Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Today's chart is starting to look a lot like the 6 month chart.

We gone splode soon.

This does look most unusual. Three martini lunch with the intern in charge?

 

[petit_bateau]

Yes they have 3 at the moment, 2 working 3rd being setup and a 4th coming.

one is enough to do 500k + front castings at 80% uptime, a second is enough to do 500k+ rear castings at 80% uptime, which services the first Y line of 500k/yr cars

.... so #3 and #4 will service thee second Y line of 500k/yr cars.

How fast can BMW go bust ?

 

[jkirkwood001]

View attachment 720659

Haha! that's even worse! Clearly he wasn't much of a business analyst

 

[jhm]

$TSLA: Knock, knock!
$810: Who's there?
$TSLA: It's TSLA.
$810: TSLA who...
$TSLA: Cut the crap! Mule's gonna 'splode if you don't let us through.

Mule:

 

[S3XY]

You need to drive like Grandma to get FSD beta, and 1st thing you do is drive +5 above speed limit ?

If we take the whole humanity evolution arc from cell .. monkey to human ... where is FSD on a similar arc? Can walk on two feet? discovered fire ? learnt to scribble? learnt to talk?

The scoring system seems to allow at least +5 MPH over the limit without penalty. I regularly drive 5-8 over and have a 99 score. My only dings have been aggressive turns.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I see the shenanigans with LEAPS/Calls are back in action.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This does look most unusual. Three martini lunch with the intern in charge?

I think feeding interns got too expensive, it's just the algos in charge now.

 

[mongo]

one is enough to do 500k + front castings at 80% uptime, a second is enough to do 500k+ rear castings at 80% uptime, which services the first Y line of 500k/yr cars

.... so #3 and #4 will service thee second Y line of 500k/yr cars.

How fast can BMW go bust ?

Gigapress cycle time is 80-90 seconds. Two for each casting (four total) are needed to support the 45 seconds per car, 500k+ per year production rate.
With 8 Giga Presses, Tesla Giga Berlin’s 500k annual estimate looks conservative

 

[The Accountant]

Q3 Earning Estimates
Here are the Q3 forecasts that we have thus far:

I am concerned because I am actually higher than Warren Redlich the ultra-Bull.

My numbers:
- exclude any potential impairment charge for Bitcoin (could range from $0.00 to $0.08 per share)
- exclude any recognition of FSD Deferred Revenue
- exclude any recognition of the Deferred Tax Benefit


Still waiting on forecasts from Rob Maurer, James Stephenson and the Tesla Economist.
I will post my detailed forecast in the other thread shortly.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You know what's great? QQQ is down 4.15% in the last month, and the CNBC clowns are saying everyone's looking for a bottom in this mini-correction. Meanwhile, MM's can't even hold TSLA back on an average volume day more than a week before earnings.

There should be a nice macro rebound just getting started this time next week. Thinking about MM's and hedgefunds eating all these buy orders and effectively digging a deeper short hole is just a delight.

The Battle for Eight-Eleven goes on!

 

[jkirkwood001]

Forget Fords loan plans. THIS is why they're up!:

(Yes, it's real. The QR code takes you here, there's no date, but it says 2021)

Weird. As anybody familiar with software knows, it's much cheaper to keep all your customers on n-1 versions, to reduce your support and testing costs. That's one reason why most software is going to the Cloud for better, (much) cheaper products.

If I'm Ford and don't incentivize my customers to upgrade, think about their legal exposure if a customer crashes because they had out-of-date software in their car, that Ford could have pushed down.

It's in the manufacturer's best interest that their client base is current! It's not worth $100 if I have to support another legacy version.

Sheesh - when will these dinosaurs get it...

 

[lafrisbee]

In Florida and I expect other states self driving cars are required to obey all traffic laws. They won’t be allowed to speed.

You might want to verify that. I can think of NO case where that is true. Only when an object is not legal 100% of the time may it even begin to be controlled. Case in point... cars that could drive greater than the maximum speed limit on Florida roads would be illegal...especialy "cruise control."

 

[H Mak]

Q3 Earning Estimates
Here are the Q3 forecasts that we have thus far:

View attachment 720699

I am concerned because I am actually higher than Warren Redlich the ultra-Bull.

My numbers:
- exclude any potential impairment charge for Bitcoin (could range from $0.00 to $0.08 per share)
- exclude any recognition of FSD Deferred Revenue
- exclude any recognition of the Deferred Tax Benefit


Still waiting on forecasts from Rob Maurer, James Stephenson and the Tesla Economist.
I will post my detailed forecast in the other thread shortly.

That's helpful thanks. Do you think it's much of an issue that the 2 new factories are close to opening and they will be incurring close to the normal operational costs but without any revenues?

 

[Mokuzai]

@The Accountant @Artful Dodger @Curt Renz @Papafox

I’m just going to fall right on my sword — I’ve been name dropping. I’ve been referring folks to TMC and specifically telling them to check you guys out.

I just drove from Southern California to New Orleans to Tuscaloosa Alabama and now I’m driving home. I’ve been telling folks about you guys all across America. I’m hoping forgiveness is easier than permission.

Oddly, I ran into a fellow Southern California TMC’er at a Supercharger in Meridian Mississippi. We maybe growing exponentially, but it’s still a small world. A shout to Mace; very cool plaid Model S.

Yes very small world. I saw your car as I was pulling into the SuC and thought I recognized your custom plate. So random to meet like that on the other side of the country within the charging window.

Showed the Plaid to a MX owner I met at the hotel I'm staying at. At first he said he was considering an Etron GT for his next car. After letting him see the improvements in the MS and taking him on a couple launches he said "that's it...I'm ordering one".

 

[Huskerfl]

Be careful of charging over at Tupelo, MS at night. The mall area is sketchy. I had to charge around 10-11pm one night, and some weird sketchy people came around and I was the only one in the tesla charger station. They asked for some $ to get some "gas" LOL, but super sketchy at night. Be safe!

We had a similar experience at the supercharger in Macon, GA on MLK blvd. They have since closed that location.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Q3 Earning Estimates
Here are the Q3 forecasts that we have thus far:

View attachment 720699

I am concerned because I am actually higher than Warren Redlich the ultra-Bull.

My numbers:
- exclude any potential impairment charge for Bitcoin (could range from $0.00 to $0.08 per share)
- exclude any recognition of FSD Deferred Revenue
- exclude any recognition of the Deferred Tax Benefit


Still waiting on forecasts from Rob Maurer, James Stephenson and the Tesla Economist.
I will post my detailed forecast in the other thread shortly.

Btw, I watched Matt Smith's video breaking down his Q3 earnings estimates. His ASP for 3/Y is way too low.

He's actually forecasting a drop in ASP for 3/Y. Even if you don't believe the price hikes will have effect in Q3, you still have :

- All European Model Y's are LR
- European Model 3 trims skewed heavily towards LR/P trims
- US orders being pushed towards LR and P trims of 3/Y through estimated delivery dates
- Even with Model Y SR being introduced in Sept in China, the ASP is still higher than a Model 3 SR and since Model Y's in totality make up a larger percentage mix of China sales, ASP will still go higher.

If you increase the ASP in Matt's model to where I think ASP should be, it takes you very close to your estimate.

 

[BornToFly]

You need to drive like Grandma to get FSD beta, and 1st thing you do is drive +5 above speed limit ?

Depending on where you live, +5 means that cars are only blowing past you by 10mph instead of 15.... It really needs to be Speedlimit, + what ever it takes to keep up.

 

[Nocturnal]

Q3 Earning Estimates
Here are the Q3 forecasts that we have thus far:

View attachment 720699

I am concerned because I am actually higher than Warren Redlich the ultra-Bull.

My numbers:
- exclude any potential impairment charge for Bitcoin (could range from $0.00 to $0.08 per share)
- exclude any recognition of FSD Deferred Revenue
- exclude any recognition of the Deferred Tax Benefit


Still waiting on forecasts from Rob Maurer, James Stephenson and the Tesla Economist.
I will post my detailed forecast in the other thread shortly.

I don't think impairment is possible. BTC 6 month low was back in June.

 

[Dreadnought]

I've been using the beta now for a couple days, having taken 10-15 drives around the city with it. I'm honestly a bit perplexed at how badly it handles certain situations. It fails to act normally in what seems like a very uncomplicated situation. Then other times it performs really well in what seems like a complicated situation. In general, based on the visualizations I would say that it seems to understand the world quite well, but makes poor decisions based on that data. It's really quite amusing to have it sometimes start a right turn and then stomp on the brakes in the middle of the intersection with no other cars oncoming, but then also on a random unprotected left turn find an appropriate gap between oncoming cars and begin accelerating before the first car passes to perfectly and smoothly maneuver through the gap.

Despite my complaints I do see a clear path to success here though at least as far as assisted driving goes. I look forward to seeing improvements as updates are released.

Thanks for sharing your preliminary impressions. Perception is the more difficult task and improving the path planner is comparatively "easy".

FF a few minutes, I'm not on a computer where I can view youtube, but I distinctly remember him doing 30 in a 25, and 25 in a 20 through most of the first 30 minutes of the video. I was discussing it with someone else while watching it and paused it multiple times to show them the speed offset.

I was generalizing when I said he started at +5, forgive me for not creating dozens of timestamps showing all the times he was at +5.

Pulling it up on my phone he goes to +5 at 7:44 in the video and stays there for quite some time, I'm not going to waste my mobile data checking for further timestamps.

Quick fix obviously would be to limit FSD similar as EAP that strictly adheres to speed limits outside of highways (at least that's default behavior in Germany). Proper solution would be that FSD interprets the setting as "passenger is fine with exceeding speed limit" and limits speed to whatever is safe. EAP already slows down for curves, approaching intersections etc. Piece of cake compared to other challenges.

And for anyone still convinced that robotaxis will not be available by 2030:
Tesla started selling the mobileye-based initial AP version in late 2014 or seven years ago. You do the math.

 

[22522]

Q3 Earning Estimates
Here are the Q3 forecasts that we have thus far:

View attachment 720699

I am concerned because I am actually higher than Warren Redlich the ultra-Bull.

My numbers:
- exclude any potential impairment charge for Bitcoin (could range from $0.00 to $0.08 per share)
- exclude any recognition of FSD Deferred Revenue
- exclude any recognition of the Deferred Tax Benefit


Still waiting on forecasts from Rob Maurer, James Stephenson and the Tesla Economist.
I will post my detailed forecast in the other thread shortly.

The concern is great. Same number of shares. Same number sold. Margin estimates different based on China cost structure and number of units that contribution is applied to?