Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbM3]

Very nice analysis on Tesla margins

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477334199279525895

 

[FireMedic]

While it’s nice that technical indicators are trending towards a buy TSLA signal, I snickered at the following:

“….shares pulled back modestly in tight fashion, ending the week just below the 50-day line. On a weekly chart, it now has handle, giving it a 1,119.10 buy point with a double-bottom base.”

I mean, it seems like $1,060 is a better buy point?

That’s why these “savvy traders” don’t own TSLA; every time there’s a good technical setup…it runs away from them.

The underlying business potential and growth is just too strong to allow for P/E and squiggly line stuff to be desirable enough.

TESLA (and AAPL) are perfect examples of believing in a visionary leader and the importance of superior products paving the way for retail investors to have the edge over “savvy traders”. For this reason my first Tesla and to a lesser extent, my first iPhone were the most important purchases of my life.

 

[RobDickinson]

So Tesla hit 452% growth in New Zealand this year vs last. Helped a lot by a substantial local rebate, and the ability to actually deliver cars...

 

[The Accountant]

Very nice analysis on Tesla margins

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477334199279525895

Thanks for sharing. Consensus estimates are moving up but they are still low.
2022 for Example:
Revenues $72.8B consensus vs my current estimate of $88.8B
Gross Profit $18.6B consensus vs my current estimate of $23.9B
Operating Profit $9.6B consensus vs my current estimate of $16.1B
Note: my estimates for 2022 are based on 1.5m vehicles delivered.

In fact, the consensus numbers for 2023 are more aligned for what I have in 2022. Consensus is a year behind.

 

[AudubonB]

They also lift because tire scrubbing is something fierce on those vehicles. The tires in the middle axles are literally dragged across the pavement when turning.

That was an inexcusable lacuna on my part - I think of tire scrubbing all the time with regards to 3-axle trailers, but of course you're right: it would be either the same or even worse for such a pickup truck.

 

[2daMoon]

That was an inexcusable lacuna on my part - I think of tire scrubbing all the time with regards to 3-axle trailers, but of course you're right: it would be either the same or even worse for such a pickup truck.

Well, yeah, unless the vehicle had something really crazy, like, say, steerable rear wheels.

 

[AudubonB]

Are we on the same forum?

MOSTLY harmless......

 

[juanmedina]

Track mode is coming to the Plaid, I can't wait:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477495977569357825

 

[Jack6591]

In the simplest terms, Elon’s problem is battery supply. In the coming months/year Tesla will have the financial means to solve battery production.

It begs the question. How will Tesla do it?

 

[dhanson865]

still waiting for the day I can get a powerwall here really hoping to see Tesla expanding into TN in 2022...

 

[Buckminster]

In the simplest terms, Elon’s problem is battery supply. In the coming months/year Tesla will have the financial means to solve battery production.

It begs the question. How will Tesla do it?

I maybe oversimplifying but I don't think we need to look further than 4680s.

1. Fewer cells to manufacture by Tesla and the suppliers
2. Tesla will buy every bit of Lithium, Nickel etc. in sight for years down the road (unlike every other manufacturer in history who use JIT - just in time)
3. Automated - no longer dependant on hiring and training

 

[Buckminster]

I have low expectations for TSAL, STLA…

Yup, everything except Telsa is for loosers.

 

[insaneoctane]

So... These were our stock price predictions for year end, made in March. The stock closed at $1,056.78 for 2021. If I'm not mistaken, @cjkosh was closest at $1065.00. Shoutout to @Sofie , @Buckminster,@Chenkers who were also pretty close (within $100 which is nothing for TSLA)! A few were pretty close but a bit pessimistic as well. Happy New Year to all and well done for holding TSLA - to a successful 2022.

I think I am closest using the Price is Right rules....

 

[dl003]

Yup, everything except Telsa is for loosers.

STAL - Starlink?

 

[Bet TSLA]

Apparently Starlink dishes are subject to being ICEd (in a sense) too. I suppose that whether this is a design error or a design goal depends on who you believe is in charge of the simulation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1476985855981993984

 

[insaneoctane]

Super excited for 2022. Just got back in town from Christmas vacation. While on the opposite coast as my Tesla, I upgraded to the latest firmware via the app. Upon returning home and playing with the latest firmware, I'm tickled by the new lightshow. It's fun, and all the kids and any nearby neighbors are enamored by it. Tesla really gets it. The lightshow just sells these cars because it's fun and just so unique. Then I drove with the latest FSD 10.8. It is showing noticeable progress. That's really the only thing I am looking for, as it's not ready for prime time yet, but it's getting better and better and it's noticeable. I'll be the first to be excited when it'll pass the wife test (wife doesn't complain about the driving/ doesn't notice I'm not driving). Love this OTA thing!

 

[redan]

No one builds as fast as Giga Shanghai. Wow:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477069646767562755

 

[transpondster]

Incase people are wondering what are the subsidies today out of China. So a 30% reduction starting 2022 is a $850 USD reduction, and the rest of the ~2000 US dollars will be phased out by 2022. So not entirely a game changer or anything but you know, it may pull something forward.

and let's not forget only Model 3 (SR+) gets subsidy, Y never was eligible being >300k China Dollars

 

[Nolimits]

Thank goodness for Shanghai. They set the bar REALLY high. Berlin and Austin has a lot on their hands to meet expectations, let alone exceed them.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Not sure of deliveries being pulled in… Elon mentioned Q4 is the beginning of the unwinding of the wave.

Case in point: until yesterday my Model S estimated delivery was “Dec 29-31”. I received an email from my delivery manager last week asking if I had a trade-in. I responded no, and that I would like to take delivery this year and pay cash. Not heard back from him since. Today, estimated delivery got changed to “Jan 1-10”.

And now the estimated delivery jumped from “Jan 1-10” to “Mar 20-31” … sigh

I am starting to wonder if there is a major supply issue with Model S, and fear the delivery numbers for Q4 are going to be bad (for Model S at least). Anyone else with an S reservation seen the same jump in estimated delivery date?

I also have to say, Tesla’s communication around this is extremely poor. Got one call, one text, and one email saying to get ready for taking delivery, and then complete silence, despite multiple out reach from my part. Communication continues to be a weak spot in Tesla’s operation.