Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVDRVN]

Wife: Joe, the kids are finally asleep and...what in the world are you watching?

Joe: Battery talk by Jeff Dahn! It's not gonna be recorded so have to watch it live. What are you doing?

Wife: Drafting divorce papers.

GF smiling as we check out her new guitar, Tesla comes up and her eyes go blank and looking at me like I'm about to be roadkill. Now keeping Tesla to small clips rather than endless ramblings. Youtube to be watched on the phone early in the am with headphones or having coffee in LR. I find my outside room makes for a good "Tesla Cave" to catch up in private. Bought way too many shares today and prob should have held back a bit more but I say that every time. Told GF many have to move in with her if this keeps up Even my brother is a shareholder now.

 

[EVDRVN]

Are you actually expecting anyone here to give this a second thought? Author can't even get his numbers right.

"Tesla, the biggest pure-play EV maker, is seeing just shy of 10% operating margins on $47 billion in revenue. Given the reduction in manufacturing complications of a battery pack versus an internal combustion engine, EV makers may achieve better operating margins than 11% at scale. But they still require bending metal to succeed, so the likelihood they will be much higher than 11% on average over the long term seems unlikely."

Likelihood of margins being higher than 11% for Tesla in the long term? Seems pretty likely considering they're already at 14.6% operating margin as of Q3 earnings.

You forgot last word in the name of the organization.

 

[generalenthu]

I wonder if we're seeing some impact from 1/21 OpEx. @generalenthu - what do you think?

yes, may be a bit of the opex action, but not a whole lot. Like I indicated, this opex is significantly smaller than last year, and volume today and yesterday is on the lower end of what we have seen in the past 2 weeks.

cant wait to get to earnings.

 

[Maarten]

Tesla's market cap is much too high relative to the opportunity set in front of it and its current financial profile.

Why Tesla Is the 1 Stock I'd Avoid in 2022 | The Motley Fool

The stock has been a big winner over the past five years, but expectations are too high for this company going forward.

www.fool.com

Rarely the url of a website corresponds so effectively with its content.

 

[generalenthu]

Someone asked up thread what Alex potter of Piper Sandler had to say. He didnt raise the price target, but updated his earnings estimates for Q4 and volume estimates for 2022. Here is the key bit. Apologies for the screen grab. can't copy text. I suppose these numbers are non-GAAP.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Sorry to pour cold water on this but the video is timelapse, so the time per car is 1:40 x whatever the timelapse rate is.

Shanghai is doing around 1 Y every 40 seconds but they have 2 lines operating.

Yeah, the Berlin timelapses almost always have cuts as well and we don't know if there is a few seconds missing or they had to fly and switch batteries and 15 min is missing. So not usable for checking speed of progress.

I do notice though that lately the number of parked cars have gone way up at the same time as there presumably being less construction workers. Looks like lots of actual Tesla employees have started work at the factory.

 

[Big Time]

Can you imagine if both factories went online the same day? Would be the most epic sibling rivalry of all time

 

[hobbes]

Sorry to pour cold water on this but the video is timelapse, so the time per car is 1:40 x whatever the timelapse rate is.

Shanghai is doing around 1 Y every 40 seconds but they have 2 lines operating.

Ooops...


Estimating a factor of 6 so time per car is around 10 minutes, thanks for pointing out the obvious...

 

[Zero CO2]

Doesn't fit the narrative of the current administration. They (the DOE) will die before they mention Tesla in any kind of positive light.

Wow imagine working at DOE:

New DOE Employee: "hey boss here is my list of new US battery plants coming online in the next few years" "

DOE Bureaucrat: "uhm ... didn't you get the one that shall not be mentioned memo "

New DOE Employee: "But boss there are thousands of articles and videos about Tesla and Gig Texas ... they even have a belt buckle on the Tesla online shop "

DOE Bureaucrat:" remove them from the list ... NOW !!!!

POTUS: " You did it Mary "

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Someone asked up thread what Alex potter of Piper Sandler had to say. He didnt raise the price target, but updated his earnings estimates for Q4 and volume estimates for 2022. Here is the key bit. Apologies for the screen grab. can't copy text. I suppose these numbers are non-GAAP.

View attachment 757502

You up your EPS by 25% and you don't up your PT? What a joke

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Can you imagine if both factories went online the same day? Would be the most epic sibling rivalry of all time

At this point, seems like Austin is already fully operational and there's no permits restricting deliveries from Austin. Seems more like Tesla is intentionally waiting to officially announce the start of production until earnings to coincide with Berlin.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Someone asked up thread what Alex potter of Piper Sandler had to say. He didnt raise the price target, but updated his earnings estimates for Q4 and volume estimates for 2022. Here is the key bit. Apologies for the screen grab. can't copy text. I suppose these numbers are non-GAAP.

View attachment 757502

Gracias.

So at the current share price of $1004, this time next year Piper sees and actual PE ratio of 82.7

At $1004 @The Accountant projects a 2022 PE of something like 70 for 2022.

And I think both estimates are conservative.

Imagine AMZN having a legit PE of 70-80 in 2015/16. Unthinkable.

 

[generalenthu]

You up your EPS by 25% and you don't up your PT? What a joke

Thats OK. I think he's primed to do that next week. I can wait.

 

[Nocturnal]

Can you imagine if both factories went online the same day? Would be the most epic sibling rivalry of all time

China vs Germany vs Texas.

Imagine AMZN having a legit PE of 70-80 in 2015/16. Unthinkable.

Too many still think legacy can do it. Or that some upstart can beat Tesla on specs. They still don't get it. Even if competitors could bring cars to market with better specs (at a profit), supply is all that will matter. Great, build 50k Mach-Es with "comparable" specs. Tesla will build 500k Model Ys.

 

[Tyler34]

Gracias.

So at the current share price of $1004, this time next year Piper sees and actual PE ratio of 82.7

At $1004 @The Accountant projects a 2022 PE of something like 70 for 2022.

And I think both estimates are conservative.

Imagine AMZN having a legit PE of 70-80 in 2015/16. Unthinkable.

The accountant has a 70 PE for 2026 not 2022

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You up your EPS by 25% and you don't up your PT? What a joke

Every time I look at The Accountant's earning projections, I wonder why I'm not converting to LEAPs.

If we can drift all the way to Tuesday >$1050, it almost has to be done. On the extra throw-in value of a few cheap 1/28 & 3/18 YOLO's alone.

40% ITM Jan 2024 LEAPs, 50% ITM Jan 2023 LEAPs, 10% $1200c YOLO's.

No one has to guess anymore, it's just earnings and math.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The accountant has a 70 PE for 2026 not 2022

No, look at that chart Accountant posted again. If the stock price were to stay where it's at, Forward P/E and thus by the end of 2022, trailing P/E would drop to 70

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The accountant has a 70 PE for 2026 not 2022

I'm taking today's share price over @The Accountants earnings projection for 2022. Just as an indicator of it's ridiculousness.

Edit: And apologies, I'm gonna endeavor to be more clear and detailed when talking out my a$$

 

[st_lopes]

Someone asked up thread what Alex potter of Piper Sandler had to say. He didnt raise the price target, but updated his earnings estimates for Q4 and volume estimates for 2022. Here is the key bit. Apologies for the screen grab. can't copy text. I suppose these numbers are non-GAAP.

View attachment 757502

He’ll update PT after Q4 earnings. That’s when his next year gets included in his DCF. I believe he only does 3 or 4 years out.

 

[mongo]

Battery Plant info ... strange that Tesla battery plants are not on DOE list ... they must be assuming Austin is already complete ... will be interesting to see if any of these dates are met by OEM s

Planned Battery Plants US

Data source does not look like it was intended to be a canonical list of all plants.
Does Toyota's new battery factory mean a new U.S. assembly plant?