Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

I want to know how an entire Tesla semi factory was built without any daily drone flyovers for me to obsess over.

It looks like the same design as the Home Depot and other buildings in the area so no reason for anyone to assume it was another Tesla building. Might be leased by Tesla. Interesting that they decided to use a separate building instead of adding to existing GF1.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Most likely he doesn't want to increase drag just for a wiper blade. The hood/bonnet transition to the windshield is currently flat so no resistance is created. When you open up a horizontal gap to hide the wiper you create drag. Likely at least as bad as what a mirror adds. The current vertical positioning adds to it but probably not too much asit's inline with your travel.

Furthermore, the blade may deserve a smooth covering. Why the heck not (assuming the weight/cost penalty of a cover is sufficiently offset by improved overall Drag Coefficient). Air pressure must be pretty high on that surface, so resulting air turbulence might be significant from just a wiper, even aligned. I bet this conversation already happen at Tesla, we'll see.

 

[generalenthu]

Furthermore, the blade may deserve a smooth covering. Why the heck not (assuming the weight/cost penalty of a cover is sufficiently offset by improved overall Drag Coefficient). Air pressure must be pretty high on that surface, so resulting air turbulence might be significant from just a wiper, even aligned. I bet this conversation already happen at Tesla, we'll see.

I am doubling down on lasers. Elon said they can do anything.

 

[printf42]

Not news? The China factory went 3D, close to zero inventory. It is the product from China.

I STILL think we're looking at the Model 2 as an efficient, low-cost Model 3. My basis is the extreme focus on cost savings in the China video, increasing margins into the 40-50% range, then do the price "drop".

And if I can't speculate here without being admonished by certain members, kicked out, then kicked around... You're all on notice. It's a joke until it's not people. (Edit: This wasn't meant to point at @Artful Dodger, he's very cool. All Canadians are exempt).

At this point I think the 25k model means a trim they CAN sell at 25k for a profit, but they don’t HAVE TO. They might already be able to it with Model 3 if they are willing to trim some features and make it slightly worse.

In more than one occasions Elon had said there is no model 2 then went on to rant about model 3.

Again, even when they are capable of making such a trim, they don’t have to, and with the slow pace the rest of industry is ramping up to meet the explosive demand, they may never need to do it, especially if FSD would be solved in a few years.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I want to know how an entire Tesla semi factory was built without any daily drone flyovers for me to obsess over.

A Factory is not needed for a few semi's. I believe you can assemble a vehicle in one parking spot and a great shop - how did they build Roadsters at first? I'm thinking more hand-assembled Beta units for testing at Pepsi, supplemented by some of the volume equipment such as Stamp using one-off Tool & Die sets (just as a plausible example of some hybrid manufacturing). Remember, they don't need volume Semi's at first (due to battery shortages). So I don't see why they can't schedule 50 units or so in Stamp (during lunch break so to speak) without disrupting the main production volume. And if you throw in some limited battery production (Roadrunner) along with stamping, that's just cost cutting on new models, but low volume still until a dedicated line shows up somewhere.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Wouldn't it be ”funny” if the CyberTruck release/ramp up was being held up NOT because of the ground breaking manufacturing process for the unibody and folded SS body parts but for such an anodyne reason as the layout of a wiper arm?

It wouldn't surprise me. When I saw the video with that giant wiper on the CT the thought occurred to me they might be fishing for ideas on how to handle the blade.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I may be completely misunderstanding but it sure looks like he has 23,737,030 vested and has acquired 13,702,368 so far, a deficit of 10,034,682 to go

Does the 23.74M shares above represent all 10 tranches, or only the 9 that have vested so far? (the 10th can't vest before Aug 2022 due to its terms).

Elon could be creating an endowment for a new technical university. In that case, he could simply donate the shares to the endowment, then take the 33% Income tax benefit for the charitable donation.

If this is his plan, then the final 33% of shares would NOT be sold on the open market, but donated to the charity. This works out to 7,833,220 shares to donate, based on 23.74M shares (slightly less remain to donate if his vested shares are only 90% of the 23.74M you've listed).

I don't know what his intent is, but from a tax-efficiency perspective, this might be a good way to finish his sales. It'd be good for Education and later employment in Texas, too.

Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

It wouldn't surprise me. When I saw the video with that giant wiper on the CT the thought occurred to me they might be fishing for ideas on how to handle the blade.

Oh wait, are you all thinking the laser is in the blade and it sweeps the glass blasting like a jet printer?
That could explain the "wire" on the side as it might need some extra laser power not designed into the power distribution originally - but that's a leap maybe. Better than my first conclusion anyway.

 

[jerry33]

A Factory is not needed for a few semi's. I believe you can assemble a vehicle in one parking spot and a great shop

Pacific Truck and Trailer (Burnaby, B.C.) built Class 8 and larger trucks from the ground up all in one space before they were bought out and the plant closed. Lots of really unique vehicles came out of that factory.

 

[22522]

If you look at the air flow around the A-pillar corners, a separation bubble forms, effectively increasing the frontal area.

A vane that helps the flow make the corner, and not separate, reduces drag.

The blade and mechanism could be shaped like a vane when not in use and transform to a stiff blade when wiping the windshield.

This seems like the right amount of detail for this forum.

Tesla knows this and will sort it out.

 

[SOULPEDL]

At this point I think the 25k model means a trim they CAN sell at 25k for a profit, but they don’t HAVE TO. They might already be able to it with Model 3 if they are willing to trim some features and make it slightly worse.

In more than one occasions Elon had said there is no model 2 then went on to rant about model 3.

Again, even when they are capable of making such a trim, they don’t have to, and with the slow pace the rest of industry is ramping up to meet the explosive demand, they may never need to do it, especially if FSD would be solved in a few years.

Correct and how most CEOs would view this option, unless there's another motive such as targeting short sellers or MM (although I believe % shorting isn't as crazy as it was in the past???). The $25K M3 might not be available this year (Edit: or next), and that satisfies your osborning concern I believe. However, available for ordering could still be possible with a more optimal date as you suggest.

Pre-orders could offload some of the insane demand on the higher priced M3 and maybe even some Y (SR RWD) assuming size doesn't matter in China, but that's a swag. Cost, efficiency, and a reduced environmental impact seems in line with the culture and parking space sizes, but others would know better here as I've only been to Shanghai a few times. More cars with fewer batteries is also key for this Mission Possible.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Pacific Truck and Trailer (Burnaby, B.C.) built Class 8 and larger trucks from the ground up all in one space before they were bought out and the plant closed. Lots of really unique vehicles came out of that factory.

Thanks, I was only guessing on this but it made sense like everything else I'm seeing.

My close friend owned a steel roofing business in Burnaby. He recently sold his share of his company and bought 2.7 acres of lake frontage on the Shuswap. Those Canadians!!!

 

[ZachF]

Just FYI:

Cybertruck 4 with a black wrap and some brush guard type accessories is basically an IRL Batmobile.

 

[ZeApelido]

I am doubling down on lasers. Elon said they can do anything.

Including depth perception with LIDAR!

[ducks]

 

[mongo]

Does the 23.74M shares above represent all 10 tranches, or only the 9 that have vested so far (the 10th can't vest before Aug 2022 due to its terms).

Per form 4:
As of the date of this filing, 23,737,050 of the shares subject to this option have vested and 2,637,455 of the shares have not vested.
21.1 M shares vested.

 

[ZachF]

Including depth perception with LIDAR!

[ducks]

 

[advocate8]

It wouldn't surprise me. When I saw the video with that giant wiper on the CT the thought occurred to me they might be fishing for ideas on how to handle the blade.

Could just spin a glass circle inset in front of the driver like a Navy ship.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Just FYI:

Cybertruck 4 with a black wrap and some brush guard type accessories is basically an IRL Batmobile.

I was thinking this morning about what North Philadelphia could do with a stainless exoskeleton Cybertruck and literally all the electricity a person could need to add anything. Wait to you see what's rolling around my neighborhood 18 months from now. I have no notion of what it'll be, but I know for a fact it'll be mind-blowing.

I have a tri-motor reservation and planned to just give away to whoever was interested when production started. I'm buying this quad-motor now for sure, driving it around 2-3 weeks for fun, and selling it to someone around here just to see what it turns into. Exciting times.

 

[ZachF]

I’m wondering if they could do something with the yoke like this on Cybertruck… you turn the steering wheel like normal to turn the front wheels, then you turn on “crawl” mode or something, and the rear wheels turn by rotating the yoke the the push/pull axis? Thus giving you independent control of each set of wheels.

 

[Ogre]

I’m wondering if they could do something with the yoke like this on Cybertruck… you turn the steering wheel like normal to turn the front wheels, then you turn on “crawl” mode or something, and the rear wheels turn by rotating the yoke the the push/pull axis? Thus giving you independent control of each set of wheels.

Plan A: 99% of 4 wheel steering is done invisibly by the computer and you don’t even know it’s happening. Just magically have better control. The rare occasion you have need of crab steering will take about 4 menu taps like most other stuff on the Tesla you don’t use every day.

Plan B: The passenger in the rear seat has a separate yoke, just like the big fire engines have.