Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

I suspect that the call was set up for Wed. on pupose. Thursday - digestion day. Friday - lift off.

So, um, today then was just a test firing of the rocket engines prior to launch?



Yeah, I guess I'm jiggy with that.

 

[Drezil]

Yeah, some may have been fooled into sellin. But, there were two things:

1. tepid volume in the After-hrs session meant little conviction by the shortzes
2. fake German enviro "do-over" posted thru some rando's twitter
   1. points at a some google drive manifesto document
   2. German State governments have their own websites
   3. they don't need Google to disseminate "Press Releases"

c.f. Gullibulls

Cheers!

Edit: A bit late (as others have also expanded ont this), but i hope still relevant to get the greater context of the german legal system & what this could imply if the government officials wouldn't have done this. My last post on this topic to not clutter up things more.

for 2: it was the pdf-version that got posted by GF4Tesla on twitter.
In the PDF you can even click the link for the governmental website & look for the Press release there: Online-Konsultation wird wiederholt
So this is the real thing. They "redo" the consultation period because in NRW a court ruled that 1 weeks notice is too little & they do it again to give noone (like .. youknowwho) a reason to sue the final permit (with immidiate implication like closing until the courts rule - which can take years!).
Yes, it is bad.

Why this? Because there were new rules for the consultation that were passed into law in May 2020 due to covid. Otherwise that consultation would have to have taken place IN PRESENCE and maybe be postponed until "after covid" ..
So lawmakers made a new law in 5/2020, another county acted according to their interpretation, now a court ruled that this was "not good enough" and before this happens again they redo the last consultation-period as a precaution... and yes. It is that bad in germany. With everything.

I don't know how your system works. In Germany it is: lawmakers pass laws. Local governments INTERPRET these laws into actual rules they enforce (example: people shoud get *appropiate* housing as social security - but what *appropiate* is is undefined - because living expenses can vary HARD from town to town). If you read the interpretation different than the local government you can sue them (on your own cost) to get those things corrected.
So they always look onto other court-rulings, similar cases etc. in their interpretation.
Additionally we have 2 kinds of laws. Criminal law (which has to follow the law to the letter in court) and everything else (which has to follow "the spirit of the law" in court)...

 

[SageBrush]

what is it?

BYD. My quasi-relevant to this thread connection is that we are all in part enjoying a rising tide, in this case EVs and in a more general sense, the world's evolving transition to clean economies. We are on the right side of history and science. The TSLAQ folks are losing their shirts not so much because their best value analyses were wrong but because they are mired in climate denial and cannot see the tailwinds that pushes Tesla through every storm.

 

[woodisgood]

Yes it is: Ratings – New Street Research

View attachment 724013

Gotcha. Pierre was being a funny guy and I guess three shots of espresso were not enough to wake up my brain today.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone here or elsewhere have updated projections for 4Q revenue/earnings? I wanna see some PE calcutions @ $900. Let's goooooooo!!!

2021Q4 EBITA >$14.0B
2022Q1 Revenue >$75.0B

 

[JusRelax]

BYD. My quasi-relevant to this thread connection is that we are all in part enjoying a rising tide, in this case EVs and in a more general sense, the world's evolving transition to clean economies. We are on the right side of history and science. The TSLAQ folks are losing their shirts not so much because their best value analyses were wrong but because they are mired in climate denial and cannot see the tailwinds that pushes Tesla through every storm.

While I agree with you that there is an EV wave, @Singuy posted a chart comparing Oct 19th closing price to 52-wk high for a number of stocks, including multiple EV stocks. Tesla, along with BYD, has been noticeably outperforming those stocks. Tesla is not just riding a wave; IMO both Tesla and BYD are stellar performers within the same industry.

I believe Tesla created the wave; I don't know enough about BYD to know whether they created or are just riding the EV wave better than the other EV manufacturers.

 

[Stretch2727]

Ironic! VWAG is making Seats, while TSLA is selling chairs...

Cheers!

FYI. The reference was to Seat, which is a Spanish brand which VW bought several years ago. Sold throughout EU but more popular in Spain and southern EU countries. It is pronounced with 2 syllables.

SEAT - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Singuy]

While I agree with you that there is an EV wave, @Singuy posted a chart comparing Oct 19th closing price to 52-wk high for a number of stocks, including multiple EV stocks. Tesla, along with BYD, has been noticeably outperforming those stocks. Tesla is not just riding a wave; IMO both Tesla and BYD are stellar performers within the same industry.

I believe Tesla created the wave; I don't know enough about BYD to know whether they created or are just riding the EV wave better than the other EV manufacturers.

Yup BYD is legit, all the other companies just wanted to ride the TESLA wave(not the EV wave) to get themselves some frothy valuations so they can cash out.

 

[Unpilot]

So basically we got all the excitement out of the way in the first 45 minutes.
No we sit and watch paint dry?

 

[jhm]

So how are the bears spinning Q3 numbers?

 

[Iain]

So how are the bears spinning Q3 numbers?

Gordo was not enthusiastic about Q3..... (although he’s not actually a bear, if he was he would be living in a tent by now)

 

[SageBrush]

While I agree with you that there is an EV wave, @Singuy posted a chart comparing Oct 19th closing price to 52-wk high for a number of stocks, including multiple EV stocks. Tesla, along with BYD, has been noticeably outperforming those stocks. Tesla is not just riding a wave; IMO both Tesla and BYD are stellar performers within the same industry.

I believe Tesla created the wave; I don't know enough about BYD to know whether they created or are just riding the EV wave better than the other EV manufacturers.

100% agree

I've mostly landed on an EV future dominated by Tesla and the Chinese; and perhaps VW/SAIC. My crystal ball is fuzzy when it comes to which Chinese manufacturers will be ascendant, mostly because I don't have good quality information. And as much as I love and appreciate Tesla innovation, the Chinese ability to manufacture cheaply and to adapt quickly to change is mighty impressive. They are also becoming independent software and design houses in their own right.

 

[Bouboule]

Hey, good news, even Bill Gates is predicting Tesla will 8x or 10x

Bill Gates says climate tech will produce 8 to 10 Teslas, a Google, an Amazon and a Microsoft

Bill Gates expects climate investing to produce big returns for those who can stomach the risk while making the right early bets.

www.cnbc.com

 

[woodisgood]

Hey, good news, even Bill Gates is predicting Tesla will 8x or 10x

Bill Gates says climate tech will produce 8 to 10 Teslas, a Google, an Amazon and a Microsoft

Bill Gates expects climate investing to produce big returns for those who can stomach the risk while making the right early bets.

www.cnbc.com

No no he said there will be 8-10 Teslas in space, which seems pretty conservative since there’s already a Roadster out there.

 

[Knightshade]

So how are the bears spinning Q3 numbers?

Q, regarding the numbers, are mostly on about accounting fraud... Also stock pumping so that Elon can sell shares (including theories he pumps it himself by buying calls for force gamma squeezes), also tossing in a Form 4 of Tesla CAO selling shares 2 days before the earnings call, and also some "this is the peak all downhill now" stuff.

Nothing really new.

 

[elasalle]

Taking 850K deliveries for 2021, can Tesla grow at 50% clip even with GF Berlin delays?

2022 would need 1275K deliveries for 50% growth.

Fremont 3/Y capacity at 500K
S/X at 100K
Shanghai at > 450K

together it is 950K already.

If Austin ramp goes smoothly and no "unknown unknowns" beyond Q1, and Fremont also expands ... seems it is achievable?

Germany can keep buying China made cars and protect the bats and all.

 

[Singuy]

So how are the bears spinning Q3 numbers?

I had to get through GJ's vomit so you don't have to.

1. Tesla is suppose to be more than an auto company but look at the 0% gross margins on energy
2. Market share is falling in China and in EU
3. CFO said margins are going to fall
4. Lots of competition coming next year and Tesla has no new models
5. EPS is a miss because the "whisper numbers" is suppose to be 2 dollars (perhaps he is citing Rob Mauer here lol).
6. They only produced 40k more cars this Q vs last while all the other automakers shipped millions. They are not growing fast enough
7. CNBS host joins in and said "no one cares, it's a cult stock with cult customers, they value this as amazon in 1996".
8. GJ said we don't see this as the next amazon but the next AOL.

Now I'm going to take a shower.

 

[Stretch2727]

GLJ nonsense in the spoiler, don't click if he triggers you

Spoiler: Tesla isn't Amazon, it's AOL - GLJ Research

Yeah he triggers me. When he compares Tesla unit volumes to Toyota or VW.

In my mind it is pretty well established EV's are the only cars of the future. Everything else has a smaller finite profit value as they are headed to zero.

The only comparison I want to see is EV to EV by manufacturer. This is really all that matters at this point.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So basically we got all the excitement out of the way in the first 45 minutes.
No we sit and watch paint dry?

Same thing we do every day, Pinky...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Taking 850K deliveries for 2021, can Tesla grow at 50% clip even with GF Berlin delays?

2022 would need 1275K deliveries for 50% growth.

Fremont 3/Y capacity at 500K
S/X at 100K
Shanghai at > 450K

together it is 950K already.

If Austin ramp goes smoothly and no "unknown unknowns" beyond Q1, and Fremont also expands ... seems it is achievable?

Germany can keep buying China made cars and protect the bats and all.

Initial Models Y produced at Giga Berlin will essentially be knock-down kits from China anyway. We found out on the 3Q Conf. call that Tesla has spare assembly capacity, so this delay should not affect Q1 production at all.

If I were running Tesla GMBH, I'd take out a big damn ad in the Berliner Zeitgeist explaining how 12,000 paycheques for 5,000 Euro each will NOT be spent in your town this month, because they have RIGHTS!