Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Maybe too late, but one thing I've learned is that the stock not responding to positive news for a given period of time makes it incrementally more likely to respond the next time, not less. It's just coiling the spring when we don't see it in the SP. A related risk for TMC bulls is being too early, and thinking that since "markets are efficient", we must be wrong. We haven't been so far.

Never judge how good an investment is by the current stock price. It's not uncommon for the share price of a good company to be disconnected from reality for extended periods of time and if you turn bearish on a company simply because it's not responding as soon as you think it should, you lose.

 

[StealthP3D]

we are very close to a milestone where I can tell my wife "I told you so" when she suggested we dump some TSLA earlier in the year when it was in the mid 800s and I said it will keep going up over the long run and we should hold. The intervening 6-8 months have been moderately painful as she periodically reminded me that we should have sold, but soon the tables will turn.

When it's at $1600 and you remind her that she wanted to sell at $800 she will probably say, "Yeah, but I would have bought back at $600 and we would have 1/3 more shares!".

 

[Ocelot]

I saw poetry in the AM. Maybe we should rethink the poetry stance? Lyrics seem to be an exception. . I am quite confident that lyrics posted was the catalyst for today’s price action.


The wheel is turning and you can't slow down,
You can't let go and you can't hold on,
You can't go back and you can't stand still,
If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will.

 

[HG Wells]

Is there a site that shows historical data for CALLS.

All of my LEAPS went DOWN today.

Example
Jan 2021 800 -$0.80 (Should have a fair number of trades)
Jan 2023 650 -$5.72 -2% (LOW TRADES)
Mar 2023 850 -$7.11 -3.74% (LOW TRADES)

 

[kanweg]

TSLA All-time High Closing Price - Rank Order (as of Fri, Oct 15, 2021)​

Rank:​	Date:​	Close:​
1​	01-26-21​	$883.09​
2​	01-25-21​	$880.80​
3​	01-08-21​	$880.02​
4​	02-02-21​	$872.79​
5​	01-27-21​	$864.16​
6​	02-08-21​	$863.42​
7​	02-03-21​	$854.69​
8​	01-13-21​	$854.41​
9​	02-05-21​	$852.23​
10​	01-20-21​	$850.45​
11​	02-04-21​	$849.99​
12​	02-09-21​	$849.46​
13​	01-12-21​	$849.44​
14​	01-22-21​	$846.64​
15​	01-14-21​	$845.00​
16​	01-21-21​	$844.99​
17​	01-19-21​	$844.55​
18​	10-15-21​	$843.03​

So that's:

• 3 in the 880s
• 1 in the 870s
• 2 in the 860s
• 4 in the 850s
• 8 in the 840s

Cheers!

In Euro’s we are almost at the ATH. 26 January the highest closing price was E726.30, versus now E726.00

 

[Christine69420]

Youtube suggested this clip about preparing workers for job opportunities at Giga Texas:

An interesting way to get a good job for people who don't necessarily have a long education.

 

[NicoV]

Is there a site that shows historical data for CALLS.

All of my LEAPS went DOWN today.

Example
Jan 2021 800 -$0.80 (Should have a fair number of trades)
Jan 2023 650 -$5.72 -2% (LOW TRADES)
Mar 2023 850 -$7.11 -3.74% (LOW TRADES)

Yahoo.
e.g. TSLA230120C00650000 (TSLA230120C00650000) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

 

[The Accountant]

@Todd Burch & @ByeByeJohnny informed me that Maurer changed his Q3 EPS down to $2.10 (from $2.16) as he now projects a Bitcoin impairment of $72m.
Anyhow, his $2.10 is still the highest that I have seen for those providing detailed forecasts.
Our always bullish @StarFoxisDown! prognosticates $2.12 to $2.20. His gut/back of the envelope number may be better than all the spreadsheets.

I have not projected an impairment as I believe the impairment calculation is not that straightforward.
For those interested in my impairment thoughts, you can look at this post here:

Bitcoin - Potential Q2 2021 Impact

I guess in general we over estimated the impairment amount: https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/ZBOUYO_TSLA_Q2_2021_Update_DJCVNJ.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline;filename="q2_2021.pdf" But I got pretty close: Pretty Close? I would say you nailed it !!!!!

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Drezil]

Is there a site that shows historical data for CALLS.

All of my LEAPS went DOWN today.

Example
Jan 2021 800 -$0.80 (Should have a fair number of trades)
Jan 2023 650 -$5.72 -2% (LOW TRADES)
Mar 2023 850 -$7.11 -3.74% (LOW TRADES)

That's what low IV does for you. IV is trending down until ~850-900 depending on expiration. After that it will pick up again additionally to the Delta.

 

[OrthoSurg]

19 mins in Chamath predicting a hit to tech stocks following inflation / interest rate rises due to ports being blocked etc. Even if this were to happen presumably TSLA will escape the worst of it as an auto stock.

Sacks makes the point that the Fed has a dilemma - control inflation by putting up interest rates which would massively increase government borrowing repayments.

Chamath is predicting a tech stock hit with raising fed rates, that’s why he is investing in collapsing SPACs instead

 

[SPadival]

Is there a site that shows historical data for CALLS.

All of my LEAPS went DOWN today.

Charles Schwab has up to 9 month historical data shown alongside the chart, but hidden under Detailed Real-Time Quotes>>Summary Quote>>Chart.

Weirdly, the option price shown in the portfolio(& above) may not be the closing price (last sale) of the day (as shown in Yahoo Finance/Nasdaq). I have given up trying to understand this.

My LEAPS usually exaggerates the swing in the same direction as the stock price.

 

[Singuy]

I am wondering if asp will shoot up starting q4. Seems like Tesla is purposely producing the lowest margin cars later and later to discourage ordering. Base white with aero sr+ is now 1 year out, but changing just the color from white will reduce a quarter worth of wait time. Lr can be delivered before the year end. So it'll not be surprising if we have like 80/20 mix of lr/sr+ for the next few Q as people are forced to order what is avaliable.

 

[Zaxxon]

Interesting that in attendance at VW Group's upper management meeting today, discussing ways to evolve the company for the future, was one... Elon Musk.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1449333401048293378

 

[winfield100]

I need anti FUD help guys.

There is that financial independance group with a long standing member spreading constantly FUD about Tesla. He has been doing that over more than 3-4 years. He has shifted the view on Tesla for many Canadian MDs in the group over the years and has been bashing Tesla in the group of 10,000+ MDs. He has been praised as one the best investor over the years and the majority have been listening to his investment advices. He is deeply invested in oil and has just moved all his assets offshore because of the upcoming raise in capital gains from. Canadian government.

I have been enduring his anti-Tesla posts for couple years know but now it has reached a point of non sense that needs to be adresses. What approach would you recommend to counter his FUD? https://m.facebook.com/comment/repl...mention&notif_id=1634257519434959&ref=m_notif

He keeps linking CNN articles and his main arguments is that Chinese EV manufacturers bill beat Tesla price and quality and that nobody wants to own specifically a Tesla, that people want to own EVs and that’s what people are missing. He expects TSLA to reach a peak and collapse, he sold 75% of his position in 2020.

@OrthoSurg
depending upon the effort (and if this wasn’t mentioned in the next 20 pages (or if was apologies)
if you have the time do a 1,600+ km relaxed road trip to warmer climates, documenting trip time and refueling time, and back, and cost of fuel, perhaps a rapid montage of pictures in a 30 seconds 1 minute total clip.

not so casually mention _one_ of Elon’s other companies sends civilians on 3 day trips orbiting the planet, and is doing a remote lunar lander to the moon next year, plus a few more civilians space orbiting trips next year,

a 90 minute point to point, texas to hawaii,

how TSLA was $30/share in 2010, now,$4,215/share, up 140x, still in beginning of log growth phase like pseudomonas and other overwhelming, rapid overgrowth organisms. (appeal to their medical)

another company, Neuralink, playing on their doctor egos, is doing brain/computer interfaces, (medical)
another company, Starlink, is taking over internet ISP’s

 

[Thekiwi]

Interesting that in attendance at VW Group's upper management meeting today, discussing ways to evolve the company for the future, was one... Elon Musk.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1449333401048293378

Wow. That’s quite something.

 

[22522]

Interesting that in attendance at VW Group's upper management meeting today, discussing ways to evolve the company for the future, was one... Elon Musk.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1449333401048293378

Strategically, Elon has mentioned that he needs another manufacturer to achieve the mission.
To get to Mars, and if you look at the delivery sequence of ordered vehicles, Elon likes to build high margin vehicles.
VW management has metrics that might be met by building low margin EVs.
VW used to be good at politics. They have brands that address niche/capped markets.

 

[ZachF]

Ready for next week... (hopefully blowout) Q3 earnings and finally seeing Dune on IMAX. aww yeah.

 

[Maarten]

Yesterday was for us something like 2013 revisited, when we (at that time) went to a small Tesla shop in The Netherlands, where the only 5 Model S'es were in the whole of Europe.
It was there and then that we made our first ride with a Model S, instantly fell in love with it, and made a reservation.
And where I decided that I would invest big-time in what clearly was the future. Did it and I haven't regretted it.

Back to yesterday: we travelled in one of only two Tesla taxis that are being used in multi-million city of Jakarta.
We became aware of their availability by a driver of the number one taxi company in Indonesia (both in numbers and professionally): Bluebird.
They have a premier service called Silverbird, as can be seen on the roof of the Model X in the photo's.
Of course we (successfully) tried to make a reservation for our ride to the airport after an 8 day quarantine, necessary for our trip to Bali.
And what a great ride it was, with the hepa-filter in the dirty Jakarta air.
The enthousiast driver told us that Bluebird bought 5 Tesla's Model X, of which they operate now 2, because the other are in repair. Bought them while Tesla as a company is not in Indonesia yet.
They try, with help from outside, to maintain the Tesla's and invested in them because they think they are the future.

Clearly Bluebird has management with vision making this move and they found out that the Tesla's are in constant high demand.

In Amsterdam a lot of people came for the first time in contact with Tesla because of the many Tesla's that are being used as a taxi at Schiphol International airport.
That has been, till today, a clear and sure gateway to sell a lot of Tesla's.
Hope Tesla will do the same in Jakarta, I think they (and we) will not regret it.

Attached a few photo's of the taxi and the proud driver, who was selected to have the honour to drive one of the Model X's (Note: see the driver of a Toyota taxi in the back looking).

 

[Singuy]

Interesting that in attendance at VW Group's upper management meeting today, discussing ways to evolve the company for the future, was one... Elon Musk.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1449333401048293378

Good for vw who has a forward looking Ceo not afraid to eat some humble pie as he recognize the transition is no joke. GL to all the other arrogant legacy manufactures. The MSM you guys buy up can only protect you for so long. Looks like time is running out as people are more immune to their BS.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Interesting that in attendance at VW Group's upper management meeting today, discussing ways to evolve the company for the future, was one... Elon Musk.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1449333401048293378

Lol, anybody else remember 38 months ago when VW had the chance to BUY Tesla for $40B and they said no?

Well, that's now the worst investment decision in history. VW missed out on 20x ROI on a $40B investment in just over 3 years.

Now, they're hiring Elon as a Management Consultant. Wonder who does their taxes?

Cheers!