Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

The old buy the rumor and buy the news. I like it.

 

[RobDickinson]

Tesla are like a crack addict with cells.

For sure 10GWh isnt big numbers for tesla but its enough for 150,000 more SR cars..

 

[Curt Renz]

Highly rated Openheimer analyst Colin Rush has a BUY rating on TSLA and $1080 price target: TipRanks - Colin Rusch

Yahoo Finance - hour ago:

 

[Words of HABIT]

Yahoo Finance has now shown their Consensus EPS for Tesla Q4 2021 at $1.80 EPS,or $0.06 less than actual Q3 of $1.86. They fail to understand the exponential growth story that is Tesla. The analysts are consistently and embarrassingly wrong on Tesla. We here at TMC bank on it and profit.

 

[Ogre]

Yahoo Finance has now shown their Consensus EPS for Tesla Q4 2021 at $1.80 EPS,or $0.06 less than actual Q3 of $1.86. They fail to understand the exponential growth story that is Tesla. The analysts are consistently and embarrassingly wrong on Tesla. We here at TMC bank on it and profit.

Seems to me like next quarter won’t be a huge growth quarter, but Q1 2022 will be monstrous as Berlin and Texas start deliveries. In fact… all of 2022 will be pretty insane with the ramp up of those dual money machines. And presumably 2023 as the Cybertruck production hits it’s stride.

It’s unlikely profits will dip though, I just think the 2022 quarters are going to be much more impressive.

 

[ZsoZso]

Highly rated Openheimer analyst Colin Rush has a BUY rating on TSLA and $1080 price target: TipRanks - Colin Rusch

Yahoo Finance - hour ago:

With all these price target upgrades from various analysts landing in the $900-$1100 range, I am beginning to wonder:
When did it become customary for analysts to make 1-month targets ? I thought it used to be 12-months...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

With all these price target upgrades from various analysts landing in the $900-$1100 range, I am beginning to wonder:
When did it become customary for analysts to make 1-month targets ? I thought it used to be 12-months...

Wall St finally had an "OH S**T moment" when they saw the Margin % Tesla makes on each car...They are now scrambling to make recommendations to buy...its not too late... i would not be surprised to see it run to $1100 - $1200 by Jan. JMHO

 

[heltok]

So how are the bears spinning Q3 numbers?

I have been following some bears over the years. What is consistent with them is that they believe they have always been right, which seems strange given that Tesla is not bankrupt yet, Elon is not in jail etc. Anyday now I guess.

Before they used to say that Tesla loses money on every sold car and will never make a profit. Then they said Tesla only made money because of tax credits but would never make profit without it. Now they are saying that the only reason Tesla makes profit is because of the FSD fraud. As FSD will never happen, Tesla will have to pay back customers and thus go bankrupt. I wonder what they will say when FSD has been delivered. I guess that NHTSA will cancel FSD and Tesla will go bankrupt. Because one thing will remain true, the bears have always been right.

They will probably always believe that compeition is coming, that Teslas have low build quality, that Elon lies about everything, that Autopilot is inferior to competition, that Tesla has squeezed out that final demand this quarter by some clever one time shenanigans and that Tesla is extremely overvalued at current valuation.

Imo what is sad to see is that previously they believed that Tesla was overvalued at $30B, now they believe that Tesla is overvalued at $900B and should have a fair value of say $100-200B. But they fail to see that their extremely overvalued at $30B estimation model must have been based on a flawed mental model.

 

[SarahsDad]

Gene Munster on Bloomberg with great interview. "In 3 years Tesla will have Apple-like gross margins"

I think Gene is a pretty cerebral and conservative guy. I've seen him report on Apple and Tesla for years.

So when Gene predicts a $2,500 SP, THAT is bullish.

Tesla Makes it Look Easy | Deepwater

Tesla’s September quarter results reveal a company that is defying the odds around demand and profitability. Deliveries were up 73% while the top five automakers were down 27%. Gross margin ex-credit was a record 28.8%, up from 25.8% in June. It’s easy to write about the outperformance, it’s...

loupfunds.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think Gene is a pretty cerebral and conservative guy. I've seen him report on Apple and Tesla for years.

So when Gene predicts a $2,500 SP, THAT is bullish.

Tesla Makes it Look Easy | Deepwater

Tesla’s September quarter results reveal a company that is defying the odds around demand and profitability. Deliveries were up 73% while the top five automakers were down 27%. Gross margin ex-credit was a record 28.8%, up from 25.8% in June. It’s easy to write about the outperformance, it’s...

loupfunds.com

In 3 years? They don't have Apple like margins now??

 

[Singuy]

In 3 years? They don't have Apple like margins now??

Apple's operating margins are around 26% and gross margins at 43.3% so they don't.

 

[MikeC]

I have been following some bears over the years. What is consistent with them is that they believe they have always been right, which seems strange given that Tesla is not bankrupt yet, Elon is not in jail etc. Anyday now I guess.

Before they used to say that Tesla loses money on every sold car and will never make a profit. Then they said Tesla only made money because of tax credits but would never make profit without it. Now they are saying that the only reason Tesla makes profit is because of the FSD fraud. As FSD will never happen, Tesla will have to pay back customers and thus go bankrupt. I wonder what they will say when FSD has been delivered. I guess that NHTSA will cancel FSD and Tesla will go bankrupt. Because one thing will remain true, the bears have always been right.

They will probably always believe that compeition is coming, that Teslas have low build quality, that Elon lies about everything, that Autopilot is inferior to competition, that Tesla has squeezed out that final demand this quarter by some clever one time shenanigans and that Tesla is extremely overvalued at current valuation.

Imo what is sad to see is that previously they believed that Tesla was overvalued at $30B, now they believe that Tesla is overvalued at $900B and should have a fair value of say $100-200B. But they fail to see that their extremely overvalued at $30B estimation model must have been based on a flawed mental model.

People can believe anything if their identity and social network is at stake. See cults, flat earthers, conspiracy theorists, religion, politics, etc. The nice thing about the stock market is it tells you who was actually right.

Can you imagine how damaging to the ego it must be to not only have been wrong on the stock of the last decade but intensely and repeatedly so every day over a period of years? And to have your bank account reflect that. While the people you condescendingly derided for years for being unsophisticated investors are now wondering what to do with all their money and laughing at you. They don’t really have any other options psychologically but to keep digging themselves in deeper.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Apple's operating margins are around 26% and gross margins at 43.3% so they don't.

'Apple like' not exact but it's only a matter of time

 

[MP3Mike]

Who says the market doesn't have a sense of humor? Closing price for AH trading: $888.88

 

[jhm]

I have been following some bears over the years. What is consistent with them is that they believe they have always been right, which seems strange given that Tesla is not bankrupt yet, Elon is not in jail etc. Anyday now I guess.

Before they used to say that Tesla loses money on every sold car and will never make a profit. Then they said Tesla only made money because of tax credits but would never make profit without it. Now they are saying that the only reason Tesla makes profit is because of the FSD fraud. As FSD will never happen, Tesla will have to pay back customers and thus go bankrupt. I wonder what they will say when FSD has been delivered. I guess that NHTSA will cancel FSD and Tesla will go bankrupt. Because one thing will remain true, the bears have always been right.

They will probably always believe that compeition is coming, that Teslas have low build quality, that Elon lies about everything, that Autopilot is inferior to competition, that Tesla has squeezed out that final demand this quarter by some clever one time shenanigans and that Tesla is extremely overvalued at current valuation.

Imo what is sad to see is that previously they believed that Tesla was overvalued at $30B, now they believe that Tesla is overvalued at $900B and should have a fair value of say $100-200B. But they fail to see that their extremely overvalued at $30B estimation model must have been based on a flawed mental model.

So you're saying TSLAQ is basically a doomsday cult still waiting for their apocalyptic visions to come true despite all evidence to the contrary.

 

[Unpilot]

Who says the market doesn't have a sense of humor? Closing price for AH trading: $888.88

View attachment 724119

Something about that number...and a calculator....hmm...what was it...?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So you're saying TSLAQ is basically a doomsday cult still waiting for their apocalyptic visions to come true despite all evidence to the contrary.

Essentially.....

 

[UCF3]

Tesla Makes it Look Easy | Deepwater

Tesla’s September quarter results reveal a company that is defying the odds around demand and profitability. Deliveries were up 73% while the top five automakers were down 27%. Gross margin ex-credit was a record 28.8%, up from 25.8% in June. It’s easy to write about the outperformance, it’s...

loupfunds.com

I might be wrong but I think this line is incorrect in the Loup note: “Cybertruck is still on track for initial deliveries late in 2021 and volume in 2022.”

Didn’t the dates get pushed back?

 

[Cattledog]

I might be wrong but I think this line is incorrect in the Loup note: “Cybertruck is still on track for initial deliveries late in 2021 and volume in 2022.”

Didn’t the dates get pushed back?

Yes, off by 9-12 months.

 

[22522]

what is it?

I might be wrong but I think this line is incorrect in the Loup note: “Cybertruck is still on track for initial deliveries late in 2021 and volume in 2022.”

Didn’t the dates get pushed back?

Yes. Berlin and Austin will produce vehicles this year, but no deliveries until proven quality.

Cyber truck was not what they were talking about. It will be after as I understand.