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Over and over people imagine that there is no need for smaller cars than Model 3 and/or Elon has said there will not be any such vehicle and/or small means cheap and low margin. If my memory is correct every single opinion along these liens comes from somebody in North America.
Major auto markets such as India, Brazil, all of Europe and Africa plus almost all of Asia has strong preference for smaller vehicles, whether cheap or expensive.ts a

Until the chip shortages are resolved there is no way to serve these markets with any products at all, except perhaps as a preliminary market test. Hence Elon's comments.

Most posters equate small with low margin. That is false.

Despite repeated detailed explanations that even include relative pricing and volumes of various small car versions these incorrect posts keep happening.
Please, when considering vehicle form factors consider the worldwide vehicle size distributions and check out the Posted Prices by version, then compare relative volumes. Such analyses have been posted innumerable times.

Once that has been done then examine where Tesla has sales today and how closely the current model availability corresponds with market shares.

Bluntly, Tesla can easily quadruple sales without hampering margins once there are smaller models available using Tesla design and construction technologies.
In this post I am not repeating any of the data that has already been posted periodically by several of us. I will offer some obvious hints:

Compare BMW 1 series models for base price and higher end price. Then check volumes for each in any given market.
Compare similar choices for any major OEM.
Next make sure to check, for example, Toyota Corolla pricing and features between, say, the USA and , say, Brazil. You'll discover that many models sell and are priced as luxury vehicles in some markets and in others as cheap entry level basic ones.

Finally, consider the cost accounting consequences of increased volumes in capital intensive products.

All that might well help us to avoid superficial and incorrect generalizations.

Note 1: I apologize if my tone seems strident. It becomes a bit tiresome to keep seeing the same reasoning over and over.
Note 2: These comments are in part driven my my habit of buying 'hot hatches' over the years, invariably with ASP of roughly twice the base model.
 
I have heard a lot about the delayed permits for Berlin but not much about the process for getting approval for Austin.
Who exactly has to approve the production for Texas ?
I hate to say it but, since the selection of Berlin for a Giagafactory, I have been very skeptical about the reality of the Gigafacotry becoming a producing plant for Tesla. Why would the government of Germany, as a matter of course, allow Tesla to come in and destroy 20-25% of the GDP of their country by allowing Tesla to annihilate all of their globally revered brands in short order. I'd like to be wrong about this, but the bottom line is that Tesla could be popping out 10's of thousands of Y's and 3's at this juncture, but they are not. JMO.
 
I do believe rates will increase. I also believe that without supply chain issues easing, we are just redistributing profit from businesses to banks. Rate goes up, Tesla decrease price, customer pays exactly same monthly payment, just more to the banks.
I am far more optimistic. I think a rate increase here will do wonders for Tesla's business if demand for the marginally profitable ICE decreases as lease / finance costs increase. This will necessarily ease up the supply chain constraints. A drop in used prices is also a good thing, because the residuals are then lower for the ice cars. These old ICE cars are unnaturally holding up their value, prompting the owners to get a new one for not much extra cash after trade in.

It's not gonna do much for Tesla's borrowing costs because we have so little debt these days unlike the on and off balance sheet liabilities for the legacy companies.

I think a mild and quick recession that gets supply and demand in sync is a great thing.


To channel Elon:

Lie back and think of England
 
There have been many comments and criticisms about Elon being “late” or delaying new technology and products. Please remember that when you are creating something that has never existed before you don’t know how long it will take or how many times you have to start over or take a different path to final production.

During my career, I had the opportunity to develop innovative new technology and we would always double our engineering estimates and still missed sometimes because we had to address unknowns. The more we learned and the more we understood about the effort, the more accurate we were.

When creating world-changing technology for the first time, you can make an initial estimate about how long it will take and how much it will cost, but when unknowns are encountered or better new approaches are identified then you can choose to extend the timeframe/cost, deliver lower quality or an inferior product within time/budget, or abandon the effort.

Elon has a vision for the future that is absolutely doable. When fully realized, Elon’s contributions will greatly benefit humanity - arguably much more than anyone in modern history. I am glad he will not abandon or minimize his vision and the products and services that will make it reality.

With all of that said, things will take however long they take. Elon tries to keep us updated with what he knows at any given point in time, but then gets criticism when it takes longer than expected. I would have lost patience a long time ago and not responded, but Elon is much more patient than me.

So, please keep up the world-changing efforts, Elon. You are my hero, thank you for all you have done and are going to do in the future.
 
Neural nets have already allowed robot "training" to occur much easier and quicker. Here's a video of a robot hand being trained to solve Rubik's cube. And this was in 2019. Put the firepower of a nearly trillion dollar market cap company behind this problem and it doesn't seem so unsurmountable.


That's pretty amazing, thanks for posting!
 
I am far more optimistic. I think a rate increase here will do wonders for Tesla's business if demand for the marginally profitable ICE decreases as lease / finance costs increase. This will necessarily ease up the supply chain constraints. A drop in used prices is also a good thing, because the residuals are then lower for the ice cars. These old ICE cars are unnaturally holding up their value, prompting the owners to get a new one for not much extra cash after trade in.

It's not gonna do much for Tesla's borrowing costs because we have so little debt these days unlike the on and off balance sheet liabilities for the legacy companies.

I think a mild and quick recession that gets supply and demand in sync is a great thing.


To channel Elon:

Lie back and think of England
To me, that's what's odd about Tesla, AMD and NVDA (and some others) stocks tanking. These are all big, profitable companies, with, as far as I know, great cash reserves. They don't need to borrow, hence lending rates shouldn't impact them from that standpoint. They all offer great returns, far better than bonds. Newer companies, that don't have a positive cash flow, sure. The biggest impact I could see would be higher borrowing costs for purchasers, but frankly I'm not sure how big an impact that is in this segment. It's a bigger impact for those living off investments who are now putting off spending due to the recent cratering of their portfolios (aka me!).
 
To me, that's what's odd about Tesla, AMD and NVDA (and some others) stocks tanking. These are all big, profitable companies, with, as far as I know, great cash reserves. They don't need to borrow, hence lending rates shouldn't impact them from that standpoint. They all offer great returns, far better than bonds. Newer companies, that don't have a positive cash flow, sure. The biggest impact I could see would be higher borrowing costs for purchasers, but frankly I'm not sure how big an impact that is in this segment. It's a bigger impact for those living off investments who are now putting off spending due to the recent cratering of their portfolios (aka me!).
What do they all have in common? Do they depend on Taiwan and/or reasonable relations with China ? But then why would apple not be affected
 
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What do they all have in common? Do they depend on Taiwan and/or reasonable relations with China ? But then why would apple not be affected
That's one I don't get. AAPL earnings up 25% YoY, market is pretty saturated, and their stock goes up what, 11%. TSLA earnings up 217% YoY, 30% gross margins auto, highest in industry, and it tanks. Makes no sense to me.
 

Someone needs to tell Moodys about Altman Z. :)

Part of the car companies debt is the finance arm providing loans to purchasers, that should be backed out.

So recalculated Altman Z scores might give traditional auto more hope.

But Tesla's score is already well above the danger zone.
I think we bulls really need to calculated the amount of debt legacy auto has on the book that they owe, vs debt on the books owned by customers. This always skew these kind of analysis and makes it useless(while giving TslaQ reason to think we are all stupid).
 
I think we bulls really need to calculated the amount of debt legacy auto has on the book that they own, and debt on the books owned by customers. This always skew these kind if analysis and makes it useless(while giving TslaQ reason to think we are all stupid).
Yes, his calculation is wrong, except for Tesla, but the formula itself is interesting.

Taking Ford as an example he has $155B of debt outside of Ford Credit it is more like $24B.

His point about the value of assets, including IMO leased cars is solid. Some of those car loans may be leases. meaning the car makers has to sell the car at the end of the lease. Some portion of the loan has to be for plant and equipment, including new loans they will need to build EV production.

Another thing that happens in an economic downturn is, some customers can't repay loans, which raises the question of whether the car itself is the only loan security.
 
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WS didn't have any problems with the call. If they did, we would have seen some after market reaction. Today's price action was coordinated shorting, premeditated and pre-planned regardless of what was shared in the call or earnings results. The bears are back. I imagine they were waiting for this moment for the last couple of years. TSLA will win in the end, it's so clear to see.
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Wanting something that isn’t in your control to make happen AND knowing (with just a modicum of thought) that it bloody well isn’t going to happen AND depending on it not to happen AND doubling down by betting on it not happening AND then blaming someone else for the outcome AND stomping your feet like a petulant child is illogical, unreasonable and immature.

There, I addressed it for you. You can be as ‘critical’ as you want and embrace an angry or otherwise opinion and it still won’t change the outcome. You messed up. You thought you knew better. You put something on the line that you didn’t want to lose and you have no one to blame but yourself. Learn your lesson or don’t.
 
Over and over people imagine that there is no need for smaller cars than Model 3 and/or Elon has said there will not be any such vehicle and/or small means cheap and low margin. If my memory is correct every single opinion along these liens comes from somebody in North America.
Major auto markets such as India, Brazil, all of Europe and Africa plus almost all of Asia has strong preference for smaller vehicles, whether cheap or expensive.ts a

Until the chip shortages are resolved there is no way to serve these markets with any products at all, except perhaps as a preliminary market test. Hence Elon's comments.

Most posters equate small with low margin. That is false.

Despite repeated detailed explanations that even include relative pricing and volumes of various small car versions these incorrect posts keep happening.
Please, when considering vehicle form factors consider the worldwide vehicle size distributions and check out the Posted Prices by version, then compare relative volumes. Such analyses have been posted innumerable times.

Once that has been done then examine where Tesla has sales today and how closely the current model availability corresponds with market shares.

Bluntly, Tesla can easily quadruple sales without hampering margins once there are smaller models available using Tesla design and construction technologies.
In this post I am not repeating any of the data that has already been posted periodically by several of us. I will offer some obvious hints:

Compare BMW 1 series models for base price and higher end price. Then check volumes for each in any given market.
Compare similar choices for any major OEM.
Next make sure to check, for example, Toyota Corolla pricing and features between, say, the USA and , say, Brazil. You'll discover that many models sell and are priced as luxury vehicles in some markets and in others as cheap entry level basic ones.

Finally, consider the cost accounting consequences of increased volumes in capital intensive products.

All that might well help us to avoid superficial and incorrect generalizations.

Note 1: I apologize if my tone seems strident. It becomes a bit tiresome to keep seeing the same reasoning over and over.
Note 2: These comments are in part driven my my habit of buying 'hot hatches' over the years, invariably with ASP of roughly twice the base model.
Tesla did not reiterate your thoughts during the EC...even when asked.
 
Over and over people imagine that there is no need for smaller cars than Model 3 and/or Elon has said there will not be any such vehicle and/or small means cheap and low margin. If my memory is correct every single opinion along these liens comes from somebody in North America.
Major auto markets such as India, Brazil, all of Europe and Africa plus almost all of Asia has strong preference for smaller vehicles, whether cheap or expensive.ts a

Until the chip shortages are resolved there is no way to serve these markets with any products at all, except perhaps as a preliminary market test. Hence Elon's comments.

Most posters equate small with low margin. That is false.

Despite repeated detailed explanations that even include relative pricing and volumes of various small car versions these incorrect posts keep happening.
Please, when considering vehicle form factors consider the worldwide vehicle size distributions and check out the Posted Prices by version, then compare relative volumes. Such analyses have been posted innumerable times.

Once that has been done then examine where Tesla has sales today and how closely the current model availability corresponds with market shares.

Bluntly, Tesla can easily quadruple sales without hampering margins once there are smaller models available using Tesla design and construction technologies.
In this post I am not repeating any of the data that has already been posted periodically by several of us. I will offer some obvious hints:

Compare BMW 1 series models for base price and higher end price. Then check volumes for each in any given market.
Compare similar choices for any major OEM.
Next make sure to check, for example, Toyota Corolla pricing and features between, say, the USA and , say, Brazil. You'll discover that many models sell and are priced as luxury vehicles in some markets and in others as cheap entry level basic ones.

Finally, consider the cost accounting consequences of increased volumes in capital intensive products.

All that might well help us to avoid superficial and incorrect generalizations.

Note 1: I apologize if my tone seems strident. It becomes a bit tiresome to keep seeing the same reasoning over and over.
Note 2: These comments are in part driven my my habit of buying 'hot hatches' over the years, invariably with ASP of roughly twice the base model.
My read is: Tesla is not going to introduce a hot hatch until supply of Y/3 meet or exceed demand.
 
Tesla did not reiterate your thoughts during the EC...even when asked.

“So, on the product road map front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not going to go through every sort of thing that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call.”
-EM Q4 earnings call

There is a lot going on behind the scenes for future products and it was obvious that Elon wanted the earnings call focus to be on 2022 execution.

I am really looking forward to each and every one of those product launches! 🤩
 
I must admit that earnings call was a proverbial curve ball. Even in this thread, home of some of the smartest Tesla bulls on the planet, everyone is all over the place. Everyone is trying to translate what was meant...what was implied. I can only imagine if this crew is uncertain of the message and confused, what's happening to WS, analysts and PMs. I personally enjoy listening to Elon talk about almost anything, but I think leaving the future ECs to the guys who eloquently speak Wallstreetenese is best.
 
I hate to say it but, since the selection of Berlin for a Giagafactory, I have been very skeptical about the reality of the Gigafacotry becoming a producing plant for Tesla. Why would the government of Germany, as a matter of course, allow Tesla to come in and destroy 20-25% of the GDP of their country by allowing Tesla to annihilate all of their globally revered brands in short order. I'd like to be wrong about this, but the bottom line is that Tesla could be popping out 10's of thousands of Y's and 3's at this juncture, but they are not. JMO.
I have to admit, I had the same feelings when I first heard about all the roadblocks the bureaucracy and the "environmental" groups are throwing at them. I still wonder if those environmentalists aren't actually paid by VW, or their own government. But I don't know that it makes sense. First, the roadblocks have come down. It's taken time and money, but they are dropping. And ultimately, screwing with Tesla only hurts Germany. First, they destroy chances for future, foreign investment. Second-Tesla will build cars in Europe-it doesn't have to be in Germany. They can built another plant, still take business from VW, but not employ German workers or pay German taxes. I suspect even their government realizes that. Frankly, Germany needs Tesla a lot more than Tesla needs Germany.