Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skipdd]

I don’t think Tesla will be invited to the next White House EV event with the Bot announcement.

Then the WH needs to have a Tech day where they feature leading edge work being done in the US and invite Tesla for robotics, next generation manufacturing,…etc.

 

[Nocturnal]

As expected, most Headlines in my feed today are about the robot, and not about the incredible computing power and talent that is driving FSD. In the end, everyone is going to license FSD from Tesla, because nobody will be able to match it (at best they will be ten iterations behind). TSLA is the next TSLA.

Amazon retail/commerce allowed them to scale AWS.
Tesla auto is allowing them to scale FSD and Dojo/AI.

That is advice.

Then the WH needs to have a Tech day where they feature leading edge work being done in the US and invite Tesla for robotics, next generation manufacturing,…etc.

UAW will show up with the new Roomba they got for their headquarters.

 

[Mengy]

Has anyone checked on Warren Redlich? I’m concerned his head may have exploded when Elon suggested Tesla Bots could enable unlimited economic expansion. If he survived the night, I predict he’s working on a new TSLA forecast that will breach $1 million per share.

Warren has a livestream starting in 15 minutes. I'm gonna have to watch this, I suspect it will be supremely entertaining!

On a thread topic related note, I was looking over my Tesla economic model this morning and I have NO IDEA how to model for a Teslabot. The potential of this new market could be enormous IMHO. I think any substantial revenue from the Teslabot would be towards the end of the decade though, realistically.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Pretty good volume this morning, 2.8M shares in the first 15 minutes. Lets see how much MM's are willing to protect max pain. Any sort of MMD or flatness to close at $680 on moderate volume(higher than usual) screams naked shorting to me. My plan and not advice remains targeting 8/27 $700c's to buy cheap this week and sell early next week as naked shorting unwinds and SP is allowed to blossom.

 

[jhm]

Robots for firefighting? nuclear cleanup? Mars colonization?

A day after Teslabots start rolling off the assembly their will be a startup getting a billion dollars in funding for sexbot conversions.

That is what humans do. The internet will be the greatest tool to bring education to every human on Earth? It delivered porn to Afghanistan, Madagascar and every corner of the globe.

Dangerous, repetitive, boring.

 

[Knightshade]

Not sure I agree with this -- Elon made sure to emphasize that, even with HW3 + FSD computer, he is confident that Tesla cars will be able to run FSD, at up to 300% better than a human

He said roughly the same about HW2.5.

And HW2.0

Neither turned out to be true.

To paraphrase Elon himself, until it's actually done he has no idea how much compute is actually needed to do it.

Nobody does, since nobody has done this before.


I'm not terribly concerned about this as an investor since if they do get it working with HWx, regardless of what x is, the value of doing so is so high any legacy-fleet retrofit costs if needed would be a rounding error.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm not terribly concerned about this as an investor since if they do get it working with HWx, regardless of what x is, the value of doing so is so high any legacy-fleet retrofit costs if needed would be a rounding error.

That's the important part. Even if it were a sensor issue. The cost to add a camera to older models would be nothing compared to the value. Same with the computer as you mentioned.

 

[Todd Burch]

Like clockwork, just about every day we see this strong pushdown between 9:45 and 10:30 as MMs try to prevent the price from getting outside of their control. Reminds me of the price action before TSLA skyrocketed.

We're seeing it again. It's just a matter of time, folks.

 

[dw4ngg]

Yes a disagree from me. The TeslaBot is simply the natural progression. Let me give just one example;

GigaNevada where warm bodies are in short supply because not enough talented people want to live in the middle of nowhere.

Enter TeslaBots to work the lines and to handle logistics inside the factory (this is the natural progression of FSD). No more labor issues or housing issues at GigaNevada, free to grow to full dreamed size.

I think where people are getting stuck is imagining a humanoid robot in every home ala some sci-fi movie. Slow your roll. Oh, that’s totally happening, but you can breathe easy knowing that many of us here will be dead when that happens. It’s going to be your children and grandchildren who’ll need to worry about the robots taking over. If you’re not old like many of us - you’ve at least got some time to get used to the idea and to buy more TSLA.

Other applications:

Robot mining
Robot firefighting
Robot medical staff to help during pandemics
Robot in home care for the elderly
Robot anything you can imagine
Robot surgeons so there isn’t a 6 month wait list for elective surgeries
Robot jail guards
Robocops (yes, I went there)
Robot teachers
Robot dog walkers

I’m sad I’m not 20.

Just watch iRobot. You won’t be sad anymore

 

[H Mak]

Market underwhelmed. Plus ca change ...

 

[JRP3]

I’m sad I’m not 20.

Robot bodies

 

[Todd Burch]

Market underwhelmed. Plus ca change ...

Naw, this is good and just about what I was expecting. It's not that the market is underwhelmed, it's just that the market doesn't really understand what Tesla presented. They think FSD is about writing a bunch of 'if' statements in traditional code, whereas those in the know understand that such an approach can't scale to the real world.

The market won't really get it until FSD is closer to completion. But smart investors like us, who see WHY what Tesla presented is important, can take advantage of this to buy in before the rest of the market gets it. It's why you and I who had a lot of TSLA had better % returns the last few years than most of the big investment houses.

Meanwhile, GLJ will continue to wear his suspenders and serve as the financial world's clown, spouting nonsense. He's not smart enough to understand it yet either. It doesn't matter. By the time the rest of the market understands it, it will be too late for them to profit as much from it.

 

[jhm]

Tesla Bot generates publicity for Tesla.

 

[JRP3]

- the guy dressed in a robot suit dancing was very stupid

Nah, it was probably Grimes in the Teslabot suit dancing!

I'm fairly sure it was Grimes.

 

[jerry33]

I do support Tesla developing this but I don't think it will pay for itself for over a decade or more. Eventually, it will be a very lucrative field.

Except that they will be very cost efficient on the Moon or Mars.

 

[Rarity]

It sounds like Tesla gets the android as a free option based on its other R&D. That is good, because I have never been a fan of that business. It is a field that for many decades has been riddled with limited utility, high capital requirements, and long development timelines.

I once had an investment thesis for iRobot that was based on pessimism on the whole field. iRobot's vacuum cleaner had limited utility, but it was the best of breed and the company had been able to sell an actual product to actual customers. It was a moderately successful investment -- certainly not the worst one that I have had.

All this said, if Tesla can come out with an android servant of modest but real utility at an affordable price, I believe Tesla will never have a demand problem. It's amazing how many mostly useless robotic vacuum cleaners have been sold.

 

[Drezil]

All this said, if Tesla can come out with an android servant of modest but real utility at an affordable price, I believe Tesla will never have a demand problem. It's amazing how many mostly useless robotic vacuum cleaners have been sold.

Hey! No trash-talk about Sucky!

But otherwise i would agree

 

[woodisgood]

Warren has a livestream starting in 15 minutes. I'm gonna have to watch this, I suspect it will be supremely entertaining!

On a thread topic related note, I was looking over my Tesla economic model this morning and I have NO IDEA how to model for a Teslabot. The potential of this new market could be enormous IMHO. I think any substantial revenue from the Teslabot would be towards the end of the decade though, realistically.

It's going to be the vertical integration that again makes Tesla the dominant force in this sector, whenever it comes to fruition (I agree - 2030s will be the decade of the bots). There are companies working on the AI (Google, among others), companies working on the training hardware (NVDA), companies working on manufacturing the bots (auto manufacturers, BD, etc.). It is entirely analogous to autos. Who will be able to offer a class-leading product at a cost that undercuts everyone else?

 

[scaesare]

that must be hot.... looks like liquid cooling

EIGHTEEN. THOUSAND. AMPS.

 

[scaesare]

Tesla Bot use cases: Boring, repetitive and dangerous.

I see what he did there...