what their future production will be in order to have a strong supply chain. Tesla has a leg up on other manufacturers here because their products are not demand constrained so they know with more certainty that their needs are equal to their max production capacity (minus a fudge factor to account for the fact that actual production will always be less than production capacity). Manufacturers who under-estimated their production ran out of chips first.
 
The reliance on suppliers is a vulnerability, if not THE vulnerability Tesla has, like all auto manufacturers. The ability to raise capital is no longer what can hinder Tesla’s growth. Hence, the attack point for opponents has shifted. This is why I found Elon’s Q2 comments so puzzling - he was literally putting up a billboard that Tesla’s growth can be possibly limited by influencing the supply chain (“and there’s not much we can do about it...”). If you’re anyone with deep pockets, and a desire to slow Tesla down, why would you not pour your billions into screwing with the supply chain? I don’t see why the same folks that poured money into shorting TSLA to limit its ability to raise money would not alter their strategy to this...pretty much a no-brainer if you believe such opponents exist.

Tesla will need to reduce reliance on certain suppliers (especially those that are beholden to other interests). This cannot happen overnight but it must eventually be done if the growth targets that the mission requires are to be achieved. I would not underestimate Tesla engineering in this regard but at the same time remember that there is only so much talent and only so much time.

The pandemic provided cover for a lot of shady behavior IMHO.
...or at least reduce dependency on suppliers with no volume competitors. Good point @woodisgood
 


"An increase of 1 microgram per cubic centimeter of PM2.5 particulate matter corresponded to a 16% greater risk of all-cause dementia, and a similarly-increased risk for Alzheimer's-type dementia, according to the study.

This particulate matter comes primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, according to the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC). A study last year also linked higher levels of PM2.5 to higher coronavirus death rates."


Perhaps this is why politicians are so slow to take action on climate change.

The article further says: "Earlier this year, Volvo claimed to have the first vehicle that assesses PM2.5 air quality inside the cabin"; with no mention of Bioweapon defence mode or Tesla anywhere. This just adds to the mountain of reasons why I think TSLA has room to go - the sheer volume of people that don't know about the innovation that this company is bringing and making the lives of so many, so much better.

HODL. Not advice.
Will my Model X filter clean those tiny particles up? Are there common home heat pump filters that fine?

Regarding another OT discussion, I'm chafing at the 800 pound gorilla in the room regarding agriculture and CO2- if the common annual versions of ag crops were replaced with perennial versions of major crops - the CO2 sequestered in the perpetual root systems and benefits to agriculture (perennial plants, sort of like a lawn, live FOREVER, while annual crop plants, by definition DIE EVERY FALL and have to be re-seeded every spring!) -would be immense; but the annual crop seed companies are politically as powerful and entrenched as Big oil and traditional ICE manufacturers. Breeding perennial versions of crops would almost have to start from scratch, and established seed providers would be highly motivated to monkey wrench the effort at every turn.
-Edited
Teslarati - 18 minutes ago: Tesla critic abandons bet against TSLA, with no plans to revive it

Excerpt:

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has a lot of critics, and some of them tend to be aggressive at times. One of these is Carson Block, which The New York Times describes as a “volatile and sometimes venomous short-seller” who runs Muddy Waters Capital. Block had taken a position against Tesla in the past, but in a shareholder letter, the short-seller admitted that his bets against the Elon Musk-led EV company had been abandoned.

Block’s letter to shareholders is pretty rare on its own, being the first of its kind since he started a hedge fund in 2015. Block’s letter reportedly stated that Elon Musk’s “narcissism” was a cause for his disdain, and it encouraged his beliefs that Tesla’s business would crater. He admitted, however, that he underestimated the Tesla CEO’s ability to raise capital and captivate shareholders.
@Curt Renz , Does this mean we'll worry less about a TSLA split, as there will be fewer shorts to burn?? Or in any case, a split won't drive SP up like the last split did.

MODERATOR RESPONSE: PLEASE do not derail this thread even more by posing - let alone responding, any of you - to such questions and comments, as interesting and relevant to our planet’s near-term future as they are. Also, to the OP and others similarly confused: please learn about the supremely important distinction between fossil carbon and active-cycle carbon. But NOT in this thread.
 
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While I find Block's thinking to be muddled in the extreme, he touches on one of the pillars of my thesis on Tesla. For several years, money has been free, to the point that almost all companies don't know what to do with all of the cash.

And yet, the Credit Ratings agencies have conspired to slow-walk Tesla's credit rating upgrade to "Investment Grade", thus ensuring that NONE of the FED's money goes to buying Tesla Corporate Bonds during the prolonged Covid downturn.

And we just heard this morning that the FED will likely start "tapering" by December:

Expect Fed to start tapering in December: Atlas Merchant Capital CEO | CNBC on Youtube

So not only is Block clearly a poor judge of character, he also likes to lie to himself about Tesla's "easy assess to cash" (all the way publicly calling Elon and Tesla liers).

Incoming Zenn: "It's not the stillness in stillness that is true stillness, its only when lying that spiritual stillness can arise."

Yeah, Carson Block should just quit. Oh, wait... :p

Cheers!
 
Dat 720 wall is hard to break. Oh well it'll be broken next week during the run up to AI day.

And then sell-off after AI Day?

Actually I think Elon will inadvertently reverse-psychology the market (I believe he’s being truthful when he says recruiting is sole purpose). The market will find things to get excited about because Elon specifically said, “There’s nothing for you here.”

😂