Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[daniel]

GM management hated [the EV1] so much that they likely shredded all the engineering designs.

The EV1 was a wonderful car in its day. Today it would be the worst EV on the road. Two seats, poor acceleration, and short range with its NiCad batteries.

I test-drove a Volt once. I drove my Tesla Roadster to the Chevy dealership, told the salesman that I was not in the market for a new car, but was curious to see what the Volt was like. He was very pleased and let me drive it. It had nice handling and decent acceleration. I thought the two-clutch system was overly complicated, but for someone who normally drives less than 30 miles a day but wants to be able to take long road trips (Tesla's supercharger network was far more sparse back them) I could understand its appeal.

Then I took the salesman for a ride in the Roadster and showed him what an EV could really be. (And now the higher trim lines of all Tesla models can accelerate quicker than my Roadster!)

There's really only two serious EV makers. Tesla if you want the best; the Leaf if you want the most affordable. And since those two categories don't really compete with each other, Tesla has no serious competition. Unless you have irrational loyalty to one of the legacy car makers, you'll buy a Tesla or a Leaf, depending on your budget.

 

[capster]

Another PT increase!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1454903545589870596

I wonder if Tesla’s high profile has made analysts and/or their firms feel the need to track Tesla with more fidelity to the current share price and more accuracy wrt the fundamentals.

 

[2daMoon]

Okay, about this Union part of the credits that won't apply to Tesla.

I mean, c'mon, you KNOW that, should it go into effect, Elon will simply tweet something like,

"Yeah our employees have seen no advantage for them in forming a UAW chapter at Tesla, and, so our customers don't suffer because we have happy employees, Tesla will give a discount for the same amount as the Union Worker credit on every car sold that the other credits apply to."

It isn't like they can't afford it, right?

 

[Cattledog]

OT - Happy Halloween everyone. Grandkids (meaning kids at college so, you know, dog and cat) featured on this year’s pumpkins.

 

[22522]

As for the union stuff, didn't someone say Tesla could just use up all the credits before the other carmakers rolled off the couch?

 

[RobDickinson]

Throwing 10kwh of battery into some phevs would eat it quicker, thats a basic no brainer for the US auto industry.

 

[dhanson865]

Currently, Tesla has a $7500 per car price disadvantage compared to all EV makers except GM (which currently is not producing any EVs). With that disadvantage, Tesla has an 80% market share of EV's in the US. If the bill passes with the $4500 union made subsidy, Tesla will gain $3000 price advantage over their current situation. What direction should their market share go if their prices are $3000 better than they are now relative to the other US automakers (other than GM). They are ramping their US production faster in absolute numbers than all the other US OEMs. So it appears to me that Tesla will get the lion's share of the tax credit benefit.

In addition, the greater the sales of EV's in the US, the more the US OEMs will lose sales of their currently profitable ICE cars to EV's, which are unprofitable to manufacture except for Tesla. OEM's could raise their prices to make their EV's more profitable, but they will still be losing more money from lost ICE car sales than they gain from EV sales (since Tesla will be taking overall market share from them). Tesla could make the problem even harder for the US OEMs if they don't raise their prices and keep their 30% gross margins from increasing even faster than economy of scale would dictate. If they do that, then, OEM's would be in a real dilemma, that increasing EV sales for cars where there is a minimal or no profit are more than offset by loss of ICE car sales with higher profitability.

It's nice the tax credit might swing in Tesla's favor but has the price of other new cars risen at the same pace as Tesla or does this offset that?

 

[willow_hiller]

New details about non-Tesla access to the Supercharger network in the strings of the latest Tesla App update. Looks like they'll pay a slightly higher price per kWh, that can be reduced by paying a recurring membership fee:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1454993337258291204

 

[Discoducky]

That is a good finish in a tough race. Yes, every mountain bike I ride runs tubeless with Stan's, as they did a lot of work to make it exist. I use whatever valve stem (and tape) the rim manufacturer suggests.

I run a single speed on almost every trail in Dallas, if it is less than 2 hours of structured ride time, so it is pretty tame. The full suspension is for the 2.5 to 6 hours of structured ride time days, or days like today when I need safety margin. With the DH22 starting from 130 BPM you can run out from under any XC bike in bursts.

A lot like driving to get a safety score in a Tesla. Gap available when needed.

Speaking of TSLA, I think Elon has not shown all his cards. In other words, the other car companies think they are closer than they actually are.
Tesla is running at 130BPM but 170BPM 1000W sprints are on tap. That is just how it looks and feels.

Feels like there is a second gear that we have not seen. I don't hear panting. Tone is conversational... There is more in Tesla's tank.

Thinking back to your race days, Do you get some version of that feeling as well?

Elon seems to do this on occasion. The dual motor, back in the day, was hidden and he denied it existed while we were making it. But a lot of what makes the cars great is that they are based on software features that continue to be unlocked as the hardware can do so much more with improvements to the software. I love how sentry mode continues to evolve all through software innovation. Just imagine something like this coming from legacy auto??? This might seem like a 'second gear', and I can see it as that, but it would seem more appropriate to call it an 'infinite gear' as it is the gift that keeps on giving.

We see this in the BMS, inverter, motors, chip development, board development, vehicle system communication and ability to be super agile to change when needed. ECO's (Engineering Change Orders) everyday go into the vehicle. This is unheard of for vehicle engineering. Sometimes hard to believe even for legacy software. It is a form of agile development and CI/CD, but at the scale, complexity and safety critical levels of automotive implementation.

 

[PeterJA]

...Feels like there is a second gear that we have not seen. I don't hear panting. Tone is conversational... There is more in Tesla's tank...

The coming "second gear" is FSD/Tesla Network. Even well-informed fanboys like me can't fully imagine what a bombshell it will be, much sooner than most folks expect. It will destroy competition from both ICEs and other EVs, because few car buyers will want to spend tens of thousands of dollars on obsolete technology. Lucid's CEO claims FSD is a decade away, because that claim is his only hope of staying in business for another year or two. He is whistling past the graveyard.

As I have gushed before, FSD will be The Transportation Singularity.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1454736646121787392

 

[Singuy]

New details about non-Tesla access to the Supercharger network in the strings of the latest Tesla App update. Looks like they'll pay a slightly higher price per kWh, that can be reduced by paying a recurring membership fee:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1454993337258291204

haha, called it!

Here's another thought that will cause some orgasmic behavior from wall street.

Tesla Supercharging Access Subscription Service
-Free for Tesla owners
-19.99/month for non Tesla owners

2.4 billion dollars/year of free money on 10 million non tesla subscribers
Average spend of 30 dollars/month supercharging is another 3.6 billion dollars/year

Tesla will end up making MORE profit from a car build by another car manufacture over the life span of the car of 15 years than the car manufacture.

 

[22522]

Elon seems to do this on occasion. The dual motor, back in the day, was hidden and he denied it existed while we were making it. But a lot of what makes the cars great is that they are based on software features that continue to be unlocked as the hardware can do so much more with improvements to the software. I love how sentry mode continues to evolve all through software innovation. Just imagine something like this coming from legacy auto??? This might seem like a 'second gear', and I can see it as that, but it would seem more appropriate to call it an 'infinite gear' as it is the gift that keeps on giving.

We see this in the BMS, inverter, motors, chip development, board development, vehicle system communication and ability to be super agile to change when needed. ECO's (Engineering Change Orders) everyday go into the vehicle. This is unheard of for vehicle engineering. Sometimes hard to believe even for legacy software. It is a form of agile development and CI/CD, but at the scale, complexity and safety critical levels of automotive implementation.

What I hear you saying is that there is a high pace that is fairly continuous and the release rate is orchestrated. The release rate can look like a burst, but the support is actually fairly continuous.

Is this understanding correct?

 

[RobDickinson]

Pricing leak!


Price per kwh = $0.69
If the car charging is built with union labour = $4.20

 

[Cattledog]

haha, called it!

Yup, very likely to happen.

 

[dhanson865]

haha, called it!

I had the occasion a few weeks ago to make a 100 mile each way trip (200 miles) in a Nissan Leaf. Twice I sat at a L2 charger getting 5.5 KW when I could have been taking in 40KW from the 8 superchargers on the other side of the parking lot (Crosseville, TN).

I literally sat at this site for more than an hour coming and going and never saw a Tesla there. I'd have gladly paid a small surcharge to charge 6x faster.

If they put a Chademo to Tesla (or is it Tesla to Chademo?) adapter out for a reasonable price I'd buy 2 (to include one with each car as I sell them).

In my neck of the woods there are charging deserts as you leave the Metropolitan area going east or west that older Leafs have a hard time crossing but there are Superchargers and Destination chargers already in place sitting idle.

 

[Ogre]

Throwing 10kwh of battery into some phevs would eat it quicker, thats a basic no brainer for the US auto industry.

I was thinking this too, but consider for a moment the implications of this.

Every dollar of engineering a company puts into converting a car into a PHEV is a dollar of engineering they won’t spent on making actual EVs. Its pretty clear in 10 years those cars will be sitting on lots unsold. It’s likely it’ll be even sooner than that.

GM has no PHEVs right now. I don’t know how many Ford has, Jeep has a few. I’m sure they will collect plenty of money on those few models they currently sell, but I don’t think they will be releasing a bunch of new models to take advantage of this. By the time those vehicles are on the market, demand will have evaporated. The rise of Tesla is making it pretty clear to auto makers which way the winds are blowing.

Any company that spends the time/ effort making a PHEV is sacrificing their future for short term profits. It is frustrating and sad that the US government will finance this idiocy, but in the long run they are spending money on a more elaborate tombstone.

 

[Thekiwi]

Another PT increase!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1454903545589870596

I like a Tesla Price Target increase as much as anyone, but Trip Chowdry is a gigantic moronic buffoon and he doesn’t deserve any recognition whatsoever. He makes such absurd statements that I have always wondered if he was some sort of performance artist.

He has a history of incredibly stupid statements, but to keep it on topic, here is one from 2017 where he says climate change is a “complete hoax“ Chowdhry: Climate Change Is A Hoax, But Tesla Investors Shouldn't Care

Trip being bullish on Tesla is the classic stopped clock being right twice a day.

 

[Singuy]

I like a Tesla Price Target increase as much as anyone, but Trip Chowdry is a gigantic moronic buffoon and he doesn’t deserve any recognition whatsoever. He makes such absurd statements that I have always wondered if he was some sort of performance artist.

He has a history of incredibly stupid statements, but to keep it on topic, here is one from 2017 where he says climate change is a “complete hoax“ Chowdhry: Climate Change Is A Hoax, But Tesla Investors Shouldn't Care

Trip being bullish on Tesla is the classic stopped clock being right twice a day.

Probably some truth to this. The guy doesn't seem to know the price of a Plaid S looking at his report.

 

[Ogre]

I run a single speed on almost every trail in Dallas, if it is less than 2 hours of structured ride time, so it is pretty tame. The full suspension is for the 2.5 to 6 hours of structured ride time days, or days like today when I need safety margin. With the DH22 starting from 130 BPM you can run out from under any XC bike in bursts.

Huh… I figured I was the only one who rode/ trained this way. Short rides on the SS, long rides full suspension. Right on. Though in the winter time around here it’s mostly just SS all the time.

A lot like driving to get a safety score in a Tesla. Gap available when needed.

Speaking of TSLA, I think Elon has not shown all his cards. In other words, the other car companies think they are closer than they actually are.
Tesla is running at 130BPM but 170BPM 1000W sprints are on tap. That is just how it looks and feels.

Feels like there is a second gear that we have not seen. I don't hear panting. Tone is conversational... There is more in Tesla's tank.

I don’t know about a “second gear”, but Tesla is definitely pacing themselves. Their products are so far ahead of the competition they are taking profits while they can. They’ve left themselves miles of headroom to turn up the competitive heat once sales start to flag a little.

Since MTB races are the theme, we did a 2 person 24 hour race (The Coolest 24 if it matters) and sometime around midnight we‘d opened up a full lap gap on the second place team (had a bad-ass partner). When you are on the same lap, you have a big gray area about where you stand. So long as we were at least a full lap ahead, we had the luxury of being able to let off the heat a bit and more or less cruise to the finish winners.

Tesla already has a huge lead. Opening Texas and Berlin is Tesla’s version of lapping the field. Tesla had a huge lead in production before… they are now doubling that production lead in all of their major markets and reducing their per-unit costs in a single year. Huge coup.

 

[Electroman]

I like a Tesla Price Target increase as much as anyone, but Trip Chowdry is a gigantic moronic buffoon and he doesn’t deserve any recognition whatsoever. He makes such absurd statements that I have always wondered if he was some sort of performance artist.

He has a history of incredibly stupid statements, but to keep it on topic, here is one from 2017 where he says climate change is a “complete hoax“ Chowdhry: Climate Change Is A Hoax, But Tesla Investors Shouldn't Care

Trip being bullish on Tesla is the classic stopped clock being right twice a day.

Yup. He is a buffoon on the bull side, like Gordon on the bear side.