Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CLK350]

The fact that Tesla DID come out with a chip slightly surpassing the main players, AMD and Nvidia in a few years, PLUS the software stack for easy programming is mind blowing.
PS. Added correction from Singuy a few pages later " I would like to correct that the TBps from Tesla's presentation is actually Terabyte and not terabits, which make the bandwidth from on chip 5x faster, and off chip 7x faster than Nvidia. "

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For a specific example: to get, say, a TeslaBot grape picker all you need to do is have actual grape pickers do their job with cameras and glove assist, and set up specialists at central base for the initial NN labeling.
High end organic grape growers use flocks of sheep to take care of weeds, instead of herbicides. TeslaBot could do that as well, same as tending the grapes as they grow (watching for leaf damage and growth, testing and measuring soil humidity, turning on /off watering).

If TeslaBot were the first big far out announcement, it wouldn't be as credible as it is. To put this in perspective: we've had the Model S, the Model 3 ramp, Giga Nevada, Giga Shanghai, AI day and Battery day - these have all become realities (well 4680 and Lithium mining are still at 90% and 10% only, Giga Casting is in production ). Not to mention the other EMSK (Elon Musk) initiatives, The Boring Co and LVCC, SpaceX and the multiple rocket programs, Starlink, Neuralink..

The dancing TeslaBot interlude will/ has already drawn some flack, but I think it was a very carefully planned demo, showing how dead serious Elon is at developing that new face of Tesla, the AI/ robotics one. The recruiting may not be immediate, or known immediately, but recall how as recounted in Liftoff the recent book by Eric Berger on the early days of SpaceX, Elon was intent on hiring the very best of the best.
I am sure that Elon/ Tesla has identified the top layer of the AI robotics talent, and they have received an invitation. Whether they attended or not, they certainly got the message, and the real issue is how many of these will Tesla eventually get on board. Regardless, they have enough as it is to already sell their tech, it is just that they figured, why leave 80% of the potential profits off the table?

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From the investor point of view this is also huge, because so far and for the near future, Tesla's car production and so profits are battery constrained - since TeslaBot will cleary use much less batteries per unit (think car vs bot as 4,000 lb vs 150 lb so with a 1:27 ratio, 27 bots @ 20K ea, say that's 540K vs a 55K car) , so this is hugely positive.
On a side note, this is also the first time AFAIK Elon has clearly indicated they would be open to licensing the FSD tech to other carmakers. My bet would be, with better pricing for pure EV's. So here, another revenue stream opening up.

What could go wrong? Unions clamoring for a TeslaBot union hahah ha .. Lawsuits against damage or injuries caused by TeslaBots ..Apple /Google and Chinese competition .. detrimental legislation .. I don't see anything credible stopping Tesla's domination for the next 7 years at least.

Updating: I didn't mention the huge advance in the software stack, which goes hand in hand with the incredible hardware designs. We are getting much closer to human intelligence than before

And Elon's tweet this morning

The next areas that need developing after vision are touch, audio, smell and taste sensors .. which is probably a motivation for recruiting event.

For the record: Fri 8/20 the next day at open, SP goes to 692, smacked down as usual now to 680 10:20 am. If some SP breakthrough happens it's likely to be Monday morning, first because this is Friday, when the MM's manipulate for max profit on their options, and second because the investors will need to digest the information, assuming they aren't overwhelmed by the incoming expected FUD/ dissing. I'm all out of couch coins and credit lines, but enjoying the show regardless. Money isn't everything. I am super happy/ excited witnessing these developments in real time albeit as a spectator only.

 

[StealthP3D]

Not sure I agree with this -- Elon made sure to emphasize that, even with HW3 + FSD computer, he is confident that Tesla cars will be able to run FSD, at up to 300% better than a human (He said HW4 with the upgraded cameras would be like 10x better than a human). I believe he is making sure that people understand that FSD is deliverable with HW3, just at a safety rate lower than HW4. This implies to me that cars with HW3 will have to pay if they want HW4 installed.

Think this through:

1) If FSD hasn't been solved by the time HW4 has been released then it's likely that it will be solved on HW4 first.
2) Legally, if Tesla could upgrade customers to HW4 more quickly than solving FSD for HW3, then Tesla would be obligated to upgrade FSD purchasers with HW3 to HW4

 

[Yoona]

not sure if related to AI, but all electrics and ICE

 

[JupiterMan]

1) If FSD hasn't been solved by the time HW4 has been released then it's likely that it will be solved on HW4 first.

I don't think that is the case, and that isn't what was said.

HW4 will always do better, but HW3 can do enough was the message,

HW4 will simply advance the march of the 9's

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

As expected, most Headlines in my feed today are about the robot, and not about the incredible computing power and talent that is driving FSD. In the end, everyone is going to license FSD from Tesla, because nobody will be able to match it (at best they will be ten iterations behind). TSLA is the next TSLA.

Can we blame the media for focussing on the robot? Most members here are doing the exact same thing, judging by the number of robot related posts since last night.

I guess that makes us human, not mechanical.

 

[UncaNed]

Not sure I agree with this -- Elon made sure to emphasize that, even with HW3 + FSD computer, he is confident that Tesla cars will be able to run FSD, at up to 300% better than a human (He said HW4 with the upgraded cameras would be like 10x better than a human). I believe he is making sure that people understand that FSD is deliverable with HW3, just at a safety rate lower than HW4. This implies to me that cars with HW3 will have to pay if they want HW4 installed.

Indeed, no free HW4 apparently. I brought my March 2018 Model X (paid for FSD just to support the mission) in for service and among the things they surprised me upgrading for free (sound system, suspension...) on warranty, they offered to upgrade me to WH3. I mentioned I'd be just as happy waiting till closer to actual FSD rollout, thinking I'd get a later version of HW3 hardware or HW4, but the service guy's reaction was like I was trying to get something for nothing (I still would have been happy to wait and pay for it without taking Tesla's HW3 for the time being. I still think there'll be quite a wait for actual FSD...

Perhaps HW4 won't even retrofit into the pre-HW3 cars?

Happily paid $2,500 to upgrade my yellow-framed touchscreen while it was there, again, mostly to support the mission.

 

[jerry33]

Indeed, no free HW4 apparently. I brought my March 2018 Model X (paid for FSD just to support the mission) in for service and among the things they surprised me upgrading for free (sound system, suspension...) on warranty, they offered to upgrade me to WH3. I mentioned I'd be just as happy waiting till closer to actual FSD rollout, thinking I'd get a later version of HW3 hardware or HW4, but the service guy's reaction was like I was trying to get something for nothing (I still would have been happy to wait and pay for it without taking Tesla's HW3 for the time being. I still think there'll be quite a wait for actual FSD...

Perhaps HW4 won't even retrofit into the pre-HW3 cars?

Happily paid $2,500 to upgrade my yellow-framed touchscreen while it was there, again, mostly to support the mission.

My understanding is that it's supposed to just plug in, but there won't be the updated cameras. so it's the equivalent of upgrading the CPU in a computer. The CPU is faster, but the i/o bus isn't, and neither are the memory chips.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Robot bodies

Robot knees are good enough for me.

 

[Paracelsus]

No wonder Elon wants Crypto more efficient. This is an entire shipping container van full of massive coal-powered archaic Bitcoin mining computers that he just held up in his hand!

I predict Wall Street, EU, and World Bank monopolies are crappin’ their jockeys over the exportation potential of this equipment. Paper money just evaporated IMO

unbelievably mind blowing!!!

Tesla is up just under 1%. Bitcoin is up 5.3%

-while MM’s want 675 and to put TSLA back on the 2-year trend line/200 day MA, Bitcoin is free to run on last nights presentation, and I sincerely believe my previous post.

The Columbia River Basin had a flood a few years back. It wasn’t water, it was Bitcoin miners wanting cheap hydroelectric power, lots of space for their container vans filled with massive computational power, and cooler temperatures since these shipping container boxes need massive amounts of cooling. As you drive through The Dalles, OR you will see these miners at work in their shipping containers literally covered with AC units and fans. Last night we saw the potential for a shipping container worth of computational power displayed by the AI team as they held it up for us to see.

Harness the power of a several of these and cool them with an octovalve and they fit in your home closet and can mine Bitcoin/crypto with your solar panels. What’s that - you don’t have room for that or you don’t want that headache? Well then, just let Tesla rent your Tesla’s microprocessor from you when your car isn’t in use and link it to thousands of other parked Tesla’s around the globe and Tesla is easily the biggest Bitcoin miner on the Planet. And it will be using less energy than a single container van parked along the Columbia River in Oregon or elsewhere. Those shipping boxes by the way consume MW’s of power each for those not familiar with the details.

I am pretty sure I made the first comment on TMC many months ago that Tesla could effectively mine Bitcoin through a connected fleet of vehicles after we started learning some early details of their new microprocessor. That initial comment drew mixed responses. Last night we learned Tesla’s computational power was light years beyond any of our wildest expectations. And that was only in the form of an individual unit. The Elephant in the Room that wasn’t introduced was the computational power of an entire Tesla fleet of vehicles and products around the globe - a Super Computer beyond comprehension, capable of many other simultaneous uses.

I love TMC because it is a place where people still dare to dream Big. I am suggesting we need to dream bigger, that those dreams are nearing reality, and that we need to embrace all things that require massive data mining - even crypto - because Tesla could own the Lion’s share of all of them. Perhaps it is a Worldwide fleet of Tesla vehicles, grid storage devices, and even robots all interconnected that are really the ‘Master of the Coin’

 

[MP3Mike]

My understanding is that it's supposed to just plug in, but there won't be the updated cameras.

Last night Elon said that HW4 includes next gen cameras.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I love TMC because it is a place where people still dare to dream Big. I am suggesting we need to dream bigger, that those dreams are nearing reality, and that we need to embrace all things that require massive data mining - even crypto - because Tesla could own the Lion’s share of all of them. Perhaps it is a Worldwide fleet of Tesla vehicles and grid storage devices interconnected that are really the ‘Master of the Coin’

Karpathy has said he has been experimenting with crypto. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Tesla used spare Dojo cycles to mine BTC and/or Doge, perhaps using a highly Dojo optimized algorithm of their own creation.

 

[SOULPEDL]

HW4 will simply advance the march of the 9's

Which could help reduce your insurance rate. 700% Human is safer than 300%.

 

[NicoV]

How long before Aunt Cathie adds a couple of trillion to her TSLA valuation based on the AI Day info?

 

[Big Time]

Time to get out my tissues

 

[jhm]

Part of solving vehicle autonomy is AI to interpret non-verbal human communication. At a minimum the ability to follow instructions from a human directing traffic is a basic requirement. But a broader understanding of gesture is helpful. Tesla Bot creates opportunities to develop non-verbal communication AI.

Too be very concrete, one application for Tesla Bot could be to direct traffic. Law enforcement, parking and road construction outfits could lease bots to do humanoid traffic directing. That's the end use, but the developmental path to it is more interesting. Bot would need to be trained to communication through gesture and voice and would need to think through the travel paths of many vehicles, pedestrians and animals at once. Last night we saw how autopilot planning does this kind of multi-agent planning and scenario generation to navigate complex situations. So specifically doing work around training a bot to think and act like a traffic cop is just part of the overall puzzle.

Or similarly when Tesla simulates a scenario where a person is trying to direct traffic with gesture, they already modeling these behaviors. Applying that simulation model to Tesla Bot is just the next logical step. Any humanoid behavior Tesla simulates in a virtual environment can be rendered by Tesla bot in a physical environment.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I still think the 3.5 trillion infrastructure bill with the EV tax credit will be the "moment" of breakout with a rapid succession of very good news - Q3 P/D numbers followed annual shareholder meeting followed by first Model Y's coming out of Texas and possibly Berlin followed by Q3 earnings. Considering the implications of Q2 earnings on Q3, I see a move all the way to 1,000 by Nov.

The insanely annoying thing is we'll have all seen it coming here......and yet Wall St will have no issue positioning themselves for take advantage of the impending huge rally. While we all made greatly in the 2019/2020 rally and shorts lost their shorts......a lot of Wall St made just as much as we did even though most probably didn't own any stock before 2019. Investing is necessary to generate and leverage your wealth......but damn investing leaves a sour taste in my mouth.

There's no doubt in my mind that there's mass coordination going on to limit any rise in the stock before mid September when the 3.5 trillion infrastructure deal. I think most of us believe it was an obvious bear raid earlier this week, which it was. But I don't think it was just bears involved. I think it was a lot of Wall St that wants to buy in and needed to stop the uptrend TSLA was in to stall until Sept.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think any substantial revenue from the Teslabot would be towards the end of the decade though, realistically.

I disagree, Robot revenue is possible next year IMO. My point stated earlier, I'm ready to buy one when it comes out, so would everyone here practically. Sight unseen, cash, done it before with the Model 3. Besides, it can sit with us and watch TV until it learns to do something, just like a baby. "Hey Tesla"... know any new tricks?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Robot revenue is possible next year IMO

I thought Elon said they hope to have a prototype some time next year. That's a long way from being something they can sell.

 

[goinfraftw]

I still think the 3.5 trillion infrastructure bill with the EV tax credit will be the "moment" of breakout with a rapid succession of very good news - Q3 P/D numbers followed annual shareholder meeting followed by first Model Y's coming out of TExas and possibly Berlin followed by Q3 earnings. Considering the implications of Q2 earnings on Q3, I see a move all the way to 1,000 by Nov.

The insanely annoying thing is we'll have all seen it coming here......and yet Wall St will have no issue positioning themselves for take advantage of the impending huge rally. While we all made greatly in the 2019/2020 rally and shorts lost their shorts......a lot of Wall St made just as much as we did even though most probably didn't own any stock before 2019. Investing is necessary to generate and leverage your wealth......but damn investing leaves a sour taste in my mouth.

There's no doubt in my mind that there's mass coordination going on to limit any rise in the stock before mid September when the 3.5 trillion infrastructure deal. I think most of us believe it was an obvious bear raid earlier this week, which it was. But I don't think it was just bears involved. I think it was a lot of Wall St that wants to buy in and needed to stop the uptrend TSLA was in to stall until Sept.

If it helps, I felt that way about investing previously. When I started applying the thinking that investing is really about propelling a team of people focused on a goal (or set of goals) who's direction you agree with...well, all sorts of positivity opened up. Philanthropy is similar that way too.

Edit: Also, a ton of patience because the time horizon for that line of thinking is different than simple money grabbing.

 

[EVMeister]

Key takeaway for the non-technically minded: BUY TSLA. For the technically minded: BUY TSLA.