Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Gap filled this morning by 09:36 ET, now let's see if MMs really want a 930 Close on Friday (Max Payne), or if the "Put wall" at 900 is more enticing.

High drama (as usual) in TSLA-land.

Yup, its the "Put wall". Never let it be said that the owners don't run this casino like a business.

"They're professional, they take their time, they get the job done"​

-- Ross Geller, Ph. D (referring to his parents)​

 

[Paracelsus]

Regardless of how anyone wants to interpret this news story regarding the impact on automakers (Stellantis, Ford, GM, etc) as a result of the trucks parked on the Ambassador Bridge linking Detroit, Michigan and Windsor, Ontario, one inevitable outcome completely independent of politics is that the vehicles manufactured in the US that are least dependent upon parts and/or assembly by our neighbors to the north will be the least impacted. From a logistics perspective this is not unlike the current situation moving goods through California ports and on through the distribution chain. Whether it is a blocked bridge between the US & Canada, or a bottlenecked California port system, in both cases the 'Most Made in America' vehicles should have the fewest supply chain issues. While I am sure Lora won't touch this topic, this could be a good time for Steven Mark Ryan, Dave Lee, Rob Maurer and others to possibly point out that Tesla will likely be one of the least effected manufacturers by these situations and remind everyone that the Tesla Model 3 is the Most Made in America vehicle....and perhaps point out that Model Y/Texas GF further bottleneck relief coming soon. Tesla's vertical integration efforts are likely being admired/envied once again by the same people hurling stones and negative comments.

Automakers face even more supply chain pain as Canadian protesters block a key bridge

Car makers are canceling some production shifts as protests over public health measures in Canada shut a key bridge that connects Detroit to Ontario.

www.npr.org

 

[Discoducky]

He will get huge respect at Ford (having led at Tesla for so long), he will get his weekends and evenings back without feeling like he's short-changing fellow employees or setting a bad example, and maybe he even thinks he will better accelerate the transition to sustainable energy by helping Ford out. I would suggest that he might be living in a bit of a bubble if he believes that last point but you can't fault him if he wants more personal/family time without feeling guilty about it.

I wonder about the respect. I highly doubt folks at Ford feel that way. I can't imagine that it is easy for folks to switch from the legacy ICE way of thinking to the new 'computer on wheels' world.

Also, if they truly do want to survive and compete with EVs, they have absolutely no time and would need to work as much as efficiently possible, because Elon does and they need to catch him or just keep the gap from widening.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Well, that was a super fun end to the day! Thanks to the Fed for continuing to crash the markets!

 

[Mengy]

Well, that was a super fun end to the day! Thanks to the Fed for continuing to crash the markets!

They kind of have to, inflation is out of control so they'll have to raise interest rates soon. And yeah, the market ain't going to like it one bit.

It will make for a great buying opportunity though!

 

[CHGolferJim]

I wonder about the respect. I highly doubt folks at Ford feel that way. I can't imagine that it is easy for folks to switch from the legacy ICE way of thinking to the new 'computer on wheels' world.

Also, if they truly do want to survive and compete with EVs, they have absolutely no time and would need to work as much as efficiently possible, because Elon does and they need to catch him or just keep the gap from widening.

Are there possibly two groups that think differently?

• 50+ C-suite execs with decades of "legacy think" engrained in them
• engineering groups of 30-somethings?

 

[insaneoctane]

I have a question on this oft-expressed idea/assumption/sentiment -- that FSD becoming statistically safer than a human will drive massive rapid public acceptance.
It seems to me, given the example of how almost every fire in a Tesla makes USA national news, that FSD is going to have to be almost perfect - far better than "just beats a human". Every single fatal accident involving FSD will be guaranteed to make the national news at first, and the general public thinks once again, as they have been preconditioned to think by the FUD, that you cannot trust the robots.
Stats show in the USA in 2021, we had an average of roughly 50 fatal accidents a day. If even 1 of those per WEEK is related to FSD in its first release year, we will be hit over and over every week with a national-level story of robot-caused deaths. And even if the news stories say "statistically these cars are safer" in a quick sentence at the end, statements like that are, in the viewing public's collective mind, more than offset by a video of a burning Tesla, an ambulance, and grim looking first responders.
The argument that "the statistics show its safer per mile" convinces very few airplane-fearers to take a plane rather than a car, and I think that same argument will convince very few low-information drivers that taking their hands off the wheel and putting the AI in charge is safer.
I grudgingly think the rollout of FSD will therefore be slow, and only helped along as public attitudes change, and that pace may well be glacial. I am actually encouraged that other automakers are advertising at least limited autonomy, as this may help the public attitude change needed to make us all safer in the long run.
Can someone talk me off the ledge here?

I think statistical data together with people wanting the convenience is the only path to success. People wanting to make their travel time productive will certainly push the narrative, but without the data that shows that FSD is 5x to 10x safer than humans, Tesla will struggle to overcome the FUD. Keep in mind the uphill battle the FUD will produce, knowing that even though FSD is 5x safer, FSD will still make mistakes....that some of those mistakes will be "stupid" or "irresponsible" when viewed in hindsight as a human driver. These edgecases that make FSD look stupid will be a mountain of FUD that only the best statistical data might subdue...

 

[Drumheller]

Or he’ll hit the ground running expecting to make a huge difference. Run into a corporate culture of 40 hour weeks with 10 hours of meetings per week, and end up an unpopular manager because he expects a lot more from his subordinates than they are used to delivering.

People often under-rate the effect corporate culture has on the ability to get things done and implement change.

I laughed when reading this. 10 hours of meetings per week would be a dream in many corporate environments. I have 23.5 hours of meetings on my schedule this week. That's after some were canceled and I'd say it's a slightly light week. So 25 hours may be average for me here. I've done consulting and spent time in different established corporations. This level, or slightly less, is the norm. Most upper management truly doesn't "get it." That's why engineers are rushing to work for Musk companies. Once they burn out from being overworked, they can move on to the soul sucking jobs that allow for a work life balance. That's what I did.

 

[thesmokingman]

Also at least marginally relevant to new product, they just lost the head of new product engineering to Ford

Tesla loses Roadster chief engineer behind several important vehicle programs to Ford

Tesla has lost its executive in charge of new vehicle programs who has been in charge of several important engineering...

electrek.co

I wouldn't sweat it. He just might not like it there like Jim Keller going to legacy juggernaut Intel. It's the only time Jim Keller afaik has ever left a position prematurely. For context Keller is a world renown cpu arhcitect and should be dear to Tesla since he was an integral part of DEC, AMD 2x, Apple, and of course our man behind the Tesla NN. Intel thought they could buy their way back to the top of the semi food chain.... so anyways I wouldn't sweat Clarke leaving just yet.

Intel’s Jim Keller Leaves the Company for ‘Personal Reasons’ | ExtremeTech

Intel's CPU architect, Jim Keller, has left the company for 'personal reasons.' Keller will continue to consult with Intel for ...

www.extremetech.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, that was a super fun end to the day! Thanks to the Fed for continuing to crash the markets!

I don't see any crash at the end of the day. Just the steady walk-down since 10:43 ET in the manner hedgies have learned to do over the years to TSLA. Here's today's QQQ: (NASDAQ-100 ETF 'macros')

TLSA followed the same pattern, just displaced higher/lower @ 1.25x macros:

AND that was their bloddy plan all along (TSLA is 50% of the entire Options market, and they landed smak on the first significant "PUT wall" at the 900 strike.

The tail is now wagging the dog, and the dog-catcher is on spring break. Or he has fleas. Not sure which.

Cheers!

 

[dhanson865]

This is becoming somewhat tedious...
"Tesla recalls more vehicles as US agency increases scrutiny"

Tesla recalls more vehicles as US agency increases scrutiny

Tesla is recalling nearly 579,000 vehicles in the U.S. because a “Boombox” function can play sounds over an external speaker and obscure audible warnings for pedestrians.

apnews.com

So a loud sound from the loudspeaker could be louder than the normal sound for the pedestrian warning? And that's a problem because reasons?

Sir, I'm looking for the department of redundancy department. I'd like to complain that a car is making more than the minimum required noise and therefore is a safety hazard for pedestrians that might not hear the normal pedestrian warning.

 

[dhanson865]

The issue is that random noises that do not signify movement may detract from the defined noise that does indicate movement.
i.e. The boy that cried wolf. Or, trees that scream all the time, for no good reason.

Boombox is still enabled in park.
NHTSA has been talking with Tesla about this since Jan 15, 2021. Feature was introduced Dec 24, 2020.
https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2022/RCLRPT-22V063-8773.PDF

Gas cars don't have a noise maker that only signifies movement.

Revving a gas engine is still enabled in park.

It's a double standard.

 

[thesmokingman]

In a few decades it won't matter anymore...

 

[ggr]

Mod: There's an entire other thread about noisemakers, we shall not rehash the arguments here. --ggr.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Now there's chatter about a surprise rate hike tomorrow or something. Well, it's probably time to rip the band-aid off a this point, because God knows the Fed has been ignoring inflation for a year now for many possible reasons, many of them likely political.

 

[pitabun]

They kind of have to, inflation is out of control so they'll have to raise interest rates soon. And yeah, the market ain't going to like it one bit.

It will make for a great buying opportunity though!

I'm honestly not that surprised if the market reacts, not like it was priced in or anything.

 

[WADan]

Can anyone confirm what Dave said about one of our members selling all his (big) holding before the big run up (in 2019)?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Can anyone confirm what Dave said about one of our members selling all his (big) holding before the big run up (in 2019)?

You aren't allowed to speak his name here but it's being talked about on Reddit if you want to know who it was

 

[Cherry Wine]

Can anyone confirm what Dave said about one of our members selling all his (big) holding before the big run up (in 2019)?

Confirm? No, but he's likely talking about neroden. EDIT: After listening to the clip, that is absolutely who he's talking about.

 

[Ocelot]

You aren't allowed to speak his name here but it's being talked about on Reddit if you want to know who it was

do you have a link? i miss his informative posts.