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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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One thing I will give to Legacy auto is that they do know how to manufacture at volume production. I don't remember hearing stories of the ID4 or the Mach-E produced at a rate of like 10 cars for the month (minus pre production runs). Here we see the Mach-E started production in Oct and made over 700 cars, and jumped straight to over 2k the second month, way ahead of Rivian or what Tesla managed (Tesla only made 220 Model 3s in the first 2.5 months of production)

I think the difference here is that legacy is not trying to improve their production process, so they aren't changing most things. They have far fewer unknowns. Tesla improves the manufacturing process with every new build. If legacy was trying to improve their process, then they would likely have the same type of slow startup.
 
I think what Tesla did was to lay the ground work to reduce costs when they produce at scale through automation & thru vertical integration. That was hard.

If these legacy dinosaurs can pump out a million and make profit just on one model, that is what I call volume production.

For crying out loud, these guys are buying cells and batteries and motors and inverters from Asian companies and slapping them in. Let them make their own cells & batteries and motors at scale, and ONLY then that is called producing cars at scale. Otherwise it is assembling at scale.
 
I think the difference here is that legacy is not trying to improve their production process, so they aren't changing most things. They have far fewer unknowns. Tesla improves the manufacturing process with every new build. If legacy was trying to improve their process, then they would likely have the same type of slow startup.
Well Tesla went from a crappy process to a competitive process and now have surpassed legacy's process. Crappy to competitive took them a year and almost the company tho.
 
" . . . scale out of a position over a period of time." What?

How is this not selling shares?

Call me confused. Not trying to be antagonistic, but just curious: Have you ever sat down and looked at what your account balance would have been had you NEVER "scaled out of a position" in TSLA?

I posit it would be an order of magnitude larger, no?

Thanks for any insights.
Scaling out is a phrase that was (and probably still is) used to describe reducing a position gradually. Most professionals know that one is never going to sell an entire position at the top, so achieving an acceptable, near-the-top return by averaging through time seems to work the best. In my case now, I sold 100 shares out of my 3,000 shares to buy my wife a new S LR. I guess I used the wrong descriptor. As I said earlier, I believe we are in the second inning of Tesla's growth. There were several reasons why I sold instead of using cash, which I'm not going into other than to say, there are tax considerations, creating more cash in my non-retirement account, age and other issues. I, in no way, think Tesla is anywhere near the top of the S-curve.

Have you not read my numerous posts about my investing background? In the 54 years that I have been in the market, I have learned many valuable lessons. One of them is: "Don't look back"

Best of luck.
 
I am sure it will. Is this a paint job from Berlin? Plenty of chrome on this piece. Do explain.
This is Elon's S where he was sorting the colors to see what Berlin would get.

 
It seems to me we might be missing a fundamental change in how auto rental can be managed.

When someone has made a Model 3 driver profile and presumably a Hertz profile in the same app, that someone has zero time to adjust anything. It becomes just like their own car. Logically having the Tesla account can also allow Supercharger use. With minimal integration, the same account can auto debit for EZ Pass, SunPass etc in the US.

For Europe the country-specific highway permits are yielding to the Eurvignette for heavy goods vehicles but, given EU wide individual road use, something quite similar could be incorporated to the Hertz-Tesla system. That is much more likely if, say, Sixt were to join the system.Tesla already has licenses to sell energy is some locations and countries. thus,

I think it is highly probable that the preexisting autobidder and Supercharging technologies will be incorporated into the Tesla rental system support.

For Hertz there can be very large cost savings by eliminating most checkin-checkout processes, through use of the Tesla profile, (e.g. no keys!) OTA monitoring can easily incorporate numerous service call/support problems (again, no keys thus eliminating those very expensive key delivery issues, and minimizing rental service visits.

These things will take some time to properly understand, plus quantify the resultant savings.

Then there are the optional items that can be included in the profile and/or included for specific trips, including games, movies, etc.

Anyone who has followed the career of Mark Fields knows about his accomplishments at Mazda and Ford Europe. He had less stellar results when faced with Dearbornitis (a famously dystopic communicable disease, a close relation to another one, Ketteringitis). Personally I am convinced the old Mark Fields is back, and this order is the first proof.

Within a few weeks we may have enough data to begin to value these things. If this is really as important as I think it is there will be a steady stream of hints during the next month or two. The first big one might be related to charging infrastructure, closely followed by evolution of the customer interfaces. Probably not likely to be disclosed will be revisions in insurance options for Tesla rental at Hertz with the app getting more disclosure also.
i’m a bit surprised no one else seems to be picking up on this nascent epiphany.
this could be a variation on the
“why buy a car you don’t use 95%+ of the time”
an experiment of, “does this variation work of vehicles use”

Your “TeslaHertz” card has your profile, open any door of any yellow car and go,
need a truck? it’s there.
model Y, with car seats, it’s there.
need any type vehicle, tap the app, your profile is there, with appropriate permissions.
 
Man if I get this right, I'm going to pat myself on the back all next week -

Cup and handle formation being formed, so retest of 1,090 by Thursday to form the cup followed by retracement to 1,050 to form the handle.......then infrastructure deal announcement on Friday or over the weekend which coincides with the breakout next week to 1200 (not saying 1200 necessarily by end of next week but a strong move towards it)

Man, if you get this right, it is not a cup with handle.
CwH tend to be long duration. The guy that wrote the book said 7 wks min. Longer patterns are stronger.
 
Man if I get this right, I'm going to pat myself on the back all next week -

Cup and handle formation being formed, so retest of 1,090 by Thursday to form the cup followed by retracement to 1,050 to form the handle.......then infrastructure deal announcement on Friday or over the weekend which coincides with the breakout next week to 1200 (not saying 1200 necessarily by end of next week but a strong move towards it)

$1,200 you say?
Maybe this post of mine from back in July comes to fruition. We were at $644 at the time.
10 more weeks to get there. Quoting Hertz, "Let's Go !!"

1626627346265-png.685636

 
Man, if you get this right, it is not a cup with handle.
CwH tend to be long duration. The guy that wrote the book said 7 wks min. Longer patterns are stronger.

No, cup and handles can be as short as a week. Just cause one guy says 7 weeks mins doesn't make it true.

To be clear, I'm not putting money to work with this idea of a cup and handle. Interpreting charts works just as good until it doesn't lol. But the idea that it has to be 7 weeks min is pretty silly.
 
I think the difference here is that legacy is not trying to improve their production process, so they aren't changing most things. They have far fewer unknowns. Tesla improves the manufacturing process with every new build. If legacy was trying to improve their process, then they would likely have the same type of slow startup.

What we have here is the old cliche about how you don't need to outrun a Grizzly Bear, you only need to outrun the person you are with. Legacy probably understands they can't beat Tesla, or at least understand it's unlikely. For them it's a race to hold on as long as possible or become #2/3 in the new EV world. If you aren't trying to beat the guy in the lead, you aren't likely to be overly aggressive and risk your shot at second place.