Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WADan]

Tesla's market cap is much too high relative to the opportunity set in front of it and its current financial profile.

Why Tesla Is the 1 Stock I'd Avoid in 2022 | The Motley Fool

The stock has been a big winner over the past five years, but expectations are too high for this company going forward.

www.fool.com

What do you’all say? Typical skeptical reasoning?

 

[bkp_duke]

Battery Plant info ... strange that Tesla battery plants are not on DOE list ... they must be assuming Austin is already complete ... will be interesting to see if any of these dates are met by OEM s

Planned Battery Plants US

Doesn't fit the narrative of the current administration. They (the DOE) will die before they mention Tesla in any kind of positive light.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

A bunch of us in the UK just got our Model Y pick up dates confirmed in early February.
Watch the delivery numbers grow throughout the quarter. That model is going to sell loads here.

 

[FS_FRA]

Water secured!

Landesregierung: Wasservorrat rund um Tesla gesichert - WELT

Umweltverbände klagen gegen eine Genehmigung zur Wasserförderung in einer Region, in der auch die neue Tesla-Fabrik liegt. Der Wasserverband sieht deshalb die Trinkwassermenge in Gefahr. Die Landesregierung sagt, warum sie das anders sieht.

www.welt.de

Brandenburg govt confirms water supply for Tesla Giga Factory is secured.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla's market cap is much too high relative to the opportunity set in front of it and its current financial profile.

Why Tesla Is the 1 Stock I'd Avoid in 2022 | The Motley Fool

The stock has been a big winner over the past five years, but expectations are too high for this company going forward.

www.fool.com

What do you’all say? Typical skeptical reasoning?

Are you actually expecting anyone here to give this a second thought? Author can't even get his numbers right.

"Tesla, the biggest pure-play EV maker, is seeing just shy of 10% operating margins on $47 billion in revenue. Given the reduction in manufacturing complications of a battery pack versus an internal combustion engine, EV makers may achieve better operating margins than 11% at scale. But they still require bending metal to succeed, so the likelihood they will be much higher than 11% on average over the long term seems unlikely."

Likelihood of margins being higher than 11% for Tesla in the long term? Seems pretty likely considering they're already at 14.6% operating margin as of Q3 earnings.

 

[Discoducky]

For me this is a required viewing...

Registration is free and it won't be recorded due to Jeff's request: Electric Vehicle Society - Canada Talks Electric Cars Webinar Episode #21 - "Recent Advancements to a Million Mile Battery"

Jeff Dahn will talk and describe recent advances in batteries work Feb 1st 4:30pm Pacific

EDIT: Corrected time to 4:30pm, thx @MP3Mike !

 

[MP3Mike]

Jeff Dahn will talk and describe recent advances in batteries work Feb 1st 7:30pm Pacific

Minor correction: it is at 4:30 PM Pacific, 7:30 PM Eastern...

 

[Oveeus]

Added another 50 shares at 1012 average.

I think this whole treasury rising is being blown out of proportion. It might make some difference for companies who are deep in debt and need it and it becomes harder and more costly to service their debts.

With TSLA having 20B+ in the warchest and generating free cash flow for many quarters already, TSLA is unlikely to be affected by rate rising in the short to mid term.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

In Tobi Lindh´s latest timelapse drone video you can see the parking lot where they store freshly produced cars filling up. Around 2:20 they start a new row of cars on the left (first car arriving there):

View attachment 757465

Later after going around the whole building the drone returns and you can see the lot from the other side at 20:37:

View attachment 757466

I count 12 cars in that row.

Assuming they are putting cars there as they produce them (and not moving from some other storage area), that would be a rate of 11 cars in about 19 minutes or 1:40 minutes per car. Would be pretty good that early (Shanghai doing something like 40 seconds per car IIRC) but take it with a grain of salt.

Sorry to pour cold water on this but the video is timelapse, so the time per car is 1:40 x whatever the timelapse rate is.

Shanghai is doing around 1 Y every 40 seconds but they have 2 lines operating.

 

[Skryll]

Added another 50 shares at 1012 average.

I think this whole treasury rising is being blown out of proportion. It might make some difference for companies who are deep in debt and need it and it becomes harder and more costly to service their debts.

With TSLA having 20B+ in the warchest and generating free cash flow for many quarters already, TSLA is unlikely to be affected by rate rising in the short to mid term.

The question for me is how much of investments into TSLA stock is on margin because of the huge growth potential, and how is that going to unwind with rising interest rates.

 

[Oveeus]

The question for me is how much of investments into TSLA stock is on margin because of the huge growth potential, and how is that going to unwind with rising interest rates.

I did have that in mind, so I wasn't buying anything on margin. Rather, it was some dry powder I got by selling NVDA when it hit 300. The idea was to buy NVDA back after it drops, which it did... but I find the opportunity on TSLA, at least for the Q4 result and this year guidance too hard to pass even as a short term play.

 

[adiggs]

Added another 50 shares at 1012 average.

I think this whole treasury rising is being blown out of proportion. It might make some difference for companies who are deep in debt and need it and it becomes harder and more costly to service their debts.

With TSLA having 20B+ in the warchest and generating free cash flow for many quarters already, TSLA is unlikely to be affected by rate rising in the short to mid term.

The logic in TSLA and other high tech business cases isn't the direct impact on the business. It is the impact on investors as the future value goes down as the discount rate goes up.

I also find it dramatically overblown in Tesla's case. I think we'll see a dividend before we see Tesla care about the rating on any new bond issues.

 

[FireMedic]

Are you actually expecting anyone here to give this a second thought? Author can't even get his numbers right.

"Tesla, the biggest pure-play EV maker, is seeing just shy of 10% operating margins on $47 billion in revenue. Given the reduction in manufacturing complications of a battery pack versus an internal combustion engine, EV makers may achieve better operating margins than 11% at scale. But they still require bending metal to succeed, so the likelihood they will be much higher than 11% on average over the long term seems unlikely."

Likelihood of margins being higher than 11% for Tesla in the long term? Seems pretty likely considering they're already at 14.6% operating margin as of Q3 earnings.

I’m not clicking that link. But based on your quote I would say this misunderstanding by “experts” smells like opportunity to me. The reality will become unavoidable soon enough. In the meantime; HODL and BTFD!

 

[ZeApelido]

For me this is a required viewing...

Registration is free and it won't be recorded due to Jeff's request: Electric Vehicle Society - Canada Talks Electric Cars Webinar Episode #21 - "Recent Advancements to a Million Mile Battery"

Jeff Dahn will talk and describe recent advances in batteries work Feb 1st 7:30pm Pacific

Wife: Joe, the kids are finally asleep and...what in the world are you watching?

Joe: Battery talk by Jeff Dahn! It's not gonna be recorded so have to watch it live. What are you doing?

Wife: Drafting divorce papers.

 

[FireMedic]

I have a neighbor who’s son started working at Tesla Fremont factory a few months ago (partly based on my advising him to apply) he drives a forklift on the M3 line and he loves it…he can’t shut up about how 2 of his colleagues (also forklift operators) are millionaires from their willingness to put half their paychecks into stock purchases.

He says that it’s the best job he’s ever had and that he rarely talks to anyone who isn’t “totally stoked” on the future of Tesla!

Bullish me thinks.

 

[Maarten]

Latest from Tobias Lindh

Looking at the movie of Tobias, being playback'ed at x times normal speed, makes me think of what you see when ants are busy.
Seemingly uncoordinated movements, but in the meantime very effectively building and processing..
All the cars outside show that an enormous amount of people is busy inside setting up production.
No doubt this plant will be spitting out a huge number of cars very soon.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Wife: Joe, the kids are finally asleep and...what in the world are you watching?

Joe: Battery talk by Jeff Dahn! It's not gonna be recorded so have to watch it live. What are you doing?

Wife: Drafting divorce papers.

Joe: Before you do that....let me transfer all my $TSLA into my parent's names

 

[Discoducky]

I’m not clicking that link. But based on your quote I would say this misunderstanding by “experts” smells like opportunity to me. The reality will become unavoidable soon enough. In the meantime; HODL and BTFD!

Exactly, thank goodness we'll have indisputable evidence with the Q4 earnings report...well, indisputable will most likely be disputed, but hey, progress!

 

[Unpilot]

Are you actually expecting anyone here to give this a second thought? Author can't even get his numbers right.

"Tesla, the biggest pure-play EV maker, is seeing just shy of 10% operating margins on $47 billion in revenue. Given the reduction in manufacturing complications of a battery pack versus an internal combustion engine, EV makers may achieve better operating margins than 11% at scale. But they still require bending metal to succeed, so the likelihood they will be much higher than 11% on average over the long term seems unlikely."

Likelihood of margins being higher than 11% for Tesla in the long term? Seems pretty likely considering they're already at 14.6% operating margin as of Q3 earnings.

The ONLY thing true in that article is the last word of the headline....FOOL

 

[UltradoomY]

I have a neighbor who’s son started working at Tesla Fremont factory a few months ago (partly based on my advising him to apply) he drives a forklift on the M3 line and he loves it…he can’t shut up about how 2 of his colleagues (also forklift operators) are millionaires from their willingness to put half their paychecks into stock purchases.

He says that it’s the best job he’s ever had and that he rarely talks to anyone who isn’t “totally stoked” on the future of Tesla!

Bullish me thinks.

There is something so poetic (not quoting poetry) about the forklift drivers becoming millionaires working at Tesla.
It absolutely warms my heart knowing that all that choose to get into the drivers seat with TSLA can benefit and grow while changing the future.
Kudo's to your neighbors son and all the Tesla employees making it work!