Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

Happy new year everyone!
It is said giga Austin was ready for production but decided to wait till Jan for accounting purpose. That sounds very reasonable. Can we expect a ribbon cutting event when the fist production car gets off the assembly line next week?

Possibly @theaccountant or someone can remark on this, but I thought last time this came out it was actually better (if it would've been possible) for Tesla to produce, but not deliver, Austin cars Q4 2021, then deliver them in 2022, for accounting purposes as it'd soften the expected blow to margin during early ramp in Q1..... Not sure what benefit holding production off to Q1 would get them in contrast

Is this comment from Tesla China Analyst just an inaccurate translation - where they state that all numbers are supposed by themself. Possibly just trying to protect their sources?


Their predictions are too accurate too often to not have some inside info - about half the predictions are spot on when rounding is included. The remaining predictions can be quite off.

With rounding- only 5 out of 13 predictions have an error 1% or less. The same number (5 out of 13) have an error in the double digits. The 3 left are 2.6% neg, 2.9% pos, and 7% neg. Doesn't seem like inside info to me.

 

[Mike Smith]

New Wuwa video shows Model 3s coming out of Shanghai every 45.5 seconds. So today's videos showed:

Model Y every 36.1 seconds
Model 3 every 45.5 seconds

 

[Unpilot]

I have had a day or two to play with the FSD beta. This is not a missive about how good or not good it is...(quirky is a word I might use)

Rather, a note about having a feeling of being at the forefront of an amazing new life-saving and life changing technology.

Besides making the safest (and funnest) car I have ever owned. They are making one that will enable many people to travel that would not be able to without FSD. They also will save countless lives once FSD is fully solved.

I am honored to play a small part in training this new technology.

 

[jhm]

Happy New Year! Tesla, bring it!

 

[Unpilot]

Fun article for your New Year Day

The 18 Best EVs Coming in 2022

The electric car’s time has come. Here are the EVs to keep an eye out for in the new year.

www.wired.com

Wow, I will take two of the Citroen Ami please/s

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Interesting quotes in this CNBC article. The way I read it, Farley is trying to justify the lack of available vehicles to sell: It helps drive up prices. From SPACs to chips: Five ways 2021 may have forever changed the auto industry

It’s a situation that some auto executives such as Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley have pledged to continue when the industry is not in a time of crisis because of the higher margins for the automaker as well as its dealers.

“This is a better way to run our business,” Farley told investors earlier this year. “We have the most complicated go-to-market system I think on planet Earth. We could simplify all of that with tighter inventories.”

Instead of a 75-day or more supply of vehicles, Ford is targeting a 50 days’ supply. To help manage this, Farley wants to move the company more to an order-based system instead of customers buying vehicles off a dealer lot. It will help lower discounts from the automaker and allow Ford to better manage its production, he said.

 

[ninpb]

New Wuwa video shows Model 3s coming out of Shanghai every 45.5 seconds. So today's videos showed:

Model Y every 36.1 seconds
Model 3 every 45.5 seconds

How many hours is Fremont and Shanghai open regularly?

 

[Ogre]

Question for the TMC hive mind

Is there anything legally prevents a company from providing a special product purchase option to customers based on the length of time they have held stock ?

I don’t know about time of ownership, but companies can definitely offer benefits to owners. I know Berkshire Hathaway offers all kinds of deals at their annual shareholders meetings.

If you are a long time shareholder do you really need special deals though?

I’d love it if Tesla started doing car sales at their annual meetings. They could offer a special emerald green color exclusive. Or a lime green Plaid.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

I have had a day or two to play with the FSD beta. This is not a missive about how good or not good it is...(quirky is a word I might use)

Rather, a note about having a feeling of being at the forefront of an amazing new life-saving and life changing technology.

Besides making the safest (and funnest) car I have ever owned. They are making one that will enable many people to travel that would not be able to without FSD. They also will save countless lives once FSD is fully solved.

I am honored to play a small part in training this new technology.

A couple of years ago my Mum, who is closing on her 90th birthday, decided to stop driving. Sadly I fear that FSD will not get good enough quickly enough for her to benefit from the freedom of mobility that it will ensure for those of us that are a generation younger. FSD will not only save countless lives, it will also improve quality of life for many others. Another aspect to the mission to improve the lot of mankind that I am happy and honoured to be able to support together with all other Tesla shareholders.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I wonder if one of the reasons Elon finished his selling in Q4 was to “reduce the vector of attack” by selling before big catalysts and not at a local “top”?

Whether it’s q4 numbers or a spliterino it will appear more “fair” to the masses.

Wishing everyone a very Bullish, Health filled 2022!

 

[Opus BC fan]

I have had a day or two to play with the FSD beta. This is not a missive about how good or not good it is...(quirky is a word I might use)

Rather, a note about having a feeling of being at the forefront of an amazing new life-saving and life changing technology.

Besides making the safest (and funnest) car I have ever owned. They are making one that will enable many people to travel that would not be able to without FSD. They also will save countless lives once FSD is fully solved.

I am honored to play a small part in training this new technology.

I fully agree. I have had FSD beta for about a week. As it is with my Tesla investment, being allowed to play a small part in this grand project is a wonderful gift.

 

[insaneoctane]

Lots of good info on FSD v11 for those who don't have the time to listen.

1. Was hoping to release it this year but is now delayed
2. Single stack
3. Re-write by replacing C++ with NN as the vector space compiler.
4. Reaching local maximum at how well C++ can generate vector space using NN's calculations (aka bag of points).
5. Taking away post processing of images which reduce 13ms of latency
6. Will require a complete retain of data due to #5
7. Surround video and train using surround video via auto labeling
8. It's in alpha
9. Add additional capabilities but didn't mention what they are


Overall design language

1. Simplify code by deleting lots of C++

2. Decrease latency via by skipping post processing of images

3. Decrease or eliminate "jitter" which randomly generates latency between 0-100ms. Elon said eliminating jitter will solve lots of issues with current software because the randomness of the latency it generates can throw the car off by a significant amount.

4. Team works on bare metal level compiler/software designed inhouse to optimize as much as possible for the limited amount of compute on FSD HW 3.0 which results in an increase of frames per second.

I’m very impressed with Tesla's continued willingness to start over...their willingness to acknowledge the local maximum. Many other even small companies aren't able to reset as needed due to the resources already committed. Look how many FSD companies still hold onto Lidar. Yet, Tesla, a 1T company, keeps recognizing their local maximums and quickly adjusts, even starts over. Amazing. This simple fact alone gives me great confidence that we've got the right horse here!

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I don’t know about time of ownership, but companies can definitely offer benefits to owners. I know Berkshire Hathaway offers all kinds of deals at their annual shareholders meetings.

If you are a long time shareholder do you really need special deals though?

I’d love it if Tesla started doing car sales at their annual meetings. They could offer a special emerald green color exclusive. Or a lime green Plaid.

The special deal I’m referring to is not discounted pricing.

It is merely access to product in advance of general release, or the having a special “founders edition” that is available specifically for long term shareholders. Tesla has made “limited edition” signature series products before, and Elon likes looking out for long term shareholders so I just put the 2 ideas together. Then I examine that through the lens of being a car enthusiast. Go Plaid Y!

I wasn’t aware that Berkshire did that. I’m curious; are the Berkshire “deals”on products that are:

1. otherwise unavailable to the public, or
2.in advance of them being made available to the general public
3. Priced better than the public for generally available products

Don’t want to take this OT, but just wondering if it would be legal for Tesla to do this.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I wonder if one of the reasons Elon finished his selling in Q4 was to “reduce the vector of attack” by selling before big catalysts and not at a local “top”?

Whether it’s q4 numbers or a spliterino it will appear more “fair” to the masses.

I like your optimism but for all we know right now, he may have sold at a local top.

 

[Christine69420]

Made in Berlin Model Y spotted in Norway

Tesla Model Y built at Giga Berlin spotted in Norway

A Tesla Model Y Performance with a Giga Berlin VIN was spotted today at the Rud/Oslo Service Center in Norway.

driveteslacanada.ca

So with at least one car built in Berlin with number plates on driving in Norway. Does this imply that the homologation process is already completed for German built Model Y cars?

Anyone more in the know?

 

[Andy O]

The special deal I’m referring to is not discounted pricing.

It is merely access to product in advance of general release, or the having a special “founders edition” that is available specifically for long term shareholders. Tesla has made “limited edition” signature series products before, and Elon likes looking out for long term shareholders so I just put the 2 ideas together. Then I examine that through the lens of being a car enthusiast. Go Plaid Y!

I wasn’t aware that Berkshire did that. I’m curious; are the Berkshire “deals”on products that are:

1. otherwise unavailable to the public, or
2.in advance of them being made available to the general public
3. Priced better than the public for generally available products

Don’t want to take this OT, but just wondering if it would be legal for Tesla to do this.

I hope that would be illegal, although I don't know what category of business law that would violate. If the special item allowed to selected shareholders had a significant value and benefitted them financially in a way that general shareholders couldn't share in equally, that would be treating shareholders unequally, and as a general shareholder I would object.

A special long-time shareholder's vehicle would, I assume, have a market value greater than the non-special equivalent vehicle and would be an unequal benefit. All I know of that goes to people who show an interest in a company by attending annual meetings is, roughly, sandwiches and sometimes a bag of the company product, like oatmeal.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Question for the TMC hive mind

Is there anything legally prevents a company from providing a special product purchase option to customers based on the length of time they have held stock ?

For example : Could Tesla offer a limited edition Plaid Y ( kind of like a signature edition or founders series; but with more performance - say with the Plaid big carbon brakes and Plaid motors ) from Giga Austin, and allow HODL’ers to be first in line to reserve it based on the length of time shares have been held ?

I’d even be ok with a 0-60 time of 2.069 seconds (for now until Elon one ups Plaid) so as not to cannibalize S Plaid sales

As ever, virtue is its own reward. Or not.

 

[Discoducky]

2022 is going to be the year of 4680s and CT, but also, Tesla is going to be mainstream with Austin and Berlin ramping to support these 2022 production predictions.

Maybe we'll see Austin saturate Model Y demand at some point? Who knows!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477356585319948290

 

[Silentk]

Happy New Year to all. Came across this paragraph in a book (The Man from the Future) about John von Neumann, genius mathematician and pioneer in game theory as well as one of the conceptual inventors of the digital computer (biography here John von Neumann: Life, Work, and Legacy) and thought it had the ring of a certain Mr Musk about it:

 

[SOULPEDL]

I fully agree. I have had FSD beta for about a week. As it is with my Tesla investment, being allowed to play a small part in this grand project is a wonderful gift.

True that, plus it's fun!

I was literally pitching FSD Beta at midnight (sober) in the rain (part of my job description). No other cars around... Point being, 3 of us entered the vehicle in 2021, let it drive around on voice command, then exited the vehicle in 2022. A time machine indeed! Doc, was that you?

We were so into it, we completely missed the countdown at midnight, lol. Arrived back to the party at 12:07 AM. Will never forget that ride. We saw some big fireworks on the drive, but still none of use caught on. The family went on to argue Model Y or Model 3 for their 19 year old (kids were insisting on a 3).