Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sancho]

I totally get how a fund manager might have been underweight TSLA up until last quarter. Most of them had been dismissive of Tesla for a decade, and its market cap must have seemed absurd for a company they thought was unprofitable without regulatory credits.

But now? With margins increasing, they can do the math. Even with very conservative growth assumptions the SP no longer looks untethered to fundamentals. Demand for the product is also demonstrably high. How do you now justify your decision to be underweight? And every day you dither, you are losing out more to your benchmark index.

They have to buy TSLA now. Billions upon billions of it.

 

[MABMAB]

When to sell? Are you thinking about it?

One of the things I go back to is the beginning sections of William O'Neill's book How to Make Money in Stocks. The start has lots of charts of great historical winners over time. One can be right selling on the way up but miss out on stronger longer moves up. While I doubt I will sell significant portions of my TSLA holdings, if I did, I think I would rather sell on the way down rather than miss out on potential further moves up.

 

[Nocturnal]

When to sell? Are you thinking about it?

One of the things I go back to is the beginning sections of William O'Neill's book How to Make Money in Stocks. The start has lots of charts of great historical winners over time. One can be right selling on the way up but miss out on stronger longer moves up. While I doubt I will sell significant portions of my TSLA holdings, if I did, I think I would rather sell on the way down rather than miss out on potential further moves up.

I've trimmed a few %, but mostly I'm just sitting with my covered calls. If they execute at $1300-$1500 I'm not mad about it. I'll buy back on modest dips and/or sell puts until I get my target # of shares back. Barring big macro problems it's hard to imagine we get back to 3 digits again.

 

[Surfer of Life]

1) yes a broker must segregate fully paid shares from shares purchase using margin. only the margin shares are allowed to be lent by your broker

2) your broker can lend fully paid shares only if they offer a program to that effect (stock yield enhancement program) AND you deliberately opt-in to the program.




to the first question (can you ask for them back)
in scenario 1 above - no (the shares aren’t “yours” per se, because you used margin)

in scenario 2 above - yes
- in my example, at ibkr, i can opt in or opt out of syep (program) which affects all stocks, i can’t just single out TSLA or another security (not sure if that’s just for operational efficiency or if it’s market regulation?)

to your 2nd question, scenario 2 is all that applies. (more on that below).

to 3rd question - yes
as soon as your shares become fully paid again, the broker is forced to segregate them from pool of margin shares, on your behalf

the unwind of 2 and 3, when the shares are lent out - the mechanics are similar

- you inject cash to cover the margin, or your overall acct value raises enough to cover the margin
- or you recall your fully paid (opted “in”) lent shares

the broker must recall the loan on ‘t’
- i think the counterpart has 2 days to etienne the shares (up to t+2)
- on t+3 market opening, fail to receive broker can “buy-in” fail to deliver broker
- the cost of the buy in is charged to the FTD broker
- the buy in trade settles 2 more days (now we’re at t+5
- at which point that could fail too

point is, it’s fairly instant in your acct once your shares are now fully paid, but it’s not instant on the street side (nscc) of the equation

Thanks for all the help.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla needs to buy a couple welding schools around the country. Cybertruck is going to drastically increase the need for guys who can weld stainless. Maybe go ahead and train folks how to repair single piece castings and structural batteries while they are at it.

Why do you think Tesla will use humans to weld the Cybertruck?

 

[2daMoon]

Tesla needs to buy a couple welding schools around the country. Cybertruck is going to drastically increase the need for guys who can weld stainless. Maybe go ahead and train folks how to repair single piece castings and structural batteries while they are at it.

SpaceX already has robots trained to weld the same stainless at Starbase.

 

[Opus BC fan]

This is pure conjecture on my part. I wonder if the battle for 1300 increases the stakes on both sides. At 1300 we are well into split territory. Both sides of this battle have lots to gain and lose when that happens.

 

[Nocturnal]

SpaceX already has robots trained to weld the same stainless at Starbase.

Why do you think Tesla will use humans to weld the Cybertruck?

For collision repairs, not for building them.

 

[22522]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456186201489264642

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456163413420294144

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456171492266369027

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456141782354436096

Buy the Dip or Make the Dip? Is that a question?

• people need shares.
• they look better (keep their jobs) if they can obtain them at the lowest possible cost.
• they cannot wait for a dip, they have to try to make one.

Some people use trailing stop losses, maybe people on margin? (I don't know anything about margin or options).

People with money and real or imaginary shares can take stock away from people who use trailing stop losses, by driving the stock through the range that triggers automatic selling. This automatic selling drives the price even lower.

Low enough to let people cover their need for TSLA shares at a much lower cost.

This only works if there is automated selling that avalanches the price drop.

There is a famous book that everyone has read. It is a book that instructs on how to make a dip and take stock away from anyone who follows the principles and threshold outlined in the book.

The "how to make a dip and take people's TSLA stock away from them" book is titled, "William O'Neill's book."

If you use that book, you will not lose your shirt, but are likely to lose your TSLA stock. Dip makers know the play book and use it to their advantage.

If you want to own TSLA don't use those O'Neill's thresholds or trailing stop losses.

Theme over the last few weeks has been "They can't take that away from me." The reason for that theme is:

If you use (trailing) stop losses, they can take your TSLA stock away from you. (and have done it many times in the past).

(note: This is my interpretation of Curt's post.)

 

[Wicket]

Although admittedly a potential split makes me nervous about this, I am beginning to sell 2000 strike calls for Jan '23. It's ~140 strike now. I don't think a stock with the margin of TSLA can hold a 25x trailing revenue which would be roughly what a 80B 2022 figure and a 2T market cap would be. But were it to go over 2140 and prove me wrong that's what all the shares (covered call) are for. Even a decline in IV over the next few months would help me out (it has spiked quite a bit).

 

[StealthP3D]

There is a famous book that everyone has read. It is a book that instructs on how to make a dip and take stock away from anyone who follows the principles and threshold outlined in the book.

The "how to make a dip and take people's TSLA stock away from them" book is titled, "William O'Neill's book."

If you use that book, you will not lose your shirt, but are likely to lose you TSLA stock. Dip makers know the play book and use it to their advantage.

If you want to own TSLA don't use those O'Neill's thresholds or trailing stop losses.

Theme over the last few weeks has been "They can't take that away from me." The reason for that theme is:

If you use (trailing) stop losses, they can take your TSLA away from you. (and have done it many times in the past).

Exactly. I'll just add that I started reading books casually about making money in the stock market at an early age, probably around 12 or 14 years (I was interested in just about everything in the world I was growing up in). Before I had invested my first dollar I determined most books on investing are full of flaws.

I'm not sure if I've read William O'Neill's book(s) but I see a BIG problem. He was born in 1933, was the youngest person in 1963 to buy a seat on the NYSE and yet his estimated net worth is only 100 million. If that's accurate, that's a HUGE red flag. If he was a good enough investor to be writing books about it he would be worth billions by now. And this is the flaw with all books on investing I've ever read. People who are actually really good at it tend to not write books about it.

 

[2daMoon]

For collision repairs, not for building them.

That won't be Tesla's job. But yes, the body shops may need to get trained.

Though, honestly, Cybertruck will suffer damage in a collision less frequently than will, say, an aluminum bodied F-series pickup.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Strong action in the Pre-market again. Institutional buyers don't usually start buying until after 10 am

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes​

Data last updated Nov 04, 2021 09:30 AM ET.
This page will resume updating on Nov 05, 2021 04:00 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$1,235.38 +21.52 (+1.77%)
Pre-Market Volume	1,005,674
Pre-Market High	$1,250 (04:13:04 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$1,220 (04:02:31 AM)

Cheers!

 

[AudubonB]

In todays edition of “First world problems”; I too have contemplated a roadster; but I pause for two reasons: 1) because I think about what $50k in TSLA will do in the meantime and 2) I’m attached to my TMC username.

When delivery dates get closer I too will likely experience roadster FOMO.

You could change your handle….or, at least, call your Roadster….”Ferrari Roaster”

 

[JRP3]

Maybe go ahead and train folks how to repair single piece castings and structural batteries while they are at it.

You don't repair single piece castings or structural packs. Any damage that deep into the vehicle will likely be a totaled vehicle.

 

[Gigapress]

Why do you think Tesla will use humans to weld the Cybertruck?

Also for adding on aftermarket accessories that can't just be installed with the L tracks in the vault floor.

 

[Discoducky]

Resistance at $1240, but potential to cruise up to $1410! Lovin' Corey's analysis

 

[JRP3]

When to sell? Are you thinking about it?

I've been selling on the run up, sold more in the last few weeks than I ever have. Probably done for now until next year. If there is a significant pull back I'll buy, if it keeps going up I'll keep holding. Either way I have more money than I ever expected.

 

[Nocturnal]

You don't repair single piece castings or structural packs. Any damage that deep into the vehicle will likely be a totaled vehicle.

They have crash absorption rails that will be cut off and replaced according to Elon.

 

[Mengy]

In todays edition of “First world problems”; I too have contemplated a roadster; but I pause for two reasons: 1) because I think about what $50k in TSLA will do in the meantime and 2) I’m attached to my TMC username.

When delivery dates get closer I too will likely experience roadster FOMO.

You know I could actually afford to buy a Roadster for myself now, but honestly the MY is just better suited for what I need in a car, and I have no desire to own more than one car at a time.

I might be wealthy now thanks to Tesla but I'm still practical at heart.



Nice action on the stock this morning, feels like it might be coiling again for another run up.