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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Every time I look at The Accountant's earning projections, I wonder why I'm not converting to LEAPs.

If we can drift all the way to Tuesday >$1050, it almost has to be done. On the extra throw-in value of a few cheap 1/28 & 3/18 YOLO's alone.

40% ITM Jan 2024 LEAPs, 50% ITM Jan 2023 LEAPs, 10% $1200c YOLO's.

No one has to guess anymore, it's just earnings and math.
I’m not converting to LEAPS because of the taxes I would have to pay selling my main position. But if the stock trade sideways for 6 months, then I will surely buy some LEAPS with the extra cash I have on hand. Instead of building my core share position which I am happy with, my be building 2024 LEAPS positions if volatility drops.
 
There is something so poetic (not quoting poetry) about the forklift drivers becoming millionaires working at Tesla.
It absolutely warms my heart knowing that all that choose to get into the drivers seat with TSLA can benefit and grow while changing the future.
Kudo's to your neighbors son and all the Tesla employees making it work!
How about a house painter that got rich thanks to Tesla stock!
 
Looks like they want it to be between 1000 and 1050 for Friday.

Today's options volume so far:
callputvol.jpg
 
I have a neighbor who’s son started working at Tesla Fremont factory a few months ago (partly based on my advising him to apply) he drives a forklift on the M3 line and he loves it…he can’t shut up about how 2 of his colleagues (also forklift operators) are millionaires from their willingness to put half their paychecks into stock purchases.

He says that it’s the best job he’s ever had and that he rarely talks to anyone who isn’t “totally stoked” on the future of Tesla!

Bullish me thinks.
The more I think about this, the more bullish I become as I lived in Austin when the Prius came to market. My engineering friends were all going into oil companies of some kind and they thought I was crazy to want a highly fuel efficient car (and yes, it wasn't the best looking car)...oh how times have changed!

I just love imagining how your friend and most likely 1000's more who are working at Giga Texas will become millionaires by investing in an electric car company.

I wonder how much it would cost to rent a billboard by Giga Texas that said something like, "Buy $TSLA stock!" with a picture of the Cybertruck :)
 
Tesla's market cap is much too high relative to the opportunity set in front of it and its current financial profile.


What do you’all say? Typical skeptical reasoning?
He might be right for a while while macros suck, but he completely ignores the actual profit numbers and fantastic growth rates Tesla has shown and is continuing. And he assigns a 10 PE when this would only happen with essentially zero growth on a profitable company. Like Toyota. Do not know when Tesla hits zero growth. 2040?

"Tesla, the biggest pure-play EV maker, is seeing just shy of 10% operating margins on $47 billion in revenue. ...the likelihood they will be much higher than 11% on average over the long term seems unlikely.

... automotive businesses require tons of capital expenditures relative to their sales just to stay afloat. For example, Toyota spent almost $35 billion on capital investments over the last 12 months. Given its profit margins, that makes it very difficult for the company to return excess cash to shareholders -- which is the only driver of shareholder value in the long run. This is why Toyota's stock historically trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at or around 10. And EV stocks will have a similar fate due to this capital intensity."


Totally ignores the fact that Toyota revenue numbers have been topped out for years and recently have been shrinking:
  • Toyota annual revenue for 2021 was $255.817B, a 7.1% decline from 2020.
  • Toyota annual revenue for 2020 was $275.356B, a 1.22% increase from 2019.
  • Toyota annual revenue for 2019 was $272.031B, a 2.88% increase from 2018.

As all auto OEMs have been. Except for one.

Not much else to say but 'we will see'.