Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Yeah licking my wounds here....earlier this year I thought it wise to 'diversify' my share holdings which were all in Tesla (since 2014)

So I pulled out $35k from Tesla and invested in Cathie and Tasha at ARK.

Tesla up nearly 50% and ARK down 25% or something - painful

I should have just HODLed as I've done with Tesla so far. Damnit....

Yup diversified in September 2020 down to 70% Tesla, but approaching 90% again naturally

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I think the problem with the unions is the same as the problem with the managers (and most stock analysts). They simply cannot image or comprehend or appreciate how fast the change to EVs will be.

Diess should show this video to everyone in his company.

Al Gore gets it:

But he only mentions Ford and not Tesla. ***sigh***

Everybody is following Ford..... Ha Ha

 

[Maarten]

almost 3% premarket...

FTFY: almost more than 3% premarket...

 

[NicoV]

Maybe because Hertz now say their order could go to 200K, according to a popular website covering EV’s.

FTFY: more than almost 3% premarket...

 

[WarpedOne]

ATH in premarket: 1.072,94

It goes to 11 ... hundred

 

[RobStark]

With the new ev tax credit as it stands, Rivian's prices are above the limits. 55k sedan, 69k suv, 74k truck.
Rivian would do better if it doesn't pass and we keep existing ev credit of 200k cars, no price limit.

Rivian pickup starts at $67.5k and SUV at $70k.

I am sure Rivian can delete some software features as standard,reduce the price of the SUV $1,001 and charge more for subscription software.

 

[jbcarioca]

I see where you're coming from but the Supreme Court already ruled on this in Eisner v. Macomber, 252 U.S. 189 (1920) and related cases.

This need not be belabored here. The US Supreme Court has overruled it’s own precedents infrequently, but periodically. There is quite high probability they might do that again within the next few weeks on another issue.
Definitions do change as do attitudes of appropriate taxes. There are numerous long existing Federal taxes that are not considered relevant to the Macomber precedent. Most of those depend on varying interpretations of the Interstate Commerce powers.

Challenges to several State laws prohibiting direct sale of automobiles are in part based on similar arguments. Almost all of us might support those challenges.

In this Supreme Court numerous decisions have already overturn long standing precedent. One of those was Citizens United. It is unlikely that this Supreme Court would overturn precedent to support any law proposed by this US government. That has even extended to long standing voting rights issues. A court that considers corporations to be entitled to rights previously limited to human beings, overturning precedent dating to 1789 and before, will certainly not do so to confirm ability to tax extremely wealthy people.

Thus this debate is moot, anyway.

 

[LST]

ATH in premarket: 1.072,94

It goes to 11 ... hundred

no we saw 1094.something if I remember correctly intraday one or teo days ago…

 

[nativewolf]

@nativewolf I think you raise an important uncertainty. I would love to hear your thoughts and those of others on Tony Seba's Clean Energy U Curve, presented at the start of last year, which suggests that overbuilding solar will help with the limited supply of batteries.

I think Tony's work and the Rethink team work is very interesting. The idea being that we implement so much solar that the edge production 6-8am and 5-8pm would still supply grid with enough power. This still leaves you with a huge hole of 10 hours. Wind helps overcome this gap, especially wind in the midwest, OK KS IA MN etc. Then as battery production catches up in the next decade the excess energy opens up all sorts of manufacturing opportunities, mine digital currency, smelt ores, crack chemical chains, etc etc.

So I like it. If you like that take a look at the his site, lots of papers.

Short term...battery constraint is more concerning than ever. Especially given that the LG pouch battery seem to have fundamental design issues for cars, maybe they could be allocated to stationery products? Tesla seems pretty committed to the idea that pouch is a bad format. Since so much of the planned capacity is in pouch designs many early EVs will turn out to have short lives. Not sure of who else is using cells like Tesla, most seem to be pouch.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

You are right,, but we also need to remember, "moats are lame"...

A present Tesla is offering long term contracts for battery supplies, which in turn de-risks a lot of investments for companies like CATL, LG, and Panasonic.

Then there is this quote from Elon on battery Day which I referenced earlier:-

My assumption is Tesla will still have contracts with CATL and LG in China in 2030, and probably still with Panasonic at GF Nevada.

But it is likely that for vehicle manufacture in the US, Europe and perhaps elsewhere, the majority of the cells used will be produced in house.

It is also likely that BYD, CATL, and Panasonic will be making cells for many other car makers in 2030...

I don't think moats are needed, what is need is 50% annual compound growth, and continuing rapid innovation... There is no need to put anyone out of business, but equally no need to slow down to keep them in business.

What's going to happen in 2040..... When there's enough batteries?

Are CATL, Panasonic and LG going to be the new Toyota, Ford and GM failing to shift their business models because they have manufacturing facilities and supply chains designed for producing batteries? Because their shareholders, board members and executives demand near term profits? 20 years out, can we already predict they will fail to transition to recycling because, well, human nature?

 

[H Mak]

Well, in that case how about Trevor Milton?
I hear he’s available

Not for long maybe...

Former Nikola Corporation CEO Trevor Milton Charged In Securities Fraud Scheme​

Former Executive Chairman and CEO of Nikola Corporation is Alleged to Have Made False and Misleading Statements to Retail Investors to Drive Investor Demand in Nikola Stock​

 

[ZachF]

Rivian pickup starts at $67.5k and SUV at $70k.

I am sure Rivian can delete some software features as standard,reduce the price of the SUV $1,001 and charge more for subscription software.

It is pretty egregious when you think about it that established union ICE manufacturers will get kingly $9000 sums for lazily attaching a plug and a $800 battery to a V8, while EV startups who don’t have the economies of scale yet are told to pound sand…

 

[Prunesquallor]

Not for long maybe...

Former Nikola Corporation CEO Trevor Milton Charged In Securities Fraud Scheme​

Former Executive Chairman and CEO of Nikola Corporation is Alleged to Have Made False and Misleading Statements to Retail Investors to Drive Investor Demand in Nikola Stock​

 

[MC3OZ]

What's going to happen in 2040..... When there's enough batteries?

Are CATL, Panasonic and LG going to be the new Toyota, Ford and GM failing to shift their business models because they have manufacturing facilities and supply chains designed for producing batteries? Because their shareholders, board members and executives demand near term profits? 20 years out, can we already predict they will fail to transition to recycling because, well, human nature?

We can predict that they will transition to recycling becuase it is cheaper than mining and the recovered materials are used in the current process, no new equipment needed as far as I know.

 

[SageBrush]

Moats are lame, speed of EV adoption is all that matters.

I appreciate the sentiment, and it probably reflects a practical reality. Probably
But the real point is to remove ICE now. The distinction between us is an acknowledgement of opportunity cost.

 

[jkirkwood001]

To be fair this is about wealth, not income. Globally there are countless taxes on wealth, including unrealized gains. Those also exist, IIRC, in every US State and Territory. Most fo them are real property taxes (that one is, I think, ubiquitous). There are also other forms of indirect wealth taxes including various types of sales taxes, property transfer taxes and so on.

That some of us seem to view a direct tax on unrealized gains as an affront to democracies not surprising, but it is disappointing. Bluntly, I am not thrilled about the idea, it would cost me an inconvenient sum. That may well be the point. What to do with wealthy people who have structured their lives to avoid undesired taxation? Around the world there are many solutions.

Regardless of my personal aversion, such a levy is obviously legal and can be done. Nobody will change their lives if they pay a similar levy to that proposed for corporations that avoid all taxation currently. Bizarrely almost everyone who falls likely in the bullseye do not now pay any AMT, precisely because of having minimal 'income'.

Until those who are in this category are paying a similar total percentage tax burden equal to any random member fo support staff, there is every reason for government to exact a little bit of wealth tax.

Elon Musk will not alter his stellar performance if he must pay some tax. Neither will Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates or Warren Buffet. Like it or not their wealth is a reflection of their accomplishments, not the motivation for them to excel.

Dispprove if you like, but not on the basis of political posturing. That is rather disingenuous.

Wow, you made that point so much more diplomatically and respectfully than I was going to, @jbcarioca. Well done. Thanks for keeping the forum intelligent and unselfish. Your comments are always insightful.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Yeah licking my wounds here....earlier this year I thought it wise to 'diversify' my share holdings which were all in Tesla (since 2014)

So I pulled out $35k from Tesla and invested in Cathie and Tasha at ARK.

Tesla up nearly 50% and ARK down 25% or something - painful

I should have just HODLed as I've done with Tesla so far. Damnit....

Same here.
bought some ARK before the last tech correction and I am down in all my ARK.
When I see them selling TSLA to buy more crap I am happier to see my TSLA:ARK is 95:5

 

[22522]

Hi All,

Elon's tweets mean something.

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) Tweeted:
@podcastnotes Who is best at capital allocation – government or entrepreneurs – is indeed what it comes down to.

The tricksters will conflate capital allocation with consumption.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1452823303186526210

What the second part of that tweet means is that taxing companies that are leading the fight against global warming, in a real sense by delivering product, to give money to your political supporters to green wash their products is not a reallocation of capital. It is moving "capital correctly applied" to "consumption." Consumption makes no real headway on solving global warming or improving the environment.

Elon is saying the hunger strikers have been tricked, as have many others.

I get the sense that European culture and social organizations claim the moral high ground when it comes to environmental issues.

Why is the Model 3 the #1 selling car in Germany, the birthplace of the automobile? [It is because the social order is not working on industries located there. Fancy dance. No real results. (This is a bit harsh, but actual motives are more effective at solving problems than pro forma compliance.)

So the green new deal is green washing the UAW and people are having hunger strikes about it - when in fact paying for the green wash will literally take money away from companies that are actually solving environmental problems.

So all the folks throwing tomatoes at senators from certain states are either, in Elon's words, "tricked" or self serving - which is rather disingenuous.

[There you go ]

 

[OrthoSurg]

General Motors Q3 Results

Don’t worry, GM will catch up by selling more Volts and Bolts. Oh wait….

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Don’t worry, GM will catch up by selling more Volts and Bolts. Oh wait….

GM’s only hope is to get into the fire extinguisher business.