Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[goinfraftw]

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

Q: Are there any projects that are funded in this infrastructure package that wouldn’t have been funded in the normal federal funding mechanisms?

A: The scale of it is what makes it stand out. It’s hard to point to any particular project since they are still on the drawing board. But the [funding] numbers were going to be much lower if we just stuck with annual appropriations. For instance, in the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office—setting aside the demonstration projects—just R&D is going to more than double.

Q: Did anything not make it in the bill that you were hoping for?

A: Not a specific provision, but I would say advanced [renewable energy technologies] don’t get as much attention as they deserve. While the Democrats are enthusiastic about renewables, they are focused on deployment, and the Republicans are more supportive of nuclear, CCS [carbon capture and storage], and the like.

 

[Singuy]

If that were true, Elon's businesses would have the same productivity has every other business, which I think you'd agree is not the case.

(In other words, people can always do more than they think they can do. Elon is able to get his companies to realize that, but that is by no means the norm).

Every company with supply issues are limited by something else. Like Elon said, the rate limited step could just be 1 out of 10k parts. Tesla is not the only company that involves multiple parts. There was a scare a few months back that water was going to limit TSMC from producing chips due to Taiwan historic drought.

 

[Todd Burch]

Every company with supply issues are limited by something else. Like Elon said, the rate limited step could just be 1 out of 10k parts. Tesla is not the only company that involves multiple parts.

Agree with you here...I'm just saying it's far more likely than not that the slowest supplier all the way up the chain--the bottleneck in the whole process)--probably has something they can be doing better to relieve that bottleneck, and I think Elon's just keeping the pressure on to ensure that company does everything they possibly can to do so.

 

[Singuy]

Agree with you here...I'm just saying it's far more likely than not that the slowest supplier all the way up the chain--the bottleneck in the whole process)--probably has something they can be doing better to relieve that bottleneck, and I think Elon's just keeping the pressure on to ensure that company does everything they possibly can to do so.

Or it could mean their chips are the hardest to modify by the Tesla team, or got the most push back from the supplier about modification.

 

[Paracelsus]

Hmmm - Bosch is a supply problem and Giga-Berlin construction was slowed by bureaucratic processes....... Any thoughts on that? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

Perhaps Elon’s decision to sell Chinese-made Teslas in Germany will finally help speed up the process of Germans buying German-made Teslas - that was a good 3-D chess mine IMO

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I don't think you can shame anyone into producing more. No one likes to leave money on the table from a lack of supply. It's not like the supplier are all out playing golf not solving their supply issue.

I'm sure those companies don't leave money on the table and are producing all they can. But they can definitely make decisions about which car manufacturers to prioritize. I can imagine Bosch is still very much favoring the old German industry: VW, Audi, Porsche, BMW and Mercedes, and to a lesser degree other VAG-brands like Skoda and Seat. And a Japanese company like Renesas will be in bed with Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Mazda and Subaru. Tesla is likely still considered a risk, even though their growth prospects are so much better than those of the legacy dinosaurs.

 

[goinfraftw]

Charging (US)

"AlixPartners estimates $300 billion will be needed to build out a global charging network to accommodate the expected growth of EVs by 2030, including $50 billion in the U.S. alone."

Biden wants to build a national EV charging system under $2 trillion infrastructure plan, but it won't be easy

An estimated $300 billion is needed to build out a global charging network to meet the expected growth of EVs by 2030, including $50 billion in the U.S. alone

www.cnbc.com

Solar Panels (US)

Fact checking Elon Musk’s Blue Square: How much solar to power the US? | UCL UCL Energy Institute Blog

UCL Homepage

blogs.ucl.ac.uk

500 GW. Which is more than current US electricity consumption of 425 GW. That means 500GW * $1M / MW = $500B

Solar Panels (world)

How Many Solar Panels Needed to Power the World? - ecotality.com

How Many Solar Panels Would Be Needed to Power the World? A total of 51.42 billion solar panels would be needed to power the entire world on solar energy. Here we are supposing a panel size of 350W for the calculated size of 18TW of solar plants. How do we arrive at this number? We … How Many...

ecotality.com

Assuming the 1 million/MW cost, the global 63TW plant would require $63 quadrillion (63*1015) US dollars to be built.

Two thoughts:

1. Society doesn't power the entire world currently.
2. Megapack is about $1M per MW

 

[Singuy]

Hmmm - Bosch is a supply problem and Giga-Berlin construction was slowed by bureaucratic processes....... Any thoughts on that? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

Perhaps Elon’s decision to sell Chinese-made Teslas in Germany will finally help speed up the process of Germans buying German-made Teslas - that was a good 3-D chess mine IMO

I find it weird that on one hand Elon is pushing hard for his factories to finish, on the other hand he talking about rate limiting steps...so is there a shortage or not? "Finish up my factories so I will let them sit idle because of suppliers!" Reminds me of 2018 where he tweets about the samething 1H while production exploded 2H. Sandbagging? I usually never assume sandbagging but this is odd.

 

[S3XY]

Options MMs are not trying for max-pain, they're moving the SP to the level that kills the most calls without moving the puts at that same SP into the money. Today that level is (surprise) around $705 (notice the huge Open Interest at that strike vs the surrounding price levels).

Here's this mornings Open Interest from the 7 a.m. ET update: (based on yesterday's data)

View attachment 695563

I call it my experimental "C-P Breakpoint" analysis (see yellow row in the table above). It gives a deeper look into what moves the market (max-pain is a very "blunt" tool).

Next, be aware that (at last count) there are ~29 separate MMs in TSLA, and each will have different levels on capital, conviction, and participation on this equity. For instance, when large hedge fund Citadel LLC joined the group of MMs on Feb 1st, 2020 we got the "Black Tuesday" event for TSLA where the SP plummeted > $100 (pre-split) in the final 15 of trading. That's a "bare raid" (as in bare-naked aggression). "Max-pain" both hides and waters down any such intent.

Advice? Study the market. Form a theory and test it by making predictions That's the scientific approach. The key advantage is CNBS can't BS science and data. That's how Elon rolls.

Good luck!

Reverse engineering the MM algo's. Nice!

 

[petit_bateau]

For those interested in things longer term, you may find the 10-year analysis I just added to The Accountant's excellent 5-year analysis of interest

Tesla Valuation Based on 5 Year Outlook

Thanks for the insights. What are your thoughts on Energy Generation and Storage as the second disruptive business? . . . basically turning the Utility industry upside down. My 5 year plan does not have Tesla disrupting the Utility industry (my growth here is modest). This is due to my...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[MartinAustin]

I'm sure those companies don't leave money on the table and are producing all they can. But they can definitely make decisions about which car manufacturers to prioritize. I can imagine Bosch is still very much favoring the old German industry: VW, Audi, Porsche, BMW and Mercedes, and to a lesser degree other VAG-brands like Skoda and Seat. And a Japanese company like Renesas will be in bed with Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Mazda and Subaru. Tesla is likely still considered a risk, even though their growth prospects are so much better than those of the legacy dinosaurs.

Totally. Elon's use of the word "standard" indicates he is referring to some identical parts used by different auto companies. They can (try to) slow Tesla down at times like this by controlling the suppliers.

 

[heltok]

[OT] Sorta. From @Buckminster in Elon's Thread's pics of Elon and his family visiting Florence

Here's to wishing all billionnaires would have similar good tastes, family values, not to mention well meaning altruistic ambitions.
Or -would work just as well- if all average folks would spend their money better - no need for polluting Coke and bottled "vitamin" waters, senselessly packaged foods and goods..

'Visit Florence!': Elon Musk has private tour of the Uffizi Gallery with girlfriend Grimes, 33, and his teenage children as he celebrates his 50th birthday​

• The Tesla founder was in Florence on Sunday with his family and in Berlin for meetings on Wednesday
• Musk, who turned 50 in June, was joined by his Canadian girlfriend Grimes, 33, for their European jaunt
• Their one-year-old son, X Æ A-12, was not seen but three of his five teenage sons were pictured with their father and his singer girlfriend at the Uffizi
• The group was shown around the famed museum by the mayor of Florence and the museum's director
• The mayor posted a clip to Twitter of the South African billionaire saying in Italian: 'Visit Florence!'
• Musk and his family later on Sunday enjoyed dinner at a 130-year-old Florentine restaurant in a cavern beneath the city
• On Wednesday Musk was in Germany for a series of meetings as he works to open a $6.9 billion Tesla factory near Berlin

View attachment 695551

And fun moment recorded on Mayor of Florence's Twitter

Wonder if this is related:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1425780165955698695

 

[MP3Mike]

I find it weird that on one hand Elon is pushing hard for his factories to finish, on the other hand he talking about rate limiting steps...so is there a shortage or not? "Finish up my factories so I will let them sit idle because of suppliers!" Reminds me of 2018 where he tweets about the samething 1H while production exploded 2H. Sandbagging? I usually never assume sandbagging but this is odd.

It doesn't seem weird to me at all. Say they have ordered ~900k/year worth of parts for delivery this year and the supplier says that's great, but I can only supply you with ~800k/year. But Tesla has already placed orders for ~2M/year worth of parts for next year, so maybe they will get an allocation of ~1.75M/year.

It could also be that the suppliers are temporarily limited on production capacity and that the problems will be resolved next year and they will be able to produce at full volume. (Or a combination of both.)

 

[S3XY]

The Cybertruck might not be groundbreaking in the auto manufacturing field just for its bent stainless steel exoskeleton, but also for its bent glass!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1425796421119324165

This means no seam to create wind noise where the "windshield" meets the "roof".

 

[mongo]

Assuming the 1 million/MW cost, the global 63TW plant would require $63 quadrillion (63*1015) US dollars to be built.

Isn't that $63 Trillion? $1 per watt. (And early build generates money for later build out, so total outlay is less)

 

[Rarity]

I find it weird that on one hand Elon is pushing hard for his factories to finish, on the other hand he talking about rate limiting steps...so is there a shortage or not? "Finish up my factories so I will let them sit idle because of suppliers!" Reminds me of 2018 where he tweets about the samething 1H while production exploded 2H. Sandbagging? I usually never assume sandbagging but this is odd.

Musk has learned that abbreviating build time decreases overall construction cost. You would want to do this even if you would then have the capacity sitting around idle.

Of course, this just moves the constraints elsewhere. And then you can work on those constraints. Never stop building and growing. The need is urgent.

 

[saniflash]

observing patterns these last few days and just a few moments ago... as soon as volume comes in price changes fast. good sign for post-vacation times.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Tesla is engineering the functionality of the Renesas & Bosch chips into an existing chip or a new one. By calling them out by name, I think he is hinting that is what they are doing and if Renesas & Bosch want their business, they better figure out a way to deliver Tesla more chips ASAP or they will lose them as a customer permanently.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The tech stocks that I monitor (eg GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT) are all turning positive with similar trajectories as Tesla is seeing right now.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

And a big push of 80k through $700 to trigger all the stop-losses people may have placed.
Already above again.

There they go again, trying to shake out the weak hands. Ooops, didn’t work with me, a bunch of buys triggered in my sleep. Of course, I missed the bottom MMD unfortunately, but still picked up 25 shares at $705. Edit: My lower buys didn’t trigger. Never really expected it to break below 700, but did expect some shenanigans nearby.