"En masse" in Russia....Hmmm As far as I know Model Y isnt sold in Russia. So doubt that umm "En masse" exists to happen "En masse"
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Common as in it's a common problem/issue that arises in certain situations across all cars that have compressors and that it's not just a Tesla specific thing. Not that it's a common issue with compressors.
That thread is a couple days old and when I saw it, I went through the thread, came across some posts showing other car's compressors showing the same internal damage, did some searching on my own and was able to find non-tesla other examples of internal damage.
ah, I see. Well, it seems my memory has failed me in this instance then because I swear there was a video of Sandy Munro tearing apart one of the first Model Ys and he suggested they add in a heat pump....don't have time right now to go back and search for that specific video....good to know though. thanks.
navguy12
Active Member
IMO the cold room would reduce the lead time in developing any changes to existing designs AND avoid the unnecessary friction of having paying customers go through unexpected cold weather operating issues.
One anecdote that comes to mind was the first winter (2017/2018) that a small number of Model 3s were in the wild (sorry no link): some chap in the Dakotas (or that area of the US) had his car inoperable after parking overnight at some hotel next to a freeway when it was below -18c. After the whole experience, a single line of code was found that (something) should have reacted differently to prevent essentially bricking the car.
Other first winter for Model 3 (2018/2019) things come to mind as they happened to me, including the frozen charge cord (after freezing rain) and the frozen windows not dropping to clear the chrome trim.
As a fanboy driving a low VIN, I shrugged it all off…but now Tesla is wearing grownup pants and these recent cold weather issues would have surfaced in the controlled environment of a cold room.
The mere fact that these recent issues have occurred prove that the current cold weather beta testing program is not sufficient.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Even better idea, you can just skip all the posts on the weekend with one click.
navguy12
Active Member
FWIW: the article states the temperature was only (converted from °f) -12C for the day the author was there.
I updated my 5 Year Forecast in a separate thread (linked at the bottom of this post).
Here are my price targets from this exercise as compared to my last forecast:
View attachment 756636
I like to compare my numbers to Amazon's 2015 - 2020 period as this is when Amazon first consistently delivered profits.
Here are some comparison of my forecast to Amazon's 2015-2020 run:
GAAP EPS and P/E Multiple
View attachment 756638
Sales Growth & Operating Income Margins
View attachment 756639
Free Cash Flow
View attachment 756640
For more details on my 5 year forecast, see the 8 posts in this thread:
Tesla Valuation Based on 5 Year Outlook
Great set of numbers. I should just quit my job now :). Why do residential solar roof sites increase to 1.2m/yr in 2023 before dropping back to 50k/yr from 2024 onwards? Ooops. I made a silly and overwrote the equation in the MW-table that was driven by the #-table. So the MW table is...teslamotorsclub.com
These predictions make me smile, although I personally think the share price will increase slower than this. Partly because I feel margin increases will level off a tad, but mostly because I can't imagine my personal wealth increasing this much that quickly!!!
If you are right Tesla will pass Apple's valuation within the next 2-3 years, and that just feels too fast to me. Of course I'd be happy if you are right and I am wrong!
Cold weather testing isn’t as easy as dialing the temperature down. You’ve got freeze/thaw cycles, humidity variations, various formulations of road slush (want rock salt with that?), wind, snow, hail, freezing rain, etc.
You can’t test for everything, and occasionally things will slip through the cracks as it were. ICE manufacturers have these types of problems too, they just aren’t front page news. The amount of attention paid to Tesla is insane…
You can’t test for everything, and occasionally things will slip through the cracks as it were. ICE manufacturers have these types of problems too, they just aren’t front page news. The amount of attention paid to Tesla is insane…
If you are right Tesla will pass Apple's valuation within the next 2-3 years, and that just feels too fast to me. Of course I'd be happy if you are right and I am wrong!
The comparison with Amazon was instructive. Tesla‘s growth is huge for a company this big. And as it grows, it derisks since local issues don’t affect it as much.
I would opine that the growth is predicated on continued battery cell cost reduction. As Tesla grows in sales, it must sell cheaper cars, no other option long term. Thats the biggest risk in these forecasts IMHO. Tesla obviously knows this, that’s what Battery Day was all about. So if you think Tesla will be able to drive cell costs down, and their mine off take agreements, dry electrode tech, LFP chemistry, and structural battery pack are all steps in that direction, then it should be smooth sailing to $4,000/share.
The Accountant
Active Member
These predictions make me smile, although I personally think the share price will increase slower than this. Partly because I feel margin increases will level off a tad, but mostly because I can't imagine my personal wealth increasing this much that quickly!!!
If you are right Tesla will pass Apple's valuation within the next 2-3 years, and that just feels too fast to me. Of course I'd be happy if you are right and I am wrong!
I know how you feel. The financials and valuation can seem too high when we look at where we stand today.
However, I really take my emotions out of the process when I compute these numbers.
I stick with the math (i.e. units x average selling price, etc, etc). All Tesla has to do is execute on their auto and energy storage plans. I assume no Robo-Taxi and no new AI products. Keep doing what they are doing now . . . expand the product line and expand their territory markets and we get to over $4,000 per share by 2026 (barring any black swan macro event).
I have to confess, I prefer The Accountants posts over heat pump or politically related posts.
Just to note, @The Accountant 's operating margin assessments are somewhat conservative. Note that he's posting operating margin, not gross. Gross margin could level off after Q4 and not grow anymore and operating margin will still likely increase faster than what he's predicting here.These predictions make me smile, although I personally think the share price will increase slower than this. Partly because I feel margin increases will level off a tad, but mostly because I can't imagine my personal wealth increasing this much that quickly!!!
If you are right Tesla will pass Apple's valuation within the next 2-3 years, and that just feels too fast to me. Of course I'd be happy if you are right and I am wrong!
Gross margin can level off and simply due to Shanghai continuing it's expansion, Fremont expanding, and Berlin/Austin getting to 1 million production each will send operating margin to the 25% range thanks to operational leverage .
We're getting greater than Amazon level growth percentage with Apple like margins...........very nice
Last edited:
Yep, you definitely have to wait for the conditions to be right. As a former resident of Fairbanks AK, it only got below -30 a few weeks out of the year and it doesn’t actually snow that often.
OT: ICE vehicles have a ton of drawbacks in extremely cold weather, as pointed out by Krugerrand. Fairbanks winters have some of the worst air quality in the world because of ICE exhaust (and wood furnace) fumes that hang in the air trapped by a thermal inversion layer and no wind. Most parking lots have 120v outlets called “head bolt heaters” where you have to plug in your car so it will start again. My car had a block and transmission heater. Some cars also had battery heaters. The combination of battery voltage dropping & very thick engine oil made it very hard to start without plugging in, especially diesels. It was very common to see cars left running in parking lots, further adding to the air quality problem.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
All that, plus, exponential growth ain't natural for the human brain to wrap around without some nudging.
Paracelsus
Active Member
I was sent this today from an Energy Efficiency Engineer colleague that also found it a very well written, very informative, and very concerning summary of the current threat to California residential solar from a very informed source. Since many here might be behind a NYT paywall as I am, I am posting the article and the link. If mods determine the article must be removed from my post I ask that the link remain for its relevance to recent discussions:
www.nytimes.com
Opinion | Schwarzenegger: We Put Solar Panels on 1 Million Roofs in California. That Win Is Now Under Threat.
Removing incentives to encourage homeowners to install solar panels is a bad idea.
With all the extended weekend snippiness on this thread, we should start a “TMC-VIX” criteria that measures the group’s level of fear, uncertainty, stress, volatility, and risk. Seems pretty high right now. Might be a buy signal 
.
.Great work and thank you. Love all this but I have some concerns about CA solar issue and it's related impact both on residential storage and other states as well. Hopefully this all gets resolved.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I'd like to suggest that the growth isn't necessarily predicated on continued battery cell cost reduction as much as on battery cell availability. @The Accountant will need to comment, but without the cell cost reduction, margins might not get as high, but just extrapolating the current batteries still delivers much of the story.
FEERSUMENDJIN
Member
Pictures from Russia: Jeessh, says it all. No evidence from credible source (yet) of the compressor failing. I thought the issue was just that the turned itself off due to the wrong temperature of air going passed when the vent sticks. The combination of software logic change (syntax on probability of air vent temperature validity vs external temperature), user cleaning vents, and potentially adding a defrost action into place for the vent assembly would be good.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
