This is total non news. We already knew that inflation was up. This was simply the final annual number calculated. Really wall street reaction to this at all is simply foolish.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Now, he is starting to drift towards a highly lucrative product proposition ... pussy-cat -> sex-bot
That's what they should announce, and the stock price would jump straight to the
Lol, EV “leader” Mary Barra is trying to kill the Build Back Better act and planned EV subsidies.
Gary argues that portfolio managers expect 2022 to be great but that all the talk of FSD and bots make them lose confidence in growth for 2023 and beyond, hence the stock drop.
This requires not only that they have a long investment horizon (doubtful), but that they put zero value on various fundamentally important statements made during the call.
- 50% growth in 2022 can be achieved even without Berlin and Austin
- Berlin and Austin are already producing (another 50%+ future growth)
- More factories to be announced end 2022.
- product roadmap with future models
- FSD will be here this year
- FSD and bot will massively expand the total addressable market.
I can forgive portfolio managers for being skeptical on the last 2 points, but ignoring all other information of crucial importance simply makes no sense.
There is a simpler explanation. Like many others, he looks at the massive drop in the stock price and tries to rationalize it from something said at the earnings call. If the stock had been up ten percent it would have been easy to rationalize that too.
A bear attack is in my opinion a much simpler explanation, and it doesn’t require assumptions of exceedingly irrational investor behavior.
More proof that GM has no interest in EV adoption accelerating
Yeah see to me both of those things are exciting. From a fundamentals point of view.
There was definitely some correlation to what he said since we all saw in real time that stock popped 3.5% after Elon said "exceeding 50% yoy growth for 2022" and then all those gains fizzled out the more Elon talked about bots/delayed products/FSD being the answer for growth beyond 2024.
However the bears may have saw the opportunity and went for the jugular. Also lets not forget that bears may just be using Tesla to cause any EV related stocks to drop more (buying puts on them is probably more profitable than buying puts on Tesla). We are seeing bloody redness with EV competitors that bubbled up the last few years.
I agree completely. As a group of fanboys, we understand where EM comes from, but he completely fumbled the messages (which then completely overshadowed the unbelievable year of growth in production and profit). There is a separate medium for his aspirations like AI day, Batttery day etc…
The fanboy in all of us are coming up with all kind of excuses/rationale to ease our disappointment of the disastrous results of the Q4 call!
ZachF
Active Member
They just want that sweet sweet government cheese.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
A pop in AH means what? That 3.5% pop rooted in a handful of hedge funds buying modest chunks at the same moment can be easily overrun by a full-on bear raid.
The investor base was on edge before, during, and after the call. Clearly the case with most TMC'ers! That's why it's been so easy to drop the SP to the 200MA. Little pops on the call and slightly less hectic message delivery wouldn't have changed the gameplan or the execution.
BUY!
Phobi
Member
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
As part of my HODL Upgrade back in 2019 was included a nifty "Avert Your Gaze" button.
It came with instructions to employ this feature whenever there is volatility in the Chair Price.
I've just about wore the paint off of it. Still, I think it is one of the most useful features in the HODL package.
It came with instructions to employ this feature whenever there is volatility in the Chair Price.
I've just about wore the paint off of it. Still, I think it is one of the most useful features in the HODL package.
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The Accountant
Active Member
I am an investor in Tesla’s “Master Plan.” Elon’s statement’s have altered the path of that plan.
As a shareholder, I would like to see a full-throated, compelling, persuasive description of his vision.
As a shareholder, I would like to see a full-throated, compelling, persuasive description of his vision.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
In for another Jan 2024 $1200c @ $197
With the uptick in place and all of retail terrified we'll see what....low volume, flat trading?
With the uptick in place and all of retail terrified we'll see what....low volume, flat trading?
I think other automakers aren't standing still. The other day Hyundai said they'll release a £20,000 250 mile range car in 2025. I think battery costs have come down for all auto-makers. Kia/Hyundai released a £33,000 Kia ENiro that equalled-exceeded Tesla's Model 3 range with a super-efficient 4m/kWh and a 65kWh pack for a 270 mile real world range (330ish rated range). Meanwhile the Model Y is NOT out in the UK yet and due to come in at £50k (long range) - that's too expensive for a hatchback - and hatchback / crossovers totally dominate Europe. Tesla really needs a cheaper hatchback. The Chinese will have their own brands coming to Europe in the next year or two, some already in Norway. I think Tesla might be able to hold dominance over others in the same way Apple holds dominance over Android phones. Costs 50% more - but people loyal to Tesla will buy Tesla for the "perceived" better product. High Tesla margins, profitability. The supercharger network is a big benefit of this "perceived" benefit. I can go 15-50% in my Model 3 SR+ in about 12 minutes and expect to do so reliably - and that's fantastic for getting back on the road quickly at a location. I don't really trust the rest of the charging network to do that - yet! Anyway - I'm interested in Tesla once it stops falling - but $810 still seems pricey to me!
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Added 2 more Jan 24 1K calls and 12 shares with remaining change ... with CC monies to AAPL back to TSLA
Retail investors are buying back Tesla per Ameritrade guy on CNBC ... so that is some good news
Retail investors are buying back Tesla per Ameritrade guy on CNBC ... so that is some good news
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I don't think Elon needs to be compensated nearly as highly going forward, but I would hate to lose him. It would cause me to re-appraise my investment in a new light as to how durable the culture he creature at Tesla was.
His 20% stake in TSLA cannot, in any rational manner, be considered compensation for actual work. He bought that stake in the company with his own money he put on the line. His returns on that would be no better or worse than someone with an equivalent investment who never worked at Tesla. One of the core tenants of capitalism is productivity is rewarded. But if Elon's rewards going forward were unchanged depending upon whether he continued to contribute to the mission or decided not to contribute at all, that would violate the most important part of capitalism. That contributing your own labor is rewarded with a portion of the results. That would not be the case if his compensation did not change whether he worked or not.
Principles are important to all systems worthy of maintaining. If he decides to work for free, that is fine, but it should be his decision, not one imposed upon him by others. That sets dangerous precedents.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
... and we Opened 'zachly on top of the Lower-BB
MA(200) was $814.27 at the Open. I expect wedgies will try to tag that tgt b4 any rise occurs.
EDIT: tag! 200-day Moving Average reached at 09:39 ET
Now if macros would kindly reverse, we can do a nice gentle rise throughout the day towards a Close near one of the MMs preferred "Call Walls" (see upthread for Options Open Interest chart).
Not Advice! GLTA!
Ceres!
P.S. Apropos of nothing, Institutional buying doesn't generally start until 10:00 ET...
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