I see a too aggressive rollout of FSD as the biggest risk to the TSLA valuation. Given that Tesla self-insures, any mistake by FSD will have to be compensated by Tesla. As we saw from the recent lawsuit about racism, victims will want to take advantage of Tesla by demanding ridiculous compensations. As long as the driver is ultimately responsible, there’s not a lot of risk involved, but as soon Tesla takes over the responsibility for the actions of FSD, FSD should be bulletproof.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I see a too aggressive rollout of FSD as the biggest risk to the TSLA valuation. Given that Tesla self-insures, any mistake by FSD will have to be compensated by Tesla. As we saw from the recent lawsuit about racism, victims will want to take advantage of Tesla by demanding ridiculous compensations. As long as the driver is ultimately responsible, there’s not a lot of risk involved, but as soon Tesla takes over the responsibility for the actions of FSD, FSD should be bulletproof.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
You're allowed to make sweeping generalizations about caucasian males above 50 years old. Did you not get the memo?
Just look at this thread. People are losing their freakin minds over nothing. Poor Sandy couldn't even finish his video he was so livid that Missy was literally destroying the country.
Is it 4:01 yet?
lafrisbee
Active Member
or gender or age... but then again another poster suggested being from a particular State made members less.
Just do not under any circumstance refer to any inferior descriptor in the grouping of people and you won't be "cancelled."
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Top Tesla Q3 2021 earnings call questions from retail & institutional investors
Top Retail Questions
- What is the Tesla’s goal for vehicle production capacity for the 4 current factories (Fremont, Shanghai, Austin, and Berlin) by 2024?
- Service remains an issue with appointments available weeks, or even months, out. Likewise, Supercharger wait times have become untenable at some locations. What concrete steps is Tesla taking to improve the customer experience in these two key areas?
- Is Tesla considering any other ideas (other than FSD) with real world AI that can bring additional software revenue to Tesla? If not, can Tesla consider building interesting games around FSD data?
- How has FSD take rate changed since introduction of Monthly Subscription? Are there any plans to increase FSD pricing as wider release becomes imminent?
- Can Tesla allow for FSD to be transferred to another vehicle at a fee? (Something less than the 10k)? Early adopters are paying the price if they want to upgrade their vehicle. You lose the value on the trade in and now have to buy in at the now higher cost.
Top Institutional Investor Questions
- When should we expect the first vehicles to be delivered with 4680 cells?
- Do you still expect to start production of the $25,000 model in 2023? What are the biggest hurdles from now until then?
- With FSD Beta training data set to explode exponentially as the software is released to wider and wider audience, are there any early takeaways with regards to how quickly versions can iterate and be pushed out? From bi-weekly to weekly? or even daily?
Krugerrand
Meow
Absolutely not. You don’t get to ignore one side of her person and embrace the other and claim oh, she’s only human. It’s a given she’s human. But, the mistakes count, particularly when a person doesn’t learn from them.
I contend the very nature of Twitter reveals the truth of the heart and soul, if just in the moment. But it’s still truth. When you have to filter yourself; as you do in work, research and the like, that’s just a piece of the person.
I wouldn’t trust this woman’s ‘word’ on anything. She’s ugly inside.
ZachF
Active Member
Low key accusing most of this board of being racist/sexist for posting perfectly reasonable objections over a proven Tesla/Elon-hating NHTSA appointment?
Classy.
You do raise reasonable points. My position on her is based almost entirely on her scientific, technological and experience base. She does tend to disdain loudly opinionated other people and she does so in a flamboyant way. OTOH, she regularly praises SpaceX accomplishments and those fo Tesla also.
In my personal view she really has problems with overbearing and opinionated rich white guys. Thus she simultaneously tends to applaud Tesla while at the same time having strong disagreement with overpromising and underdelivering, specifically doing that with FSD and Autopilot.
Those objections are often spoken here by many of us, not on Twitter, as a rule and certainly not with obnoxious visual aids and quippy snarky statements.
So no question I don't think much of her quips. OTOH, I'm no fan of Elon's either. In both cases I find it appropriate to ignore them, because they are emotional outbursts that harm the overall message.
After that I look at her academic and career progression. Any intelligent person who flew F-18's (I have met a few, not a lot) probably is acutely aware of how dangerous automated systems can be if not thoroughly tested and controlled. The Boeing 787 and 737Max events certainly played a role also.
I am confident that the emotional reactions she displays do fit certain political agendas. Her technical expertise and experience also makes her respect the accomplishments. That is why I am less dismayed than are some of us. That is also why expect her to be pragmatic in fact, so probably a net positive influence on the overall trend towards more automation.
Tesla will benefit in a longer term from increased scrutiny and greater release discipline. Safety scores already seem to be having a positive effect. As a Plaid owner myself, I really wish there were type ratings for them! If she helps advance better discipline I support it.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You might be surprised the stupidity that happens in commercial cockpits on a regular basis! The FAA regulates the hardware and pilot behavior. But pilots still do it their own way with tragically preventable results. You can't regulate stupid. The main difference is when a pilot makes a fatal mistake is often for hundreds of people on board. Yet, they still do stupid things.
Humans will be humans which is why we need FSD. If we treat FSD like NASA treated spaceflight, it won't be deployed until millions of preventable deaths have already occurred. Elon used first principles thinking (which SHOULD be common sense) to bring the space industry up to speed and achieved huge advancements and he can do the same for road safety. But only if the vested interests step off their "holier than thou" platforms and let the real leaders lead.
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The estimates creeped up about 4-9 cent higher than I thought they would since deliveries. $1.69 (and the adjustments to 2021 EPS from that) should price in the 840-850 range... looks like the market has priced in about a ~10-15 cent beat. I'd think if the ~$2 EPS (that I think looks pretty realistic) happens, that should hold the selling the news to a minimum and setup for a push past 900 next week.
JupiterMan
Active Member
this time around the institutional questions are much more appealing than the retail ones, which are somewhat stale from my perspective.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
That's pretty much the opposite of how the courts handle this though.
Generally they give VERY wide and deep deference to the government agencies to regulate. There's no requirement they "follow science", in fact there's generally no requirement at all other than they can offer ANY reasonable argument for the rule- and the reasonableness standard is VERY broad and pretty easy to satisfy.
Google " Chevron v. National Resources Defense Council" and "Auer v. Robbins," for examples of the US Supreme court being clear agencies are afforded a high level of deference as to their interpretations of their own regulations in any case where congress has not given highly specific directions to them.
I'm genuinely curious on #2. I know I don't live in a heavily congested area with a lot of Teslas (exact opposite actually on both counts), but I have driven multiple times cross country in my 3 (2 trips to Florida/Georgia, 1 to Virginia and 1 to Houston) and have experience a wait exactly 1 time and that was a cross state trip in Colorado. Many times I only see 2 or 3 at an 8-12 install. Is this more of a California thing? I've also had no issues with lining up service, but only have had my car looked at twice in the ownership (adding performance package spoiler since I was early and condensation in my taillight).
I do still believe that Tesla should require all people that are accepted into the Beta to watch a safety video and then answer questions related to the video. Simply reading a disclaimer and checking boxes is to easy for people to skip over. Yeah it may say hey checking the box means you are responsible, but we should want more then just CYA. We want success.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Yes, it's a good thing NHTSA stepped in an showed Tesla how to implement safety scores to maintain a high level of safety as they transition users to FSD beta! Just think of how dangerous the world would be without this kind of governmental hand-holding!
I'm all for sensible and orderly regulation but the normal progression of regulation is;
1) identify an existing problem
2) fix it
In this case they are identifying problems that don't exist yet and are largely created from misinformation, imagination and innuendo. Let's let statistics guide the improvements in road safety, never have we had access to so much data, so easily, with which to make our roads continuously more safe.
The tweet persona may have been required to get the job.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Not losing their minds, and its not nothing. There has been a clear progression to this which you are willfully ignoring:
- all Summer, TSLAQ twitter vibrates about emergency vehicle collisions
- early Fall, NHTSA sends a letter to Tesla requesting literally every single piece of information on all Tesla cars, with VINs, software versions, update history
- this is clearly a fishing expedtion (shows no cause for burdensome detail - Due date is TODAY by coincidence)
- Tesla supporters complain that no other Level 2 Driver Assist (DA) provider has been asked for the same level of data
- NHTSA issues letter to other Manufacturers but gives them extended time to provide data; GM responds by stopping deployment of their DA system while blaming 'chip shortage' (but those are different chips)
- Tesla deploys OTA software update which adds emergency vehicle lights detection on highways at night (not part of the Level 2 spec, which is what Autopilot is rated as)
- NHTSA issues another letter asking why this OTA update wasn't issued as a recall (as if it was a issue with the Level 2 compliance, while ignoring the enhanced safety provided)
- finally yesterday, rumors begin circulating that a known Tesla detractor (who has demonstrated bias and conflicts of interest against Elon & Tesla) may be appointed as a 'Senior Safety Advisor' to the NHTSA, who just coincidently happens to subscribe to the TSLAQ block list, and follows many prominent TSLAQ detractors on twitter (smaks of aligned financial interests in seeing Tesla DA systems stopped or delayed)
- These are transparent steps by the Adminstration which signal their intention to interfere with not only FSD beta, but any other form of DA system that Tesla has ever made, regardless of safety history, statistics, or update status
- If this unholy alliance succeeds, this could set back or delay the development of autonomous driving for many years at the cost of literally 10s of thousands of lives in needless traffic deaths, all to provide time and cover for Tesla's competitors (who remain firmly unwilling to change, while they wait for a Vendor to magically gift them a solution).
EDIT: TSLA is exactly 11 cents above the Upper-BB at 12 Noon.
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
More specifically, a Twit presence w/appropriate bias may be a key tool used to isolate those candidates considered for the position.
larmor
Active Member
Also:
Buffalo GF progress?
Solar roof tile progress?
Where and when new GF(s)? And will they require external funding?
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