Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tivoboy]

Latest delivery windows (from a California perspective)

Model	Est Delivery
Model S	Jul
Model S Plaid	4-8 weeks
Model 3	Jun
Model 3 LR	Mar
Model 3 Perf	Mar
Model X	Jan 2023
Model X Plaid	Oct
Model Y LR	Aug
Model Y Perf	Mar

Sure seems better than was reported back in Dec anecdotally.

 

[Krugerrand]

How about you make cut the political crap?

Followed by paragraphs of, um, political crap.

You got the disagree for a lot of reasons, most of them petty. No worries, I’m content with my inner ugliness. But if the forum allowed choosing a second response I’d have added the funny choice because nothing makes me laugh harder than someone doing that which they just admonished someone else for.

 

[elasalle]

Here's what happened:

Yes, traditional money on Wall Street, funds, money managers, etc. think in a very formal, regimented, restricted manner. I call it stupid although they are not really stupid (but that is essentially how it plays out in situations like these). They have to model the most likely earnings looking forward to assign value to the shares today. They cannot model things that don't fit their model. That means any talk of humanoid robots they don't know what to do with. Any talk of FSD, they cannot put in their spreadsheet. How do you model "nutty"? But the worst part is, once Elon said the economy car was not being worked on and the Cybertruck has a somewhat nebulous timeline, they can't model revenues for those things either. And they can't understand that the market has huge ability to absorb far more Model 3's and Model Y's than current sales/production. So they can't model that many of each car model because that would make both of them the best-selling cars, period. Gas or electric Yet EV's are only 6% of global sales. They can't compute this. They think Tesla needs more car models to distribute the volume of sales Tesla is forecasting because that's how the auto industry works.

That means TSLA ownership is only for those who "get it". Meanwhile Tesla will continue to build production capacity which will result in quarter after quarter of record sales. As the new factories ramp into efficient production their margins will be crazy high because they didn't spend a bunch of money spreading their production around more models than necessary. He even told us the 4680 cells are ramping up as we speak, both in-house and at partner factories, and it flew right over the heads of those who sold/decided not to buy. Remember, it's all about the batteries.

I can't say how long it will take for the price to recover, but eventually reality will start to sink in and the price will get bid back up. My feeling is Elon purposefully disenfranchised anyone too idiotic to see what is happening right before their eyes. He really doesn't give a flying frack because he doesn't want to work for people like that (yes, he works for shareholders). He knows he is going to make a lot of people very wealthy and he thinks it's better if it goes to the kind of people he likes rather than those he despises. The beauty of all this is it didn't require anything but pure honesty from Elon. Sure, he might have hammed it up a little bit but essentially, he was giving us the straight scoop on how nutty the profits are going to be and giving the finger to those he doesn't like.

But that's not all. Elon works his magic by taking actions that solve multiple things at once. And a low share price is good for Tesla's next phase of expansion in terms of attracting talent. Elon doesn't give all this much thought because he's a visionary. He just sees the future he wants to create and takes steps that sets big things in motion, that pushes towards the desired outcome. It's not a cold, calculated, if A, then B. This is what vision is and he doesn't fret over the details. He doesn't see this in words in his mind, it happens in cascades of visions. It's the source of his particular form of magic. It's not really magic but the superior results he delivers can make it look like magic to someone who doesn't understand how he can accomplish so much, how things seem to go his way an inordinate amount of the time.

A conventionally thinking CEO judges they did a good job on a conference call if the share price rises during and after the call. Higher share price is good, right? Success! Elon takes a bigger view. He did well on the call if he sets off a chain of events that allows greater success down the road. He needs to get the dominoes lined up. Because he knows true success is not a high share price. True success is hard. It's the success that made that high share price possible and we are still in the early stages. I'm sure there is a lot more depth to his vision than I'm even aware of. He's probably killing 3 or 4 birds with one stone, Part of it might simply be because it's more fun being CEO of Tesla when he can draw out the doubters and naysayers and them give them a good slapping. He's not worried because he knows the share price will eventually take care of itself.

It's not the first time he's done this. Those who like non-volatile stocks or need some handholding on future projections can shop elsewhere, for everyone else, it's a buying opportunity. This is why I focus on the company's execution rather the share price.

Appreciate your wisdom,
one caveat. The very people who he despises are the ones making all the moolah right now
he needs to UP his game in areas such as communication. Imagine your Quarterback making fumbles all the time

+ i ain't selling a single share.

 

[Mengy]

Confession
I'll use a paragraph of your very good post to make a confession.

When the Cybertruck was revealed in Nov 2019, I was sick to my stomach watching it. I was angry at Elon for messing with my investment dollars.
The next day when the stock dropped 6%, my anger grew.
But then something changed. As I started to read and listen to different perspectives, I began to see what Elon saw all along. The Cybertruck was a game-changer . . . .and this is why I had originally invested in Tesla . . .not a "me too" company, but a Disruptor. Others started to see this too and the stock recovered (and of course has continued higher).

Now to the earnings call Wednesday. This was suppose to be a blow out quarter. I was hoping the earnings call would go the way of Nadella's Microsoft call where the stock rose during the call. . . .and then we got humanoid bots, you don't understand the value of FSD, no new products this year, etc.
I was once again angry at Elon. And when the stock dropped the next day by 12%, my anger grew.

Now that I have read and listened to other perspectives, just like with the Cybertruck reveal, my anger has gone away and I am now more bullish then ever.

Optimus: My CEO Still Has the Innovation Mojo
I learned from the call that an Optimus product launch may be sooner than I had thought. In my financial models I would have put the the launch of an AI product (other than FSD) in years 8-10. The emphasis on Optimus during the call demonstrated to me Elon's commitment to this and I now believe that a product will be revealed closer to the 4-5 year portion of my model than the 8-10 years. This is a new revenue stream with a lower reliance on battery supply than the Auto and Energy business. Now I can finally see how revenues can continue to grow 50% or higher out in years 5,6, 7.

A Focus on Execution
Extraordinary 2022 Financial Results are a certainty. Elon and Zach revealed that Shanghai and Fremont can provide 50% growth. That's 1.4m cars.
With Berlin/Austin, we can get to 1.65m . .that's 76% growth. And with no distraction from Cybertruck/Semi, the Austin ramp will surprise the most bullish investors. I had $14 non-GAAP EPS for 2022 but we can perhaps see $16 in 2022 (vs $6.78 in 2021)

FSD - Elon Wouldn't Shut Up About It
There was something different about this. This was not just Elon over-promising as in the past; we heard Elon frustrated that analysts did not understand the breakthrough and value arriving. Elon has more information on FSD than we; he sees what we can't. My gut tells me that some autonomy skeptics will start to believe in autonomy this year.

I'm feeling better today - the stock will recover and move higher . . . be patient.

Yeah, after a day of mulling over the call this is pretty much how I now feel too. 2022 is going to be an exciting year for Tesla.

 

[MABMAB]

My biggest takeaway this week
Reminded of someone's tagline
It's the batteries stupid.

Tesla Austin using the new cells.
Go back and watch battery day presentation starting about 33:30

Tesla and Musk are playing a long game.

 

[Cape Coddess]

Couch is empty thanks to pre-market. Polishing and spiffing up my poor beaten down new shares. They are now ready for recovery.
Onward ho!

 

[Speedr117]

It's also possible that Elon changed his mind (or was talked into changing) on what to say between the tweet and the call.

After a long weekend with Larry in Hawaii. I feel the same. Probably got talked off the ledge to reveal too much. BTW, an easy "win" that Wall Street would have loved is if he said "we're producing a limited number of semi's". But even though a picture was in the earnings deck, not one word...

 

[dww12]

Yahoo finance still showing $3 ttm earning and a P/E of 270. Last two earnings Tesla started an uptrend the day this number updated. Last Q was the next day, Q2 was 3-4 days later.

 

[nativewolf]

TSLA will succeed in the long term and stock will follow the growth. You just have to take bets that can be rolled in the long term for time to be on your side. That’s what I guess I will do. Roll the Puts to 2024, when the SP will be >2500

Or stop the puts, chairs, calls, etc. Just buy and hold the stock....just a thought

 

[Drax7]

Go watch Dave T's youtube video today where he is talking with Gary Black. Zach K did a great job updating investors and "providing additional details".

Elon in many questions refused to answer and instead kept going back to vague "FSD this and FSD that" comments. That's great for the 50,000 ft view, but investors want details, enough so that they can work on their models for financials, especially financials beyond 2022 when it is a company like Tesla who's share price depends upon that long-term future growth. Elon made that opaque, not clear.

LITERALLY, per Gary Black, the drop today was because many portfolio managers had to sharpen their pencils and remove the 25,000 car from their calculations, because Elon said they aren't doing it anytime soon.

Gary black is probably partially wrong too. There is nothing Elon could have said that would have rallied the stock in
this risk off environment. However, Elon aggravated the situation with his daydreams .

Getting Berlin and Austin final approval should initiate some positive reaction.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

OK I've got some powder here.
I'm ready for some more.
I'm not afraid.
Bring it on.

 

[nativewolf]

I view what you labelled “Tesla shifting away from EVs” the same way as “Amazon shifting away from online sales”. They started AWS which is a HUGE contributor to their bottom line, while still ramping their online sales. I don’t think Tesla will stop building/selling EVs, but their shift to AI will have a huge impact on the company and its financials.

I think the difference is that Amazon had rolled out AWS internally before AWS was ever sold to anyone. It worked. They had invested years building that capability and never pumped it. Then they rolled out slowly, and it took off. The profit margins exceeded retailing by a long shot. Microsoft was nearly destroyed...if Balmer had just stood in at CEO 2 more years...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yeah, after a day of mulling over the call this is pretty much how I now feel too. 2022 is going to be an exciting year for Tesla.

I'm actually of the opinion 2022 will be boring, that's what Elon just told me. The key being that boring is absurdly profitable for Tesla. Everyone's so beat up they can't just look at the numbers in front of them.

Another 70+% growth year.
EPS in the $13-18 range.

Both those things are pretty much a lock, so invest accordingly. If everyone here could get their feelings under control, they'd see the opportunity. Banks don't have feelings.

 

[traxila]

Hindsight there was nothing that they could have said in the earnings call that would have rallied the SP short term. The jackals have been waiting for these market conditions for years.

Regardless of what EM said, the deck statement of “we could not meet demand in 2021 due to supply chain constraints factories were below capacity” was transformed into a headline that Tesla warned going forward due to supply chain. It did not even matter what was said in the actual call. The story was already out. And backing it up was hungry deep pocketed traders looking to take TSLA down. Job well done.

EM brought us to this place. I will stick with the man that has made this company what it is. He can talk as much as he wants. Short term traders beware. This includes me….sigh.

 

[Knightowl]

Unless I get margin called and robbed of my borrowed shares I plan to keep them and just pay them off over the next few months

 

[OrthoSurg]

Here's what happened:

Yes, traditional money on Wall Street, funds, money managers, etc. think in a very formal, regimented, restricted manner. I call it stupid although they are not really stupid (but that is essentially how it plays out in situations like these). They have to model the most likely earnings looking forward to assign value to the shares today. They cannot model things that don't fit their model. That means any talk of humanoid robots they don't know what to do with. Any talk of FSD, they cannot put in their spreadsheet. How do you model "nutty"? But the worst part is, once Elon said the economy car was not being worked on and the Cybertruck has a somewhat nebulous timeline, they can't model revenues for those things either. And they can't understand that the market has huge ability to absorb far more Model 3's and Model Y's than current sales/production. So they can't model that many of each car model because that would make both of them the best-selling cars, period. Gas or electric Yet EV's are only 6% of global sales. They can't compute this. They think Tesla needs more car models to distribute the volume of sales Tesla is forecasting because that's how the auto industry works.

That means TSLA ownership is only for those who "get it". Meanwhile Tesla will continue to build production capacity which will result in quarter after quarter of record sales. As the new factories ramp into efficient production their margins will be crazy high because they didn't spend a bunch of money spreading their production around more models than necessary. He even told us the 4680 cells are ramping up as we speak, both in-house and at partner factories, and it flew right over the heads of those who sold/decided not to buy. Remember, it's all about the batteries.

I can't say how long it will take for the price to recover, but eventually reality will start to sink in and the price will get bid back up. My feeling is Elon purposefully disenfranchised anyone too idiotic to see what is happening right before their eyes. He really doesn't give a flying frack because he doesn't want to work for people like that (yes, he works for shareholders). He knows he is going to make a lot of people very wealthy and he thinks it's better if it goes to the kind of people he likes rather than those he despises. The beauty of all this is it didn't require anything but pure honesty from Elon. Sure, he might have hammed it up a little bit but essentially, he was giving us the straight scoop on how nutty the profits are going to be and giving the finger to those he doesn't like.

But that's not all. Elon works his magic by taking actions that solve multiple things at once. And a low share price is good for Tesla's next phase of expansion in terms of attracting talent. Elon doesn't give all this much thought because he's a visionary. He just sees the future he wants to create and takes steps that sets big things in motion, that pushes towards the desired outcome. It's not a cold, calculated, if A, then B. This is what vision is and he doesn't fret over the details. He doesn't see this in words in his mind, it happens in cascades of visions. It's the source of his particular form of magic. It's not really magic but the superior results he delivers can make it look like magic to someone who doesn't understand how he can accomplish so much, how things seem to go his way an inordinate amount of the time.

A conventionally thinking CEO judges they did a good job on a conference call if the share price rises during and after the call. Higher share price is good, right? Success! Elon takes a bigger view. He did well on the call if he sets off a chain of events that allows greater success down the road. He needs to get the dominoes lined up. Because he knows true success is not a high share price. True success is hard. It's the success that made that high share price possible and we are still in the early stages. I'm sure there is a lot more depth to his vision than I'm even aware of. He's probably killing 3 or 4 birds with one stone, Part of it might simply be because it's more fun being CEO of Tesla when he can draw out the doubters and naysayers and them give them a good slapping. He's not worried because he knows the share price will eventually take care of itself.

It's not the first time he's done this. Those who like non-volatile stocks or need some handholding on future projections can shop elsewhere, for everyone else, it's a buying opportunity. This is why I focus on the company's execution rather the share price.

Elon is exactly the opposite of Mary Barra.
She is making announcements of 25 new EV models by 2025. Promises That GM will be number 1. She is telling exactly what wallstreet wants to hear even if it’s total bullcrap

 

[Unpilot]

Soo....inflation up and when that news came out the NASDAQ started into the green?

I'm lost

 

[Krugerrand]

Fine. I’ll confess as well. Still rich. ‍

 

[JustMe]

Soo....inflation up and when that news came out the NASDAQ started into the green?

I'm lost

Sometimes bad news is better than your worst fears…

 

[thx1139]

Latest delivery windows (from a California perspective)

Model	Est Delivery
Model S	Jul
Model S Plaid	4-8 weeks
Model 3	Jun
Model 3 LR	Mar
Model 3 Perf	Mar
Model X	Jan 2023
Model X Plaid	Oct
Model Y LR	Aug
Model Y Perf	Mar

Couple notes on that.
Model 3 with the basic 18 wheels at $44,990 is October. June is the 19 wheels and total cost is $46,490
Model Y with the basic 19 wheels at $58,990 is December. August is the 20 inch wheels and total cost is $60,990