In regard of stock price projection...I live in a world where crypto and nfts exist. Your world sounds different.TL;DR - Way too high, but not because the demand isn't there. It is because Elon wants the transition to happen more quickly, which happens through Robotaxi's operating 24/7 at super competitive rates most likely starting in 2024 with <25k car fleet.
Long version summary - I love SMR and think his analysis is great, but I have a slightly different outlook.
Tesla will solve FSD in 2 years (50% confidence) or 4 years (80% confidence), Tesla has no competition for at least 5 years which could take material market share, Tesla continues to widen the innovation, profit and scale gap of BEVs against all incumbents (legacy ICE), Tesla will make enough batteries to saturate the market with BEVs and grid storage by 2030.
Will Tesla be able to demand higher prices for their products? Hell's yes!
Will Tesla slow the transition down by raising prices? Most likely
Could Tesla share/license their tech to other companies and make profit? Totally
But wouldn't that require engineering resources? Totally
So, would that speed up the transition? Probably not
Wait, so what speeds it up the most? Robotaxi's which drive all-the-time, 24/7, stopping only to supercharge, at super competitive rates, so there is no question to drive/ride sustainably.
Ok, so when do we see that? Arithmetically increasing percentage chance peaking in 2024 as the levers of demand, <25k car, battery BOM cost, battery throughput...etc, continue to effectively reach 1 disengagement every 1 billion miles.
What about the AI bot? With my background in AI and mechanical engineering, I think there is <10% chance of a product prior to 2023 to purchase increasing to 80% chance by 2028. The AI, nor the battery is the bottleneck, it is the creation of the ultra small, lightweight pieces of aluminum, carbon fiber, sensors, servos...etc that will take that much time to put into production. That tech just doesn't exist yet in production (happy to be wrong here though!). *When* it goes into production we'll see super small volumes as I would expect yields to be low and prices to be super high. I'd expect the first bot to be $100k to $200k with low margins (still super cool though) and then into mass production around 2031 with higher margins, but I don't see it making the stock price go as high as SMR predicts. I think the bot will have a ridiculous % of it's parts that move against other parts, stacked tolerances out the wazoo which is super hard to productionize.
This drives the stock price to $4k to $8k in 2031 which is think is applicable for a company that makes >50% of the worlds cars, >75% of the worlds grid storage and 40% of the worlds consumer miles driven.
With all due respect!
/s
