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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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"There IS no Model 2". -- Oct 08, 2021
 
Is that your quote? 🤣

No, but I do hear distant thunder approaching:
  • Texas Model Y - 2021Q4 1st Production
  • Fremont 4680 - 10 GWh/yr cells to start
  • FSD feature complete - $1B+ revenue released
  • Valuation Allowance - $2B+ revenue released
  • CEO tranches fully paid out - The Taxman Goeth
  • Model 2 - Giga Shanghai construction begins
  • CATL LTP Apr 2022 - last U.S. Patents expire
  • Tesla pays off most of its long-term debt
  • Credit-ratings Agencies forced to upgrade Tesla
JPMorgan Chase and Citadel Securities fear what's coming, but are powerless to stop it or to get out of the way. Wait for the signal...

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"Strength and Honor
 
We appear to be camping out in the low $780s. So gather around the campfire. We'll sing cowboy songs, and @Krugerrand will recount to us tales from his cat wrangling days. Better than beans, boys and girls.

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After reading about the company that kicked out all the EVs not Tesla, I was inspired to continue with the FUD destroying microscopic view of the Tesla value chain that is not easily matched.

Camp Mode during the 53 hour freeze:
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And a short list of the music one discovers when you say, “Play Home on the Range by Gene Autry.”

Michael Bublé’s version of Feeling Good and Elvis singing a song I had never heard called Mean Woman Blues.

Both well done. [I had never heard Feeling Good by anyone but Nina Simone.]

So Tesla benefits include:
  1. Not freezing to death
  2. Not dying of carbon monoxide [or dioxide - for all the Toyota fans] poisoning in the closed ecosystem of a closed garage - anything to stay warm.
  3. A campfire audio and tactile experience that everyone shares. See photo above.
And then of course Gene Autry, Michael Bublé [Home is there, too], and Elvis on audio cue.

Where is the competition that delivers this set of meaningful to me benefits?
 
No, but I do hear distant thunder approaching:
  • Texas Model Y - 2021Q4 1st Production
  • Fremont 4680 - 10 GWh/yr cells to start
  • FSD feature complete - $1B+ revenue released
  • Valuation Allowance - $2B+ revenue released
  • CEO tranches fully paid out - The Taxman Goeth
  • Model 2 - Giga Shanghai construction begins
  • CATL LTP Apr 2022 - last U.S. Patents expire
  • Tesla pays off most of its long-term debt
  • Credit-ratings Agencies forced to upgrade Tesla
JPMorgan Chase and Citadel Securities fear what's coming, but are powerless to stop it or to get out of the way. Wait for the signal...

3f039802fd0c99ccecf10f052934f65f.jpg


"Strength and Honor
What I'm finding from the AGM and other recent updates is that the above items feel far more certain now compared to a couple of years ago - it's hard to think of events that would derail them coming to pass.
  • The order backlog has shown there is insatiable demand for Tesla's products. Regulatory support for EVs keeps getting stronger every year - underwriting demand.
  • The cash on the balance sheet has de-risked Tesla to the point of minimal concerns and margins continue to get fatter - underwriting future growth.
  • Elon's mark on Tesla's culture seems so cemented in that innovation should continue for decades even if something were to happen to him.
  • New factories are close to completion - locking in the next leg of volume production
  • While real competition always seemed unlikely, VW's recent comments revealed that they are even behind on manufacturing removes that one final angle legacy auto had to catch up.
Dare I say it, but the next few years may be relatively dull compared to the last few.

The die has been gigacast.
 
Watching a stream from Giga Berlin. Seems that they got a pretty close look at the production in action, but without any parts being sent between the robots. But I assume there is a lot of information from high res pictures of the events from us to analyze, and also for competition to analyze…


Live from the County Fair:


Despite the low image quality of the stream, it really captures the atmosphere nicely.

Also a tip for others: make the YouTube window size nice and small then it's easier to see what's what due to the very low resolution.
 
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Lol, "diworsify"... :p


Cheers!
Peter Lynch of Fidelity Magellan fame needs to be mentioned here.


The value chain details I bring as an experiential owner are giving non owner investors the insights that Lynch says are vital and that he used to guide his investment decisions - Essentially using his book as a template to provide information in a format that those who have read the book and applied his techniques are used to.

That is why I put them in this forum.

I think he introduced me to the term deworsification

Recently something from here lead to “all real gains are made through concentration” which is kind of a different way to state it.

The key is mitigating risk by some means other than deworsification …
 
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