Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

This initial push up is only the beginning, this is a reaction to the delivery beat, but very little of it is due to EPS revisions... yet. Most of those revisions will be heading up over the next couple weeks and we should see street estimates raise to the 1.65-1.70 level from the 1.43 level now. Once that hits, we should see an even stronger climb.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ford and GM up more than Tesla, I guess words mean more than actions

I used to care about what Ford or GM or VW do stock-wise……..but given what we’re on the cusp of - 4 Giga factories being operational, now I actually get amused by their valuation going higher. That’s dead money walking and it will be incredibly fun to watch it all melt down by the beginning of 2023

 

[StealthP3D]

I think Japan could slap a giant tariff on imported cars, to preserve the home market for native OEMs. If the cheapest Tesla was +$20k that would definitely make it less attractive than a Honda to many buyers. Perhaps a large subsidy for local OEMs if a tariff doesn’t work. I don’t see how a market the size of Japan could save a company the size of Toyota, though.

Are you aware that Japan, by a large margin, exports most of the cars they make? Do you really think they want to start an automobile trade war? How many North Americans are going to buy an already over-priced Toyota when it costs $20K more? Big tariffs cannot save ICE sales - it would be a disaster for the Japanese auto industry (and they know it).

 

[ZachF]

Some things to think about from the "hurr durrr Tesla has a 400x P/E!!! It's way overvalued!!" crowd:

Tesla will probably make ~$2 billion this quarter, which is $8b annualized. That puts the price to current earnings at ~100. Current market P/E is about 33.

Tesla will probably make ~$12 billion next year. This puts the Price to next year's earnings at ~67... only double the market as a whole (probably around 30 for 2022E to P) for a stock with a current CAGR of >50%.

2023, Tesla will probably earn ~$18 billion, that's a forward-looking P/E of about ~44 vs ~28 for broader market... Now I suppose you can see where this trend is going...

2024: ~29 vs ~26
2025: ~20 vs ~23 (now lower than market as a whole!)

etc....

In short, this talking point is the equivalent of driving forward using only your rear-view mirror.

 

[Drax7]

Ford and GM up more than Tesla, I guess words mean more than actions

The power of propaganda, frightening

 

[Krugerrand]

We are already seeing (political) efforts to slow tesla down in the USA whilst helping out the competition.

Will any of it work? Unliekly, but it will drag out the whole thing for much longer which is not what we need, esp if you are taking a short position against toyota..

I’m not sure it will drag things out that much longer. There will come a point when what they’re doing/trying to do will no longer make sense even to them. A point when the damage inflicted can’t be slowed at all. Essentially when the jugular of the industry/industries is cut.

I believe that point is reached solely based on how fast Tesla can go. And I don’t think they can slow Tesla down. They can give the impression and can perhaps in some markets occasionally create some chaos, but Tesla will simply navigate around as they have up to this point.

Tesla can not be bought. It can’t be corrupted. It can’t be coerced. And if you want to try and hurt it then you have to deal with the man at the top, who will go to the mat and fight for morality, ethics and truth backed by millions of followers/supporters.

No. This gets done right on schedule and that schedule is solely based on the speed of Tesla.

 

[Mengy]

This initial push up is only the beginning, this is a reaction to the delivery beat, but very little of it is due to EPS revisions... yet. Most of those revisions will be heading up over the next couple weeks and we should see street estimates raise to the 1.65-1.70 level from the 1.43 level now. Once that hits, we should see an even stronger climb.

Agreed. November should be great fun! Although I think the real fireworks won't happen until January after Q4 earnings.

 

[elasalle]

Ford and GM up more than Tesla, I guess words mean more than actions

Every other day, there are articles about who's next in the EV revolution.
For most folks(who don't already have shares, and done due diligence) - TSLA looks costly and the others look cheap.

 

[ZachF]

Are you aware that Japan, by a large margin, exports most of the cars they make? Do you really think they want to start an automobile trade war? How many North Americans are going to buy an already over-priced Toyota when it costs $20K more? Big tariffs cannot save ICE sales - it would be a disaster for the Japanese auto industry (and they know it).

This and horrific demographics is why I'm pretty bearish on Japan. It unfortunately will likely be a aged rust-belt country a decade or two from now.

Japan is a net-exporter of around 4m ICE vehicles per year. The reluctance of their auto industry to venture into EVs is truly moronic, IMHO.

 

[ammulder]

Are you aware that Japan, by a large margin, exports most of the cars they make? Do you really think they want to start an automobile trade war? How many North Americans are going to buy an already over-priced Toyota when it costs $20K more? Big tariffs cannot save ICE sales - it would be a disaster for the Japanese auto industry (and they know it).

Yes, of course -- I meant for this to be taken in the context of nations bailing out their local OEMs. I'm saying... if it comes to desperate measures for Japan to try to bail out their auto industry... They would be screwing Toyota by starting a trade war, but if Toyota is already unable to sell in foreign markets because their product can't compete, I don't think throwing some more yen at them to build better hybrids is going to solve it. What could they do to preserve the husk of the local OEMs?

 

[TheWalkingDad]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1445016116762394627

Someone tell me why Ford stock is up today?

 

[phantasms]

Anyone have a chart of OEM sales the past few quarters vs Tesla?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Agreed. November should be great fun! Although I think the real fireworks won't happen until January after Q4 earnings.

All this stuff is now well known by any investing entity with 3 or more brain cells. What I think we'll see from this morning thru about Thanksgiving (if needed) is a massive game of chicken.

There's still TONS of funds benchmarked to the sp500 holding insufficient TSLA to keep up. As $1000+ becomes a good bet for February, or even this time next year, who can afford to be holding "SP500 minus TSLA" when TSLA has such a high relative weight? That would clearly be suicide.

 

[scaesare]

I actually believe Tesla has succeeded more because they’re willing to do it themselves as relying on others has brought on many of the issues.

We need more batteries. We’re telling the whole world we need more batteries. Who moved first? Tesla. It doesn’t count after the fact in my world.

We need to improve manufacturing processes. Make better use of factory space. Simplify the process. Make cars like Mattel makes toys. Who moved first? Tesla.

Make us space age doors. We tried, we failed. Never mind we’ll do it ourselves.

Build us safe and comfortable seats for cars. Pfft! Never mind we’ll do it.

More raw materials? Fine we’ll look into going directly to the mines.
We need special stainless steel - meh, we’ll come up with the formula ourselves. Oh, did we forget Tesla’s foundry?

Solar has to have battery storage and an integrated inverter and smart software - yup, we got this ourselves.

Chip shortage? Fine, we’ll just do some new software so we can use whatever chips we can get our hands on. Oh, it’s too expensive for Tesla to mfg their own chips. Uh, huh.

Insurance costs our customers too much. Fine, we’ll do that too.

And we’ll build our own AI stuff and Dojo and a Tesla bot and on the list goes.

I think it irks Elon to no end that he has to depend on others; others who move like snails, others who can’t deliver what they promise, others who don’t get it.

How many times has he said in frustration, we can only go as fast as the slowest part? We have to go faster.

No. As much as you think partnerships and relationships will grow in number and significance, I believe the opposite will happen simply because nobody to date has stepped up to the table and laid it all out. Everyone else is playing at it. Some playing better, but nobody risking everything for all except Elon and his companies.

Indeed.

And their own aluminum alloy.

And their own lithium extraction process.

And rubber tire compound.

And ultrasonic door sensors.

And battery formation hardware.

And custom radar firmware.

And... and... and....

 

[22522]

We all need to put this in perspective. On battery day Tesla explicitly stated they would use different chemistries for given purposes. There is every reason to suggest they'll try to evolve to a standard format that can be deployed for all chemistries. We might think of that more akin to the commercial paint suppliers that have one to several bases, and supply color on a customized basis. Tesla could very well follow the CATL practice which does cell to pack on a generally standard basis, but can fill the cells on a customized basis.

Tesla already has done that, but ended out with a need to be flexible due to acute cell shortages. With Panasonic and LG both working to supply 4680's and CATL supplying elegant cell to pack designs it si likely that Tesla structural packs will end out vastly cheaper, lighter and more efficient, not to mention being more flexible.

Unlike some of us, I'd happily wager that by 2024 Tesla will be pretty much standardized in form, but with substantial differences in chemistry and cell design from application to application. That will allow standardized and highly scalable production lines for vehicles and stationary packs, while having optimized cells for specific applications. Further, I strongly believe that from Model '2' to Model X, Cybertruck to semi, Powerwall to Megapack, the fundamental pack designs will be standardized. This will allow rapid changes and new deployments coupled with much simplified scale.

During the Musk-Diess conversations this topic must have been featured. VAG has been highly successful with standardizing of many components from Bugatti to Fox. Dimensions and modularity have been huge advantages for them. Tesla has done that with motors from SpaceX to Model 3. The problem has been scaling of battery suppliers

Those all solve within three years at worst, more like two years most likely.

Innovation will stop? Help me understand why you are not saying that Tesla will become and old company in 2 years? Like when Henry Ford ran someone's prototype through the shredder?

 

[ninpb]

There's still TONS of funds benchmarked to the sp500 holding insufficient TSLA to keep up.

How do you find this info?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

How do you find this info?

I believe it is actually trackable, I'm quoting current sentiment on this board and other places I follow.

Shocking to me that these funds would all have bought in over one of the many deep dips we've seen since inclusion.

I'll see if I can find a link to the tracking info.

 

[82bert]

13+ million in the first hour is not enough to keep it propped up?!

 

[Rarity]

> So the short answer is .. why not both?
Of course, why not. My answer to OP's question wasn't saying anything against Tesla growing, intending to grow talent in Austin.

On talents in different departments being in two different locations, usually companies tend to have them co-located, even if it is Vehicle Manufacturing, Batteries Vs Hardware, Software.

I must say, Austin is not perceived to be as right leaning as Texas as a whole. That helps a bit.
I emphasize this point because significant part of talent pool in SV (and US in general) in computer hardware, software, robotics are 1st generation immigrants.

What is happening here with Tesla seems to be different than what is happening with others. Others appear to be setting up shop in Austin as a satellite office and the center of gravity will remain in SV. They are also mostly coming to terms with remote work.

On the other hand, Tesla's center of gravity will be Austin. This is necessarily so, just based on the amount of land used and headcount looking out 5 years. And I believe that Tesla is 100% on-site for all positions. Would be happy to be corrected on that.

Regarding politics, it is important to note that despite all the headlines, Texas is a lot more heterogenous politically than SV. The real meaning of what you are saying seems to be that people in SV prefer the left to be ascendant, and as much and as uniformly so as possible. No "gentrifying Mordor" among these folks.

 

[scaesare]

AFIk the nuclear industry was supposed to supply them with large quantities of 'free' hydrogen...

They did get a bunch... it's what blew up their reactor buildings!