Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Looks like the government of Canada has joined Elon in opposing the proposed US EV incentive program:

While their logic maybe sound in theory, I see one major practical flaw: as far as I know* there is not a single EV being produced in Canada and sold in US, which would be treated "unfairly" by the incentive program. On the other hand, if Canada introduces tariffs on US made EVs in retaliation, that extra cost will obviously get passed onto the customers who buy them, so effectively, our "smart" government decided to punish its own citizens who wanted to buy US EVs in order to protect nobody -- since no actual Canadian interest was harmed by the US incentive! Huh ?!?!

That has gotta be the stupidest knee-jerk reaction I've ever seen by a government...

*: please let me know what EV is being made in Canada in case there is any I do not know about

It's not a stupid, knee-jerk reaction at all, it's rational and 100% justified. Because it it's irrelevant whether Canadian auto makers currently produce an EV that would be impacted, the fact is, such a bill removes any incentive for them to do so. And I can only imagine, if they want to survive electrification, they have plans to export EV's that would be impacted.

If a trade war ensues it will be 100% the fault of the current US administration for not honoring their existing agreements. What good is a country's word if they habitually break their promises?

 

[ZachF]

Ben Sullivan gets so much wrong, so consistently, it would be funny if not for the fact that he takes himself so seriously. It's sad what happened to big Tesla fans who sold out far too soon, thinking they did well. I believe his expertise is in statistical analysis but to be good at statistical analysis requires a feel for the subject you are analyzing so he often fails there too.

It’s been a long while since I’ve watched him, the most recent being when he used to do that podcast with Everyday Astronaut and I just remember thinking “that’s not how that works Ben…” all of the time.

 

[ZeApelido]

Trust me, Mary Barra is a true engineer, so she knew exactly what Trevor Milton meant when he told her " Nikola's gravitymetric energy densosity is not believable".

 

[CHGolferJim]

I think I have finally figured out why Elon is selling shares on the open market instead of selling them in blocks to institutional buyers: he is simply done with playing WS’s games. He wants to sell shares like everybody else and give retails a chance to buy the dip. This is the same reason the $5b ATM offering was sold on the open market. This is further cemented by the move into BTC. Here we are stressing over the weekly score but all he cares about is how the game is played. Sooner or later this sale is gonna be over and the big bois who think they so smart sidestepping the dip will have to pay the piper.

Those are good points. I also find convincing the idea that, since he needs to do it for personal reasons, he is trying to keep SP down for awhile until employee options are granted. Does anyone know what the datea of those big grants are?

 

[StealthP3D]

An 80k lb Semi coming down a 7% grade at 65 mph needs about 730 kw in braking power (net continuous) to perform that descent without increasing its speed.

There are a few 7 mile stretches like that on certain highways (although many are much shorter). But call it a max of 7 minutes giving a total of 78.5 kwh of energy, at a regen rate of 730 kw.

That's very close to a 1.2C charge rate (well within bty specs) on a 300 Mile range Semi (assuming a 600 kwh bty). Semi will consume about 15 kw of that regen power, the rest will go to charging the bty and charging losses / heat.

So it'll be fine. Easy, peasy, lemon-squeezy.

BTW, this is why big diesel trucks have to slow down on steep descents. Their engine (jake) brakes can not absorb that much braking energy, so they slow down to decrease the potential energy absorbed per unit of time. Of course, friction brakes are overwhelmed by heat in just a few 10s of seconds.

Now, who wants to know how fast a Semi with a 1 MWh bty pack can come down that mountain w/o overheating its battery pack? Any guesses?

Cheers!

I think a fully loaded Tesla semi is not even challenged by a 7% grade. Remember to subtract the normal resistance of air and friction and sidewall flexing of all those tires. And then, just when you think it might be cutting it too close for comfort, remember that it will have the same friction brakes that regular semi's have!

If this was going to be a concern, Tesla would equip them with electric water heaters so the driver could take a hot shower when he got to town!

 

[ReddyLeaf]

You will all enjoy this:

Stuff

i.stuff.co.nz

Local policy maker who wants to go green but for some reason doesn’t like EVs encounters obvious problem after buying a hydrogen SUV

Shucks, nowhere to refill. /s

 

[Paracelsus]

Looks like the government of Canada has joined Elon in opposing the proposed US EV incentive program:

While their logic maybe sound in theory, I see one major practical flaw: as far as I know* there is not a single EV being produced in Canada and sold in US, which would be treated "unfairly" by the incentive program. On the other hand, if Canada introduces tariffs on US made EVs in retaliation, that extra cost will obviously get passed onto the customers who buy them, so effectively, our "smart" government decided to punish its own citizens who wanted to buy US EVs in order to protect nobody -- since no actual Canadian interest was harmed by the US incentive! Huh ?!?!

That has gotta be the stupidest knee-jerk reaction I've ever seen by a government...

*: please let me know what EV is being made in Canada in case there is any I do not know about

Could there be another possibility? Perhaps this retaliation isn’t just about EVs. Tariffs on EVs in Canada would help protect and extend the life of Alberta Tar Sands and other fossil fuel interests in Canada - the media coverage of which always seems to be a little lacking…….hmmm . Don’t we do the same in the US all the time - Machiavellian politics - ‘hey, look over there while we strip the guts from Green New Deal and create a UAW/GM EV incentive program that procrastinates our transition to clean energy and protects existing grid owners, fossil fuel interests, and Legacy auto makers for many more years while we told you ‘Mary Led’ and that pragmatic approaches are good - even as the data suggests climate change is accelerating.

Without a doubt the most striking images for me from Leonardo DiCaprio’s Climate Change Documentary ‘Before the Flood’ were of the massive destruction in the tar sand fields. Those images are vivid for me as I write this. As someone who spent their entire career working to preserve our Resources (salmon, wildlife, water, and energy), with much of it spent in very remote places entirely off the road system in Alaska - accessible only by plane or boat - in places that make Audie’s hometown look like a metropolis, those images of the Alberta Tar Sand destruction are burned into my mind forever. Thus I don’t look for a simple binary answer that says I should judge one side of the border as better than the other on policy because I am angry at the misrepresentation and lack of action on both sides……………make that ‘on every side’. We need to be critical when more can be done. We need to shed our binary thinking and our cognitive dissonance about borders and about politics, because all countries and all parties can do more. Challenge both sides, even if you prefer one side over the other - because neither is doing enough, and they are all influenced by special interests.

 

[jerry33]

I think a fully loaded Tesla semi is not even challenged by a 7% grade. Remember to subtract the normal resistance of air and friction and sidewall flexing of all those tires.

The resistance of sidewall flexing--more properly carcass or casing--in radial truck tires is close to zero. Remove the belts and you can compress the carcass with your pinky. The rolling resistance of a radial tire comes mainly from the belts flexing in and out of the contact patch.

 

[navguy12]

Looks like the government of Canada has joined Elon in opposing the proposed US EV incentive program:

While their logic maybe sound in theory, I see one major practical flaw: as far as I know* there is not a single EV being produced in Canada and sold in US, which would be treated "unfairly" by the incentive program. On the other hand, if Canada introduces tariffs on US made EVs in retaliation, that extra cost will obviously get passed onto the customers who buy them, so effectively, our "smart" government decided to punish its own citizens who wanted to buy US EVs in order to protect nobody -- since no actual Canadian interest was harmed by the US incentive! Huh ?!?!

That has gotta be the stupidest knee-jerk reaction I've ever seen by a government...

*: please let me know what EV is being made in Canada in case there is any I do not know about

Car parts that fit into ICE will become/are obsolete.

The rebate seems to be set up to incentivize one to source parts specifically from the States versus North America.

 

[SmokyPeat]

It worked for me. I was a sub nine Months ago, and he made it clear, he had an ax to grind with Tesla, and if you did not agree, don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

he is basically a male “Karen” When it comes to Tesla.

I used to see him on the 'Our Ludicrous Future' podcast. Really just watched that because of Tim Dodd. Couldn't stand Sullins personality and general lack of knowledge, so I never watched any of the vids he put out by himself. It amazes me that he has any viewers in the first place.

 

[ZsoZso]

Could there be another possibility? Perhaps this retaliation isn’t just about EVs. Tariffs on EVs in Canada would help protect and extend the life of Alberta Tar Sands and other fossil fuel interests in Canada - the media coverage of which always seems to be a little lacking…….hmmm .

You are right, what is behind the curtain is probably protection of fossil-fuel interests and fossil-burning car makers within Canada, who will be happy if imported EVs become more expensive, making their ICE cars more attractive to the consumers. I just find it extremely despicable that they punish the progressive Canadian citizens who want to buy EVs while pretending to care about and protect non-existent Canadian EV makers.

 

[StealthP3D]

You will all enjoy this:

Stuff

i.stuff.co.nz

Local policy maker who wants to go green but for some reason doesn’t like EVs encounters obvious problem after buying a hydrogen SUV

He must be an Aussie transplant. Oh, wait, he's a politician, I guess that explains it.

 

[StealthP3D]

So this brings up something interesting. Supposedly H2 makes more sense in big trucks than pure EV.

Supposedly hydrogen makes more sense in trucks than batteries? According to who? Trevor? Tesla haters?

A hydrogen semi without a green source of hydrogen, is worse than diesel! And no one has come up with a green source of hydrogen that won't make our transport costs go through the roof.

But good point about regen braking. I imagine a hydrogen truck might want some dump resistors if it needs to cross any mountain ranges. Might as well just put more batteries in there and get rid of all that complicated plumbing, stacks of fuel cells and big, expensive hydrogen tanks.

 

[MC3OZ]

Well, at issue was the range of a cheap car, so with say $25-30k, which changes the calculation. And in my country, most private people drive even in this category cars as second hand cars. (I’m oldish and I’ve never had a new car in my life. Ironically it will be Musk that will make owning a new car possible in the future.)

Rail capacity is insufficient for a summer mass exodus and for the sake of CO2 we don’t want the plane as the most attractive alternative.

I think it is a mistake to assume there is only one car, one trim level, one option in terms of range.

My point was it is important hit the $25K price target for a new EV, regardless of range, performance etc.
Tesla still wants the best possible range and performance for $25K.

The $25K model might be the base model of perhaps small sedan. (Chinese)
There would be at least 2-3 higher trim models with AWD, more range better performance, say at $30K, $35K, $45K.

Then there may be a European designed compact car which is in a hot-hatch format.
That may have more range and performance in all variants and a higher price, say $35K, $45K, $50K.

it isn't immediately obvious, but both cars allow for an eco-system of high volume low priced parts.
To make the $25K car, parts need to be the right price.

Some of those lower priced high volume parts can eventually be used in other cars like Model 3/Y.

This is why I say the $25K is important, it isn't just what the car itself will do in terms of sales and the mission, it is the eco-system of parts and knowledge that can flow on to other models.

 

[Paracelsus]

 

[lascavarian]

Got the Cyberwhistle. Very cool IMO. I expected something folded but the construction is not that. I would be interested in a video describing its construction process. It is a bit more complex than I expected. Here be engineering!

 

[Beltsbear]

I think a fully loaded Tesla semi is not even challenged by a 7% grade. Remember to subtract the normal resistance of air and friction and sidewall flexing of all those tires. And then, just when you think it might be cutting it too close for comfort, remember that it will have the same friction brakes that regular semi's have!

If this was going to be a concern, Tesla would equip them with electric water heaters so the driver could take a hot shower when he got to town!

Not only that. I am pretty sure the Semi could keep itself under control with half the motors and battery knocked out. And from what we know, it probably has four independent systems of batteries and motors. This won't be an issue. There could be some instructions not to fully charge at the top of an unusually big grade, but that is about it. There are all kinds of required knowledge and rules with ICE class 8 trucks too, so this limitation (if it exists) is minor.

 

[Beltsbear]

View attachment 743682

Not really a fair comparison. The Model S motor also has the transmission/transaxle included, and that is a separate assembly on the BMW with hundreds of parts. Actually the BMW transmission (not shown) is similar in size to the entire Model S motor/transaxle/inverter.

 

[NoGasNoBrakes]

View attachment 743682

Looks like a lot more things could go wrong in that X5 motor, but a Tesla’s clearly the more dangerous car to drive amiright?

 

[ZachF]

View attachment 743682

Mein gott!