Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Paracelsus]

Ok, grab your :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455626500443709445

Thank you for the link @Paul_SF - Last sentence of the article - “this only confirms that these organizations are exclusively against Tesla, and not for improving the environment.” I often tell people we are 99% Tesla portfolio investors because if Tesla can’t make it as a company the planet probably won’t survive either. Let me reiterate my earlier comments regarding the value of Elon having over 60 Million Twitter followers. Many of those followers are also now reading the final sentence of that article and are also particularly frustrated for the avoidable delays in this process in Germany and the impact it has on the planet we all share - whether we are the beans or the bean stalks. (I must admit I am hoping Elon just rerouted the next 10 GF Shanghai delivery ships of inventory to Germany)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Looks like MM's are gonna take a stab at $1200 for a close Friday. Wouldn't be surprised if they're successful.

 

[15Peter20]

Looks like MM's are gonna take a stab at $1200 for a close Friday. Wouldn't be surprised if they're successful.

What makes you say that? Not sad if true!

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455599138326863872

 

[mrmage]

That has a cost, and that is called risk, I believe? How many percent is anyone's guess.
And that, my friends, is what we are all playing here. Hate to brake it to you. Am I wright?

Me, now I skimmed off a very small slice of profit today, intending to somewhat reduce my shared mortgage. But don't panic. You do your own thing. And carry the consequences. As do I.

A mortgage is just a loan, not unlike a margin loan. People often feel comfortable with 80% loan to value for their homes. With stocks and options, the loan to value is always less. Money is fungible, so $1000 on margin carries similar liabilities as $1000 in mortgage, unless someone is defaulting.

The key to risk is how much leverage and the underlying asset, whether mortgage, margin, or some other loan.

 

[Christine69420]

Looks like MM's are gonna take a stab at $1200 for a close Friday. Wouldn't be surprised if they're successful.

Where are you looking?

 

[Mengy]

It’s in response to this article.

Re-Discussion of the Objections to Tesla Giga Berlin Has Begun

Tesla Giga Berlin again faced delays in Germany as public discussions have to be repeated. On Tuesday, the process of re-discussion of objections to the construction of the Giga Berlin kicked off.

www.tesmanian.com

I'm beginning to wonder if Giga-Berlin should have instead been Giga-Anywhere Other Than Berlin....

 

[jkirkwood001]

I see no point in a “contract” between Hertz and Tesla, if there is no fleet discount. Hertz announced its initial order of 100,000 Teslas, perhaps more, between now and the end of next year. They are already taking deliveries and trumpeting their availability as rentals through Tom Brady ads. Hertz apparently orders Teslas in the same manner as any customer, just in greater numbers. That would also likely be the case for Avis, which gave a subtle hint in its conference call.

Elon’s tweet appears to have been an attempt to remind folks that Tesla does not offer discounts, even to Hertz, while also emphasizing production constraints. Perhaps his understated manner of tweeting was to imply he is not a stock pumper, while he receives criticism of his wealth from CNN and the World Food Program, and Congress is deliberating laws regarding climate change and EV tax credits.

I agree on vehicle cost, @Curt Renz , but different from a single retail sale, there could still be:

• Custom / bulk payment terms
• Special delivery terms / dates
• Maintenance terms
• Co-branding terms
• Custom software terms (e.g. locking out much of the interface)
• Branded / bespoke Supercharger installation terms

Did I miss anything?

 

[ZachF]

I'm beginning to wonder if Giga-Berlin should have instead been Giga-Anywhere Other Than Berlin....

A Giga-Prague would probably be up and running by now FWIW.

 

[jhm]

My take on the Tesla-Hertz thing is that Hertz was premature announcing a "partnership" with Tesla. Hertz has orders to buy vehicles from Tesla, but being a buyer of product is not the same thing as being a "partner" with the manufacturer of that product. For example, GM too has bought Tesla vehicles to test, but this would not make GM and Tesla partners. When Musk says, "no contract has been signed," I believe he is referring to an agreement constituting some sort of partnership, apart from merely filling purchase orders.

If Tesla is contemplating some sort of partnership with Hertz, what would this entail? And what might it imply about potential partnerships with competitors to Hertz in the car rental business? Would any terms of such a partnership grant any sort of exclusivity to Hertz?

No only is Musk affirming that the same vehicle price or gross margin is applied to consumers at to Hertz, but also the same deal is open to all auto rental companies, indeed all fleet buyers. At this point I don't think Tesla has anything to gain from an exclusive partnership with Hertz. If they want that sort of privilege, it would likely cost much more than the list price of cars. I think exclusivity is off the table.

It would appear that Avis is also placing orders for Tesla vehicles, just as Hertz is. Avis has the good sense to be discrete about this until they have the product in hand to rent out to their customers. The two may be in a race to see who can get the most Teslas first. If this is the case and when it comes to light, the market will understand why Musk was not interested in playing favorites between Hertz and Avis. Tesla will be the obvious beneficiary of competition amongst auto rental companies competing for the hottest inventory in the rental market.

My hunch is that the market will figure this out very quick, and the stock price will resume its upward journey.

 

[GOVA]

A Giga-Prague would probably be up and running by now FWIW.

This is really hard to tell. Building such a complex factory would vary vastly between Germania, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, France, you name it.
There had been solid basis on why Elon did choose Germany. Most still hold true - location, work force avilability, engineering staff quality, etc.

Now, it really boils down to predicting the fake envirnonmental forces that now seem to halt Tesla's progress. It might have been the same in any of the mentioned countries but in different form.

I think Tesla will overcome it eventually and get the production going. The good that Tesla brings on several fronts will not be halted forever. It can't.

 

[woodisgood]

Anyone think contractual hangups with Hertz might have something to do with Uber being involved? I wondered from the get-go what Uber’s angle is, beyond renting cars to its drivers.

Wonder if Hertz/Uber is trying to set up being a large FSD fleet operator (ie wants option to buy FSD on the cars it’s purchasing).

 

[Lessmog]

A mortgage is just a loan, not unlike a margin loan. The key to risk is how much leverage, whether it's mortgage or margin.

People often feel comfortable with 80% loan to value for their homes. With stocks and options, the loan to value is always less. Money is fungible, so $1000 on margin carries similar liabilities as $1000 in mortgage, unless someone is defaulting.

Not sure I see what you are getting at here.
"People often" is a generalization. Each case is unique to that person's personal life. This was me today; you do you, always.

This time, I choose to somewhat reduce the (small) risk of our mortgage rising uncontrollably by sacrificing a small part of the fantastic, incredible gains on TSLA. Who knows if I'm even alive to pay anything next week, and where would that leave my family? Up the wrong creek with inadequate propulsion, that's what.

So please understand, this is my own choice at this particular point in time. Everybody do make your own choices, periodically.

Still, thanks for the input.

HTH, NFA, IANAL & STO TLA's (soo tired of 3-letter acronyms)

 

[LightngMcQueen]

I'm beginning to wonder if Giga-Berlin should have instead been Giga-Anywhere Other Than Berlin....

I think Elon has overestimated transparency of German government and its independence from vested interests.

Location was attractive, Brandenburg state (Land) government seems genuinely friendly and proximity to Poland insures against potential labour shortage... it is EU, there is no physical border.

However Federal government and other states (Landes) seem to be keen on sabotaging Tesla. As far as I understand German economy blurs boundaries between corporations, investment banks, and state, and as far as I remember major institutional shareholders in legacy ICE companies include both major banks and local (state) governments. Add to that political role of the unions which is similar to UAW relationships with Big 3 and Democratic Party.

Some of the "environmental" groups opposing Tesla where from Bavaria - home of BMW - a state on other side of Germany. It looks fishy, as it would have looked if a group from Vermont protested Austin Gigafactory.

It looks to me that over last 2 quarters Musk unleashed a nuclear option - keep on flooding Germany with Made in China Teslas until government and unions there realize that being flooded with made in Germany Teslas is less painful.

I think it is working.... as Germans say ... slowly, slowly but inevitably.

 

[gabeincal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455595673366138885

 

[kanweg]

I agree on vehicle cost, @Curt Renz , but different from a single retail sale, there could still be:

• Custom / bulk payment terms
• Special delivery terms / dates
• Maintenance terms
• Co-branding terms
• Custom software terms (e.g. locking out much of the interface)
• Branded / bespoke Supercharger installation terms

Did I miss anything?

Custom paint?

 

[EVDRVN]

Anyone think contractual hangups with Hertz might have something to do with Uber being involved? I wondered from the get-go what Uber’s angle is, beyond renting cars to its drivers.

Wonder if Hertz/Uber is trying to set up being a large FSD fleet operator (ie wants option to buy FSD on the cars it’s purchasing).

I can't imagine Uber would want Tesla to have any data access to their driver data in any way.

 

[jhm]

I think Elon has overestimated transparency of German government and its independence from vested interests.

Location was attractive, Brandenburg state (Land) government seems genuinely friendly and proximity to Poland insures against potential labour shortage... it is EU, there is no physical border.

However Federal government and other states (Landes) seem to be keen on sabotaging Tesla. As far as I understand German economy blurs boundaries between corporations, investment banks, and state, and as far as I remember major institutional shareholders in legacy ICE companies include both major banks and local (state) governments. Add to that political role of the unions which is similar to UAW relationships with Big 3 and Democratic Party.

Some of the "environmental" groups opposing Tesla where from Bavaria - home of BMW - a state on other side of Germany. It looks fishy, as it would have looked if a group from Vermont protested Austin Gigafactory.

It looks to me that over last 2 quarters Musk unleashed a nuclear option - keep on flooding Germany with Made in China Teslas until government and unions there realize that being flooded with made in Germany Teslas is less painful.

I think it is working.... as Germans say ... slowly, slowly but inevitably.

How about flooding Germany with Made in Texas Tesla product?

 

[thx1139]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455595673366138885

Really at this point the drone videos are boring unless they catch something being delivered.

 

[gabeincal]

Really at this point the drone videos are boring unless they catch something being delivered.

Hence why I closed up shop in Fremont