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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Front fascia has already been leaked:

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Seeing a lot of concern that "hedgies and MM's are in control". There's no chance in hell these people are dumb enough to stand in front of the 4Q earnings steamroller.

This is an effort to protect 1200 this week. I bet it'll just repeat next week as well. They can maybe swing it through 1/14, but the tops gonna blow eventually.

I don't see this pushdown effort being maintained to the point we close under 1150 this week.
 
Seeing a lot of concern that "hedgies and MM's are in control". There's no chance in hell these people are dumb enough to stand in front of the 4Q earnings steamroller.

This is an effort to protect 1200 this week. I bet it'll just repeat next week as well. They can maybe swing it through 1/14, but the tops gonna blow eventually.

I don't see this pushdown effort being maintained to the point we close under 1150 this week.
Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Plus, most of them are stupid. They will drop their last penny for their cause regardless of the costs.
 
I've got to believe Redwood is Tesla's ace up their sleeve for the mid 20s when supply material constraints hit the industry.

Maybe. There would have to be a whole lot of recycled cell phone and laptop batteries for it to be very significant. When EV's are growing exponentially, recycling batteries from 10+ year old EV's will simply not provide a meaningful amount of material, relative to production volumes that have been growing exponentially for a decade or more. On the bright side, many of those older batteries will be particularly rich in certain elements (like cobalt) that have been drastically reduced in more modern formulations.

Of course, every little bit helps.
 
A couple months ago there was a lot of talk about TSLA at $1,000 being an indication the stock had been far outpacing the fundamentals on a frenzy of hype and gamma squeeze buying.

We just had a quarter that will yield profit (EBIT) of $2.5-3.5 billion in EBIT this quarter, which is $10-14 billion annualized. Split the middle and call it expected annualized earnings of $12 billion.

BEFORE the Shanghai expansion, Giga Berlin and Giga Austin all enter the show.

They are growing production and margins at such an outrageous pace that a price to EBIT ratio of at least 100 is reasonable.

$12 B * 100 / 1.1 B shares = $1,090

The current fundamentals already have largely caught up with the stock price.
 
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A couple months ago there was a lot of talk about TSLA at $1,000 being an indication the stock had been far outpacing the fundamentals on a frenzy of hype and gamma squeeze buying.

We just had a quarter that will yield profit (EBIT) of $2.5-3.5 billion in EBIT this quarter, which is $10-14 billion annualized. Split the middle and call it expected annualized earnings of $12 billion.

BEFORE the Shanghai expansion, Giga Berlin and Giga Austin all enter the show.

They are growing production and margins at such an outrageous pace that a price to EBIT ratio of at least 100 is reasonable.

$12 B * 100 / 1.1 B shares = $1,090

The current fundamentals already have largely caught up with the stock price.
And to add to this, they have accomplished this while constructing the world's top two most technologically advanced and largest production capacity automotive factories with world record construction speed, and they spent only a few billion dollars in CapEx doing so.

And operating expenses have flatlined for a year now. This has been pure unadulterated leverage thus far in 2021.

Earnings and deliveries in 2022 will astonish the whole world. 2022 will have a quarter where Tesla sells more total cars than the leader of the EV revolution, GM, who delivered 440k vehicles this quarter. Tesla *is* the "Big Dog" now.

Operating margins will be pushing 25+% by the end of the year. Profits will be $20-40 billion annualized depending on how fast the Berlin and Austin ramps go. I would not be surprised to see a $3,000 share price this time in 2023.

Please buckle your seatbelt and ensure that your shares and call options are securely stored in the overhead bins before launch. ✨🚀✨
 
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And to add to this, they have accomplished this while constructing the world's top two most technologically advanced and largest production capacity automotive factories with world record construction speed, and they spent only a few billion dollars in CapEx doing so.
I think they've earned enough in reg credits to at least pay for one; no?
 
Understand your limitations more than anything, if you suck at trading Tesla... don't. Just HODL. If you're great at trading Tesla, there is a good amount of money on the table. Will take a lot of work though. I feel like I'm a fairly good trader, and Tesla can still give me fits in short term movements.
I find that when everyone gets snippy on here, then it's usually a good time to buy.
 
One less thing to deal with…