When did post march 2019 FSD became different in it's capabilities promised? Robotaxi capable I believe was said during autonomy day and Elon projected that to include future sales.y
So Zach said something really interesting on the call when asked about revenue recognition for FSD.
Specifically that they'd recognize revenue for a given bunch of folks when:
They delivered the features they were promised at the time they bought it
and it was generally available to them.
That second one is no shock- a few folks thought they'd try some nonsense of recognizing a few beta testers but it was always pretty clear only wide release gets revenue recognition.
The first bit though confirms something I and some others have been saying for a LONG while now.
FSD is not a single product.
FSD sold prior to ~March 2019 is an entirely different product from what has been sold since then.
Delivering FSDBeta- which is explicitly L2 driving on city streets- completes what post 3/19 buyers are "owed" based on what was promised during their sale.
I think 50% is quite low for how likely they are to deliver that on current vehicles, and likely quite a bit sooner than 5 years-- then the remaining FSD revenue for post 3/19 buyers can be fully recognized.... (in the US anyway- overseas there's a lot more regulatory hurdles potentially- but far as we know most of the FSD revenue has been in the US anyway so that's fine)
Pre 3/19 buyers though were sold, at minimum, L4 driving. Which has seemed increasingly unlikely to be deliverable on current HW (in particular HW3 isn't sufficient for redundant operation, and increasingly the cameras look like they might not be sufficient in one or more ways). It's getting into the weeds to go much beyond that here (there's a whole FSD section for such discussion)--- but don't be surprised if some of that "old" FSD deferred revenue remains there for quite a while (or potentially needs to get refunded some day if they decide it's not worth trying to upgrade those cars to the degree they find is needed to be able to deliver the original promise.... we already know by CT they'll be using next-gen cameras, and likely more of them em in more locations for example on top of HW4).
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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When did post march 2019 FSD became different in it's capabilities promised? Robotaxi capable I believe was said during autonomy day and Elon projected that to include future sales.
With every FUD, there is an equal and opposite dose of optimistic exuberant (and completely [un]necessary) imagination.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I suspect market manipulators bought shares to kick off the recent rally (when they saw they could no longer hold it back) so they would have shares to dump at a profit post earnings to create the false impression that the report didn't really excite investors. If past history is any guide, shares will pick back up and hit new highs as organic demand for TSLA shares builds in the investment community in the days following the report (and possibly continuing through to the holidays).
IMO, the market manipulators get a lot of coincidental assistance from regular momentum players who are often on the same buying/selling schedule.
You’re right to demand that she’s judged on her professional expertise, which can be deduced from her published papers.
I did check her publications, back in August when the scandal about her Tesla AP paper happened. Here’s what I found:
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Roughly March 2019
Seriously, the description of the offering during the online sales process was completely rewritten.
THAT is why Zach specifically mentioned delivering what the buyer was promised based on when they bought it.
Elon has been saying LOTS of stuff about self driving since well before autonomy day. Including lots of things with timelines that flew right by. They're not legally binding though. (the fact there's tons of folks who'd have been happy to fund lawsuits otherwise tells you that).
None of it was ever part of the actual contract or sales process though.
See attached for the entirely different FSD sold to pre/post 3/19 buyers:
Pre-3/19 was sold L4 as described here during purchase:
Post 3/19 they were promised instead a specific list of features, and never guaranteed them higher than L2.... initially this list was the specific things that used to be in EAP-- plus a future promise of stoplight/stop sign recognition, and city streets (what is currently called FSDBeta). After the stoplight stuff was released they changed it to just move that into the delivered features list.
See below for both versions of that during the sales process:
Of course they missed the "by end of year" promises both in 2019 and 2020.... they have since changed it to just say "coming soon" for city streets as shown below- note here I also highlight where they make clear the post 3/19 one only PROMISES L2.
uujjj2
Member
Biden is not actually anti-Tesla and Elon Musk is not actually anti-Biden. But both men have an interest in making it appear that way. Let me explain.
For Biden, he must win Michigan. And it's not just electorally essential; it's his legacy. Legacy is a big deal to presidents, and for Biden his legacy is tied to global warming, and even more so electric cars. Biden has been tied to electric cars since his days with the ATVM loan program. To make mass adoption of EVs successful, he needs the UAW and the Detroit automakers to buy in. Tesla is not popular with Detroit, so if pretending to dislike Tesla helps get them on board, well so be it.
For Elon Musk, he's a much less political guy than people seem to think. Five years ago people thought he was some staunch liberal. Now people think he's a Trump supporter. He's never been either. Elon's goal, like Biden, is mass adoption of EVs and renewables. To get mass adoption of EVs, he has to sell EVs to Trump supporters in the sticks not just rich California tree huggers. Elon made his fortune off California tree huggers, but if pretending to dislike them helps Tesla sell EVs in the sticks, well so be it.
(This extends internationally too. Elon goes to China and tells them that China is awesome and America is entitled and complacent. Then he comes back to America and wraps himself in the American flag.)
So there's a kabuki theater going on here between two electric car promoters. We Tesla fans need to calm down about this Missy Cummins thing, and about the White House EV summit, and about Elon donating money to pro-oil politicians. This is all a show. Don't get sucked in.
For Biden, he must win Michigan. And it's not just electorally essential; it's his legacy. Legacy is a big deal to presidents, and for Biden his legacy is tied to global warming, and even more so electric cars. Biden has been tied to electric cars since his days with the ATVM loan program. To make mass adoption of EVs successful, he needs the UAW and the Detroit automakers to buy in. Tesla is not popular with Detroit, so if pretending to dislike Tesla helps get them on board, well so be it.
For Elon Musk, he's a much less political guy than people seem to think. Five years ago people thought he was some staunch liberal. Now people think he's a Trump supporter. He's never been either. Elon's goal, like Biden, is mass adoption of EVs and renewables. To get mass adoption of EVs, he has to sell EVs to Trump supporters in the sticks not just rich California tree huggers. Elon made his fortune off California tree huggers, but if pretending to dislike them helps Tesla sell EVs in the sticks, well so be it.
(This extends internationally too. Elon goes to China and tells them that China is awesome and America is entitled and complacent. Then he comes back to America and wraps himself in the American flag.)
So there's a kabuki theater going on here between two electric car promoters. We Tesla fans need to calm down about this Missy Cummins thing, and about the White House EV summit, and about Elon donating money to pro-oil politicians. This is all a show. Don't get sucked in.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
"What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018."
Thanks, that was a typo. Once that's up and running we're at 1/25th of the TWh milestone
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
My impression is that one of Tesla's goals is to smooth the results and reduce earnings surprises. Even though they guided for deliveries from the two newest factories to not hit the streets until Q1, I think they might want to use the strong results of Q4 to smooth the numbers by taking some of the production ramp "hit" to Q1 numbers in Q4. This would have the added advantage of appearing early with production ramp-up. I would look for steady strong growth rather than complete blow-outs.
He is on fire. It was great to see Sandy take a pot shot at that idiot Montana Skeptic (Lawrence Fossi) at the endSandy rants so I don't have to
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yup we discussed that as a solution for the issue a while ago.
Effective cost per cell is higher though is the downside compared to single larger roller... so ideally they eventually do find a way to get the larger ones to work well.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Brothers Johnson?
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Elon has too many other important things to focus on instead of wasting time answering these wall street clowns.
I live here. It is insane the amount of Tesla's here in Santa Barbara and Los Angeles, well everywhere! Practically everyone in my family and most of my friends have Model 3's.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
What I love about this forum is that people change my mind more than anywhere else on the internet. Thanks @Artful Dodger.
Also after listening to the call again I'm very impressed with ZK's communication skills. He crushes Elon in this area. Many maintain a facade of professionalism and articulateness to feign competence. Zach has all three.
Huh. Could be. Regardless (irregardless? No! shudder!), Missy has a lot of folks opposing her appointment. Over 15,000 signatories on the petition to review her appointment. I did sign, though I haven’t been opining, even via the thumbs up/down, here about her merits.
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powertoold
Active Member
No, no, and no. Why are we beating this dead horse.
Didn’t see this posted yet. Apparently Pete Buttigieg was quoted as asking Elon to call him if he has any concerns about the appointment of Missy Cummings - Buttigieg invites Elon Musk to chat after he claims NHTSA adviser pick is biased against Tesla. I'm of 2 minds here. First, this is mostly political - trying to douse the flames coming from a growing fire. And second, I like that there is heat around this. Maybe it will put a check on decisions made w/o strong facts. I doubt it will cause a change in direction in appointment though.
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