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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Futures green. BTC green. Could bode well.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Macros up substantially in the early Futures session. Microsoft earnings should be good (Tue after the Close).
Nasdaq 100 Mar 22 (NQ=F)
CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
14,559.25 +132.75 (+0.92%)
As of 06:54PM EST. Market open.
We natives don't like the term "Cali", separately Knightshade is already on my block list from a year ago.
The next posters who continue a certain moronic discussion might find themselves ===>in the deep freeze<=== for a very, very long time.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
James expects Tesla to recognize the Valuation Allowance (VA) beginning in 2021 Q4 because of a quirk in tax reporting rules: only 80% of the VA (~$1.6B for Tesla) can be claimed in the 1st calendar year, and then they must wait until the following calendar year to claim their remaining 20% (roughly $400M).
James thought claiming the 1st portion in Q4 is most likely because that allows them to claim the 2nd portion (20%) in the following Quarter (2022 Q1). His reasoning for that conclusion was "why would they want to wait an entire year to claim the 2nd portion?" (that's the scenario where Tesla claims the 1st portion of the VA in 2022 Q1).
However, this was a rhetorical question on behalf of James, as he never explored why Tesla may wish to delay the 2nd portion of the VA in 2023 Q1. As with many business decisions, the answer is blazingly obvious once you ask the right question.
Tesla faces margin challenges in 2022 Q1 with the opening and intial (low volume) ramp of 2 new Giga factories. A one-time $1.6B VA may be EXACTLY what Tesla needs to compensate for lower volumes during Q1. I leave it to @The Accountant to estimate what margins would be missing during the ramp.
Then, in Q1 2023, what possible use could Tesla have for an additional one-time VA of ~$400M to cushion margins during a new factory ramp? What is the price of repurposing a dirt pile in Shanghai?
I think James needs to think again. I believe the VA will be used in Q1 of 2022 and 2023. The smart way to use the VA is to smooth out revenue and margins during new factory ramps. The alternative (claiming VA in Q4 2021/Q1 2022) just makes income bumpier, not smoother.
Cheers!
This recent market wide downturn is odd. My crystal ball says the NASDAQ composite will bounce around 13600 at lowest (+-100 or so).
At the same time, I’m not sure how we get through this transition to renewables without major disruptions in the economy.
Bottom line is, for me, the road is going to be very bumpy. A moody’s upgrade and whatever billions of dollars in pension funds etc that it brings to TSLA won’t stop the madness.
I initiated a swing trade in TSLA in my taxable on Friday at about $956. I immediately texted a friend and told them I might be able to swing out in a week but equally as likely to not be able to do it until about a year from now, for my own goals for profit.
I’ve grilled @tivoboy enough over his “bearish” prognostications, but the truth is I think he’s right about the near term. The difference for me and the rest of us is, the near term doesn’t mean much. Tesla can’t be stopped in the long run.
No strong opinion on this VA, but it would be wonderful if you got on twitter to discuss this with James. Or ever better — convince him to discuss it here!
After his Dave Lee interview, I gained a lot of respect for him. Humble, focused, and calculated in his opinions.
Favguy
Member
You're not kidding on savings! UK running costs for my current model S 75D, compared with the Audi A8 (V8) I used to own, which was of comparable size and performance (well, less, but as good as ICE gets) is currently saving me a small fortune.
Audi vs. Model S Annual costs: Fuel £3360 vs. £220 (Almost all low rate off peak
) Road Tax £600 vs. £0. Servicing £1200 vs £? (but most likely about £150 - £200) So that's a saving of over £4.7k a year!!
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
He has already done so in the financials projection thread, here's the direct link since I guess you missed it-
Near-future quarterly financial projections
While it won’t be $0 fixed cost it won’t be linear to rest of factory as major costs relating to structure, heating, electrical were all already in place. Plus it’s also likely that several parts of the production process are already capable of handling more volume without increasing capital...
teslamotorsclub.com
He actually projects margins in Q1 2022 to be down only very slightly from Q4 2021- in fact he has them higher than Q3 of 2021.
He also notes in the same post he actually expects a large margin boost in Q1 2023 due to Austin and Berlin being at full production by then.
It is the weekend, so I can say this.
We are going to be GREEN tomorrow for sure.
But NOBODY should say anything when it happens....capeesh?
We are going to be GREEN tomorrow for sure.
But NOBODY should say anything when it happens....capeesh?
The only near certainty for Monday is that at the end of the day we'll all be scratching our heads wondering WTF happened to cause the stock to do whatever it ends up doing.
Please accept my profound regrets.
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds -- Emerson.
We all knew what you meant.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You're not kidding on savings! UK running costs for my current model S 75D, compared with the Audi A8 (V8) I used to own, which was of comparable size and performance (well, less, but as good as ICE gets) is currently saving me a small fortune.
Audi vs. Model S Annual costs: Fuel £3360 vs. £220 (Almost all low rate off peak
Could you redo that savings estimate with Depreciation included? (Tesla's hold their value, Audi's ???) TIA.
Cheers!
Marc_K_inNJ
Member
Well, keep in mind that Tesla is sitting on a large amount of unrecognized FSD revenue. We are currently at FSD beta 10.9 without DOJO. If DOJO is close to being operational, there is a good chance that Elon and co will be planning (hoping) on going FSD wide release in Q1.
In that case they might want to use this VA $ now…
At least here is hoping…
The Accountant
Active Member
As @Knightshade pointed out, I do not expect a huge drop in margins in Q1 2022 with Austin/Berlin ramping. I am expecting a small drop from Q4 2021 (29.5% margins) to Q1 2002 (29.4% margins).
However, with margins flat to down, Q1 2022 results won't be earth shattering.
Let's look at the 2021 and 2022 estimated Non-GAAP EPS:
Q1 2021 - $0.93
Q2 2021 - $1.45
Q3 2021 - $1.86
Q4 2021 - $2.70 Estimate
Q1 2022 - $2.88 Estimate
Q2 2022 - $3.27 Estimate
Q3 2022 - $3.76 Estimate
Q4 2022 - $4.25 Estimate
As you can see, my $2.88 for Q1 2022 is only $0.18 higher than Q4 2021 of $2.70.
I don't think Tesla will try to time the Deferred Tax Asset Valuation to benefit any particular quarter but if they wanted to, Q1 2022 would be it.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
does nobody think that the increase of refreshed S&X sales all year are not going to help pad margins while GF4&5 ramp?
even 75k total deliveries in 2022 (50k + more than ‘21) at good ASPs is an extra 1b+ to top line every quarter.
even 75k total deliveries in 2022 (50k + more than ‘21) at good ASPs is an extra 1b+ to top line every quarter.
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