Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Yes pretty much every morning this week TSLA starts to break out but then immediately gets capped.......very easily I might add. It's like volume goes completely dry the moment the capping comes in. It's not a great sign, at least in the short term.

This behavior is exactly what I was referencing, the thinking being that the accumulation was driving volume, and that once it went away volume and prices decline.

 

[Discoducky]

Also at least marginally relevant to new product, they just lost the head of new product engineering to Ford

Tesla loses Roadster chief engineer behind several important vehicle programs to Ford

Tesla has lost its executive in charge of new vehicle programs who has been in charge of several important engineering...

electrek.co

He went to join Doug Field, my former manager and a great guy. I get that Ford is offering these top folks a huge chunk of compensation, but what happens when the financial floor drops out from under Ford in short order? I get US truck sales will be great for Ford this year, but it will be interesting to see the teardown of the Lightning.

While I get that the new video of the Lightning is probably not the actual production line, it is very much not a new chassis, nor an innovative/efficient drivetrain. Ford is hiring key folks, that is good, but it is good enough? That remains to be seen.

 

[Ogre]

He went to join Doug Field, my former manager and a great guy. I get that Ford is offering these top folks a huge chunk of compensation, but what happens when the financial floor drops out from under Ford in short order? I get US truck sales will be great for Ford this year, but it will be interesting to see the teardown of the Lightning.

While I get that the new video of the Lightning is probably not the actual production line, it is very much not a new chassis, nor an innovative/efficient drivetrain. Ford is hiring key folks, that is good, but it is good enough? That remains to be seen.

He has a giant pile of TSLA options and stock… likely a huge signing bonus and salary with Ford. So does it really matter if Ford crashes and burns? He wins either way.

Microsoft and Apple had similar issues when they had piles of millionaires on their staff.

 

[Discoducky]

He has a giant pile of TSLA options and stock… likely a huge signing bonus and salary with Ford. So does it really matter if Ford crashes and burns? He wins either way.

Microsoft and Apple had similar issues when they had piles of millionaires on their staff.

He'll be fine either way, I just don't see how Ford will give him or other high ranking VP's license to do what NEEDS to be done. Even if Ford but every single Elon-like thinking/managment/decision making strategy/tactic into place today, the gap will still be there and it is big, many years big. Ford doesn't have that much time, 3 years at best as CT will take away Ford's last profitable business, the US truck market.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes which is why I'm bullish on the overall economy pulling out of this period of high inflation. I want wage inflation to stick because I do think the other elements of inflation will subside. What we'll be left with then is permanently higher wagers. And if you take the view that I take in that larger, more macro deflationary forces will win out, things will be better for the average worker. It might be hard for some to see right now, but I think it will be surprising how much the dynamics shift from the beginning of this year to the end of this year.

That and as you said, company's are continually increasing productivity and efficiency. I still so many sectors and industries that haven't adopted newer technology and software that would increase their efficiency by 15-20% alone. My significant other is in the health care field and it's crazy how much inefficiencies she tells me about

I'm bullish on the overall economy too. But, even if I were not, I would not be selling a company like Tesla that can easily outgrow inflation and wage growth, bonds with increasing yields and just about anything else out there with the exception of hyper-inflation, the likes of which has never been seen in the modern era of the U.S. dollar.

If someone is going to be betting on hyperinflation with large portions of their portfolio, they had better be wearing their tinfoil hat too!

 

[Nocturnal]

Vanguard loads up on more Tesla stock, now owns 6.2 percent of automaker

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) revealed in a 13-G filing with the SEC that Vanguard Group, a passive fund manager based out of Malvern, Pennsylvania, has purchased additional shares of the electric automaker’s stock. The filing shows that Vanguard increased its holdings to 62,448,572 aggregate shares...

www.teslarati.com

#1 holder now if I'm reading that correctly.

He'll be fine either way, I just don't see how Ford will give him or other high ranking VP's license to do what NEEDS to be done. Even if Ford but every single Elon-like thinking/managment/decision making strategy/tactic into place today, the gap will still be there and it is big, many years big. Ford doesn't have that much time, 3 years at best as CT will take away Ford's last profitable business, the US truck market.

That's what some people do though. Work your behind off for X time at Tesla, hold a bunch of stock, then move to a less stressful environment with your brilliant resume and get a huge pay increase. It's like pre-retirement.

I'm not even crapping on Ford (intentionally) but it's obvious that working at Tesla is far more demanding.

 

[thx1139]

Isn't the consensus that Tesla has stopped work on more models for focus on FSD/GAI/BOT stuff?

personally I'd love to see a smaller model from Berlin for Europe, Shanghai for Asia and Austin ... well US people don't buy small cars right?

So which one is it - focus on SW or new Models - or both?

Not announcing release in 2022/2023 doesnt mean they arent being worked on. Tesla doesnt have designers and engineers sitting idle.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm torn on this one. I think I'll see how Q1 delivery numbers from China start looking before deciding. I got burned a bit by Q4 earnings so either way this year will be more conservative for me. (I say that now of course )

You didn't get burned by Q4 earnings, you got burned by the market reaction to Q4 earnings.

Because the market loves to act in the way you least expect. Unless a lot of people are already expecting it to react in unexpected ways, then it acts how one would have expected before they thought it would react in unexpected ways.

See what I mean?

 

[Ogre]

He'll be fine either way, I just don't see how Ford will give him or other high ranking VP's license to do what NEEDS to be done. Even if Ford but every single Elon-like thinking/managment/decision making strategy/tactic into place today, the gap will still be there and it is big, many years big. Ford doesn't have that much time, 3 years at best as CT will take away Ford's last profitable business, the US truck market.

Farley seems hit or miss to me.

On the one hand I think he sees the clear and obvious threat Tesla represents to them. He also I think understands how the EV transition is inevitable.

On the other hand, comments he‘s made make it clear that he still thinks 60% of their sales will be ICE or hybrid by 2030 which strikes me as pretty unlikely. Ford may not transition that quickly, but paradigm shifts don’t happen on convenient time-lines.

Farley also suggested they would have 600,000 cars online by next year. Where exactly are they getting 50+ GWH of batteries from?

 

[ZsoZso]

Bought 15 chairs @911 thanks to the panic-de-jour
Now I have a nice round number, so enough of this silliness, lets break through that 1000 barrier already!

 

[StealthP3D]

I have a question on this oft-expressed idea/assumption/sentiment -- that FSD becoming statistically safer than a human will drive massive rapid public acceptance.
It seems to me, given the example of how almost every fire in a Tesla makes USA national news, that FSD is going to have to be almost perfect - far better than "just beats a human". Every single fatal accident involving FSD will be guaranteed to make the national news at first, and the general public thinks once again, as they have been preconditioned to think by the FUD, that you cannot trust the robots.
Stats show in the USA in 2021, we had an average of roughly 50 fatal accidents a day. If even 1 of those per WEEK is related to FSD in its first release year, we will be hit over and over every week with a national-level story of robot-caused deaths. And even if the news stories say "statistically these cars are safer" in a quick sentence at the end, statements like that are, in the viewing public's collective mind, more than offset by a video of a burning Tesla, an ambulance, and grim looking first responders.
The argument that "the statistics show its safer per mile" convinces very few airplane-fearers to take a plane rather than a car, and I think that same argument will convince very few low-information drivers that taking their hands off the wheel and putting the AI in charge is safer.
I grudgingly think the rollout of FSD will therefore be slow, and only helped along as public attitudes change, and that pace may well be glacial. I am actually encouraged that other automakers are advertising at least limited autonomy, as this may help the public attitude change needed to make us all safer in the long run.
Can someone talk me off the ledge here?

Get off the ledge!

Seriously, adoption of FSD will mirror the overall adoption of Tesla in many ways. The FUDsters told the public that Tesla builds shoddy cars with poor paint jobs, whompy wheels, huge panel gaps and fraudulently named Autopilots that try to kill you, they will also tell the public FSD is more dangerous than a drunk driver. But the lies will get limited traction. Look at current demand for Tesla vehicles. Even as Tesla is increasing production by more than 80% YoY, the waiting lists to buy these "shoddy and unreliable" cars just keep growing.

Tesla doesn't need FSD to have the confidence of every nutjob out there to launch it successfully. Sure, there will still be accidents but as long as the overall accident rate is significantly lower than the average accident rate, most people will see through the FUD. Even the fence-sitters will know that FSD keeps getting safer every year. So even if they think the safety is a toss-up, or not fully proven yet, they know next year it will be better.

The real nutjobs will refuse to get in a self-driving car right up until they are 6 feet under. And guess what? It won't matter one bit because there will be a line out the door of people wanting to buy FSD cars. When FSD is safer- it will save lives overall, not cost lives. I will be less trusting than most and remain alert and attentive behind the wheel, just as I do now. I will do this until FSD is proven safer than 99% of the drivers on the road. If I get in a FSD car with no steering wheel, going over 60 mph in a complex driving environment, I will be nervous, just as I am now when on the highway with someone of questionable driving ability. FSD won't be a thing unless it's saving lives and preventing accidents.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lol, turns out it is a small world, after all:

Walt Disney Company DIS (+4.04%)

You know, because consumer inflationary discretionary!

Cheers!

 

[bkp_duke]

Also at least marginally relevant to new product, they just lost the head of new product engineering to Ford

Tesla loses Roadster chief engineer behind several important vehicle programs to Ford

Tesla has lost its executive in charge of new vehicle programs who has been in charge of several important engineering...

electrek.co

Wow, what a downgrade for that guy. Some people don't like working with Musk, but after coming from the "open, do what it takes to get things done" environment of Tesla, this guy may get frustrated quickly by the internal politics Ford is notorious for.

 

[StealthP3D]

My Model 3 is a death trap. There is no audible signal to remind me to check that all 4 wheels are attached before setting off.

Both of our Model 3's back up almost completely silently (pre-noisemaker).

Hardly a week goes by that one of us doesn't back over a baby in a baby carriage, a deaf person or at least one older dog that was caught off guard. I've taken to putting crosshatches representing "kills" on the front left side-panel right behind the front wheel but I'm running out of space for new ones!

/s

 

[Nocturnal]

You didn't get burned by Q4 earnings, you got burned by the market reaction to Q4 earnings.

Because the market loves to act in the way you least expect. Unless a lot of people are already expecting it react in unexpected ways, then it acts how one would have expected before they thought it would react in unexpected ways.

See what I mean?

Oh for sure. I was pretty accurate with my expectations. It's the pesky macro that got me.

 

[StealthP3D]

He'll be fine either way, I just don't see how Ford will give him or other high ranking VP's license to do what NEEDS to be done. Even if Ford but every single Elon-like thinking/managment/decision making strategy/tactic into place today, the gap will still be there and it is big, many years big. Ford doesn't have that much time, 3 years at best as CT will take away Ford's last profitable business, the US truck market.

He will get huge respect at Ford (coming from Tesla), he will get his weekends and evenings back without feeling like he's short-changing fellow employees or setting a bad example, and maybe he even thinks he will better accelerate the transition to sustainable energy by helping Ford out. I would suggest that he might be living in a bit of a bubble if he believes that last point but you can't fault him if he wants more personal/family time without feeling guilty about it.

 

[raffiniert]

it has done so with gut-wrenching volatility

You don't say! I stay relaxed all the time.

/s

 

[Ogre]

He will get huge respect at Ford (having led at Tesla for so long), he will get his weekends and evenings back without feeling like he's short-changing fellow employees or setting a bad example, and maybe he even thinks he will better accelerate the transition to sustainable energy by helping Ford out. I would suggest that he might be living in a bit of a bubble if he believes that last point but you can't fault him if he wants more personal/family time without feeling guilty about it.

Or he’ll hit the ground running expecting to make a huge difference. Run into a corporate culture of 40 hour weeks with 10 hours of meetings per week, and end up an unpopular manager because he expects a lot more from his subordinates than they are used to delivering.

People often under-rate the effect corporate culture has on the ability to get things done and implement change.

 

[StealthP3D]

He'll be fine either way, I just don't see how Ford will give him or other high ranking VP's license to do what NEEDS to be done. Even if Ford but every single Elon-like thinking/managment/decision making strategy/tactic into place today, the gap will still be there and it is big, many years big. Ford doesn't have that much time, 3 years at best as CT will take away Ford's last profitable business, the US truck market.

I think one must remember that to gut sales of an inferior product, it's not sufficient to simply have a better product, you need enough of them to actually gut sales. Even as Tesla is growing car production at unbelievable rates, rates not seen in the industry since Ford ramped the Model T in the early part of the last century, it cannot gut Ford's truck business until it ramps trucks in sufficient volumes. It will take at least two years from now to ramp to 250K/year and probably two more years to get much over a million per year. A million Cybertrucks/year will cut into all truck sales, those from Dodge, Toyota, Nissan, GM as well as Ford, and it will also cut into some non-truck sales so the impact on any one truck manufacturer will be somewhat muted until volumes are well above a million a year.

Oh, it will hurt Ford to lose those highly profitable truck sales and profit margins will take a hit, but it won't be a full-fledged "gutting" of sales for quite a few more years. It pains me to say it but these things take time even when moving at record speed. Only in hindsight does it seem rapid and it's likely those ex-Tesla employees will have departed Ford as well, long before the full-fledged "gutting" of sales happens.

 

[StealthP3D]

Or he’ll hit the ground running expecting to make a huge difference. Run into a corporate culture of 40 hour weeks with 10 hours of meetings per week, and end up an unpopular manager because he expects a lot more from his subordinates than they are used to delivering.

People often under-rate the effect corporate culture has on the ability to get things done and implement change.

Yes, the soul-killing nature of working in an environment that makes you feel like your wheels are spinning and you can't get to where you want to go.