Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

I think there is some merit in the argument that crediting customers for power sent back to the grid at full retail rates is unsustainable for the utilities.

At this point in time, retail net metering is actually under-compensating homeowners for juice they send to the grid. Nearly all markets have their demand peak in the afternoon when solar produces most. Utilities are buying wholesale supply that's often higher than the retail rate charged to homeowners.

Not only that, but shaving the peak means new power plants don't need to be added, which saves ratepayers money too.

We're in a shakeout period now on our way to decentralized pricing that simply operates on supply and demand. What do we think a homeowner with solar and a powerwall today could be charging if that were the setup? Probably more than the retail net metering rate on average.

A big study was done on all this in Nevada when Buffetts NVEnergy tried to drive solar off the grid.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Totally agree. Let’s not become an echo chamber of all things good about Tesla. Great cars, great tech, great company and a great leader. But keeping it real is important.

You think a Siberian heat pump FUD article taking up 20 pages of nonsense posting is "keeping it real"? The press is NOT real.

 

[RobDickinson]

He's not going to Berlin until they have sorted out the rave cave.

That or have production safe model Y to collect him from the airport.

 

[dhanson865]

Yep, you definitely have to wait for the conditions to be right. As a former resident of Fairbanks AK, it only got below -30 a few weeks out of the year and it doesn’t actually snow that often.

OT: ICE vehicles have a ton of drawbacks in extremely cold weather, as pointed out by Krugerrand. Fairbanks winters have some of the worst air quality in the world because of ICE exhaust (and wood furnace) fumes that hang in the air trapped by a thermal inversion layer and no wind. Most parking lots have 120v outlets called “head bolt heaters” where you have to plug in your car so it will start again. My car had a block and transmission heater. Some cars also had battery heaters. The combination of battery voltage dropping & very thick engine oil made it very hard to start without plugging in, especially diesels. It was very common to see cars left running in parking lots, further adding to the air quality problem.

I still remember a video of a worker up north with a diesel work truck (not a small vehicle) and trailers (think between cargo container and prefab home quality, not a trailer that you haul) to sleep in.

The thing that sticks in my mind is at the end of his day he would drain the oil out of the engine. Take the oil inside the trailer and set it beside his bed. If he left the oil out overnight the vehicle couldn't start. So every morning he had to fill the engine oil back up before starting the deisel and then it ran (engine running non stop) from the time he started work until the time he was done for the day.

 

[VValleyEV]

At this point in time, retail net metering is actually under-compensating homeowners for juice they send to the grid. Nearly all markets have their demand peak in the afternoon when solar produces most. Utilities are buying wholesale supply that's often higher than the retail rate charged to homeowners.

Not only that, but shaving the peak means new power plants don't need to be added, which saves ratepayers money too.

We're in a shakeout period now on our way to decentralized pricing that simply operates on supply and demand. What do we think a homeowner with solar and a powerwall today could be charging if that were the setup? Probably more than the retail net metering rate on average.

A big study was done on all this in Nevada when Buffetts NVEnergy tried to drive solar off the grid.

Very interesting, thanks.

Any ideas about incentives for battery storage, specifically that a net metering credit to me at full retail rates eliminates economic incentive for installing battery storage? It seems to me that the utility is acting as my storage battery at no charge. If that retail rate credit they are giving me is actually a deal for them because they would pay even more at wholesale for peaker plants, I guess everybody wins, but still seems like higher adoption of battery storage would lots on grid costs [EDIT}, and be good for my investment in TSLA …

Can you post a link to the Nevada study?

 

[ggr]

Mod: Heat pump discussion ends here. The same words, tweets and pictures keep getting repeated. We Mods left it for two reasons:
1. It was initially relevant to potential costs and sales of Tesla, and hence price and movement of $TSLA.
2. We have lives too, and it's quite hard work sorting out meaningful from non-meaningful, especially when cleaning up other obviously off-topic stuff.
(3. If you needed proof, this proves that we don't just delete negative stuff.)

But what needs to be said has been said. If you have to have your say, do it in another thread, you could even create it! --ggr

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Soo.. why is this the first winter we are seeing this problem, in these numbers?

It's funny how these things happen in bunches. Remember when rebar was puncturing battery packs every couple of weeks for a few months?

 

[Speedr117]

The comparison with Amazon was instructive. Tesla‘s growth is huge for a company this big. And as it grows, it derisks since local issues don’t affect it as much.

I would opine that the growth is predicated on continued battery cell cost reduction. As Tesla grows in sales, it must sell cheaper cars, no other option long term. Thats the biggest risk in these forecasts IMHO. Tesla obviously knows this, that’s what Battery Day was all about. So if you think Tesla will be able to drive cell costs down, and their mine off take agreements, dry electrode tech, LFP chemistry, and structural battery pack are all steps in that direction, then it should be smooth sailing to $4,000/share.

Don't forget about the lower cost to build the car due to the cast front and rear parts. I'd imagine the front cast will increase margins like the decrease in battery costs will (due to the 4680). Also not often mentioned, but if Tesla is making their own batteries, then they don't need to pay profits to a third party either!

 

[15Peter20]

Mod: Heat pump discussion ends here. The same words, tweets and pictures keep getting repeated. We Mods left it for two reasons:
1. It was initially relevant to potential costs and sales of Tesla, and hence price and movement of $TSLA.
2. We have lives too, and it's quite hard work sorting out meaningful from non-meaningful, especially when cleaning up other obviously off-topic stuff.
(3. If you needed proof, this proves that we don't just delete negative stuff.)

But what needs to be said has been said. If you have to have your say, do it in another thread, you could even create it! --ggr

Bet I’m not the first one to see your sig at the end of mod comments and read ‘grrrrrr’.

 

[Speedr117]

The ONLY big news on Friday was Elon was going to be in Berlin this week end....
Where is Elon?

Sawyer tweeted, then deleted that reference. Then the twitter feed that tracks Elon's plane said there was some data issue and it would be manually updated...which is wasn't. So I think the fix is in (or maybe they were politely asked not to share...via a lawyer). I'm personally happy, since it does get a little intrusive and borderline stalking sometimes. We'll know all in 9 days, and it's not if there will be good news, just how much of it!

 

[Sofie]

Sure we have earnings coming up and a lot of great things ahead in the very imminent forecast here, but I can’t help but have this strong sense that something amazing is on the verge of happening here real soon. Maybe it’s just my positive outlook and excitement because of all this company is doing that we know so much about or maybe it’s intuition of something else coming that we don’t quite know all the details of yet but it’s all about to burst.
Anyone else feeling this way lately or just me? Lol

 

[RobDickinson]

Troy is forecasting 333,000 for Q1 so far.

Thats 90% of 2019's entire production. In Q1...

 

[Jack6591]

And so it begins…

Renault's higher-value brands focus pays off in 2021

A solid performance by Renault's higher-value brands helped soften an overall drop in annual worldwide group sales at the French carmaker, as its focus on more profitable models pays off.

www.reuters.com

Renault, whose Chief Executive Luca de Meo has moved from a strategy of chasing volume to creating value, said sales of passenger cars and light vehicles fell 4.5% to 2,696,401 units.

 

[EVMeister]

According to this article, Elon is due to be transported in a Model Y Performance made in Giga Berlin when he visits the country (hopefully this week).

Elon Musk to be transported in Tesla Model Y made at Giga Berlin when he visits Germany, hopefully later this week [Update]

Tesla CEO Elon Musk was supposed to land in Germany over the weekend to visit Giga Berlin. The trip was reportedly to be made ahead of the factory’s official opening. Unfortunately that didn’t happen. According […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The ONLY big news on Friday was Elon was going to be in Berlin this week end....
Where is Elon?

The factory opening was cancelled again for the 583rd time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

... FSD speculation ... mods allow that, because it's positive about Tesla.

No, the "mods allow that" because Elon said specifically at the 2019 AGM that if he was a Tesla investor, there are two things he would pay attention to: (I posted the video w. the transcript here on TMC at the time)

1. Batteries
2. FSD

Business implications of FSD belong here in main, and that invariably means discussing technical progress in order to gauge the status of the project, thus its future value discounted to the present.

 

[Thekiwi]

for all the iPhone owners longing for Carplay in their tesla:

Developer Showcases Apple CarPlay Workaround for Teslas

A Tesla Model 3 owner has resorted to a workaround to implement Apple CarPlay in his vehicle, amid no sign of official support from Tesla (via Tesla...

www.macrumors.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

I would opine that the growth is predicated on continued battery cell cost reduction. As Tesla grows in sales, it must sell cheaper cars, no other option long term. Thats the biggest risk in these forecasts IMHO. Tesla obviously knows this, that’s what Battery Day was all about. So if you think Tesla will be able to drive cell costs down, and their mine off take agreements, dry electrode tech, LFP chemistry, and structural battery pack are all steps in that direction, then it should be smooth sailing to $4,000/share.

All of that tech only matters for continuing cost reductions in existing Models, and the upcoming Semi, Cybertruck and Roadster. Admittedly important products, but NOT the long-term growth you are referreing to (ie: how we get from 5M/yr to 20M/yr).

The answer to that is already known: LFP batteries. Costs are estimated right not to be $80/KWh for CATL/Model 2 packs and potentially $68 KW/h for BYD/Blade battery packs for the upcoming $25K compact car (a.k.a. Model 2).

Model 2 takes us from 5M/yr to 10M/yr. Model 1/Robotaxi takes us to 20M/yr. None of these depend upon Tesla DBE, or creating their own LFP cells. Structural packs are already being sold by BYD, and are relatively simply to engineer with prismatic LFP cells. Tesla's efforts in battery development have two primary objectives IMO:

1. expanding the battery performance envelope (leading to aviation-capable tech within 10 years)
2. cost control for mass production to drive the ramp-down in supplier prices as production expands

This enables TSLA's growth beyond $4K/share to $20K+/share (in concert with Model 1/ FSD tech)

Cheers!

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Elon said specifically at the 2019 AGM that if he was a Tesla investor, there are two things he would pay attention to:

1. Batteries
2. FSD

Well, I hope the fact that he said this in 2019 explains why Elon snubbed @The Accountant with this statement.

 

[Thekiwi]

All of that tech only matters for continuing cost reductions in existing Models, and the upcoming Semi, Cybertruck and Roadster. Admittedly important products, but NOT the long-term growth you are referreing to (ie: how we get from 5M/yr to 20M/yr).

The answer to that is already known: LFP batteries. Costs are estimated right not to be $80/KWh for CATL/Model 2 packs and potentially $68 KW/h for BYD/Blade battery packs for the upcoming $25K compact car (a.k.a. Model 2).

Model 2 takes us from 5M/yr to 10M/yr. Model 1/Robotaxi takes us to 20M/yr. None of these depend upon Tesla DBE, or creating their own LFP cells. Structural packs are already being sold by BYD, and are relatively simply to engineer with prismatic LFP cells. Tesla's efforts in battery development have two primary objectives IMO:

1. expanding the battery performance envelope (leading to aviation-capable tech within 10 years)
2. cost control for mass production to drive the ramp-down in supplier prices as production expands

This enables TSLA's growth beyond $4K/share to $20K+/share (in concert with Model 1/ FSD tech)

Cheers!

I dont think you meant to imply this, but your post makes it sound like Tesla has no advantage in battery costs since they can presently source cheap cells/packs from CATL & BYD. (I presume DBE would still lower teslas in-house cell cost below these suppliers prices though, especially due tot eh elimination of the suppliers profit margin)

I guess that could be true, while at the same time Tesla would still enjoy a cost per mile range advantage due to superior motors/battery management and car production efficeincies for aero/weight/cost.