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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Ya. I really wanted electric mail vans to happen. But then, I was always one of the kids who clapped for Tinkerbell to live...Sorry. I got onboard because ARK was pumping Workhorse, and it looked like it had a shot at the USPS contract (
). But I saw couple articles that indicated they were having problems with their prototype, and you know what they say about prototypes and production.
thesmokingman
Active Member
This should so be illegal, never mind the fact that its counter to the US's phase out targets. Hopefully the governor drops this turd.
Update on government targets for phasing out new sales of internal combustion engine passenger cars - International Council on Clean Transportation
Summarizes the current state of internal combustion engine vehicle phase-outs as a policy approach to decarbonizing transport, with a focus on passenger cars.
theicct.org
another reason to split the company now. before this happens. BTW- I think this is a very good point and should be highlighted in any discussion re legacy OEMs
I’m not sayin that I think lucid is a fraud, but it seems disingenuous to me when their CEO is touting their “leadership role” in the EV space and not until after their SPAC merger that the true risks are made public and their production goals are sharply revised downward.Just because Lucid is having production issues doesn't mean they are a fraud. Production is hard, and Lucid isn't planning high volume anytime soon, with a plan like that turning a profit will be extremely difficult. I think they are just being realistic about it rather than sugar coating it.
Tesla makes it look easy, but it took them a decade to get here. All of these competitors are going to have a very rough time for many years out of the gate. Lucky for us TSLA investors our company is past the hurting phase.
I hope Lucid is successful but I don’t think it’s unfair to criticize their shortcomings. Lucid’s valuation is very rich and as this is an investor forum I believe its reasonable to discuss what a fair value for Lucid would be. Some here could be considering an entry point and possible competitive factors.
At a small scale (<3k/month) it isn't high enough volume to produce profit. Reading the article more...
"The key to making the Ford Mustang Mach-E program profitable from day one – due to the high cost of EV batteries – is of course scale, which is precisely why the automaker is working on producing its own batteries in-house as well."
They don't have scale and will most likely never achieve scale as it competes against the Model Y which will saturate market when Austin ramps (hopefully sooner than later) 2nd half of this year.
And it isn't just the batteries, it is the BMS, battery housings, motors, inverters, gearboxes, chassis, wiring harnesses...etc. All of it bought assemblies from 3rd parties. No profit for Ford. I wish they were making their own stuff and when they do make stuff it seems solid (from Sandy's teardown) but it is just too late.
I'll be the first to congratulate them if they ever produce a 1st party battery. I'd anticipate that to be 2027 earliest. They simply won't last that long and I'm worried they won't make it to the end of the year if Ford credit suffers.
thesmokingman
Active Member
Yea, it's a growth stock. It's going to be for a long time. Why do you think they have to have profits now? They're going to be pre-revenue for a long time just like Tesla was.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22471338/0x0_Model_Y_01.jpg)
Tesla finally made a profit without the help of emission credits
A record $1.1 billion profit in the second quarter.
www.theverge.com
CLK350
Member
@JustMe That is pure fantasy but if it came to pass it would be the most badass thing EM ever did. And that’s saying a lot.
My fantasy would be that some Russian oligarch clique topples Putin, gets a regime change going, Russia joins the EU /NATO - and Tesla builds the next GigaFactory in St Petersburg (or whatever the name is now if it has been changed). That would help the mission big time and the folks there too; Russia and the adjoining areas have huge areas for sun and wind renewables; plenty of engineering talent (esp computing) there too. This would be the rational thing to do - why isn't it happening .. Tesla would the be the largest company in the world by orders of magnitude - probably split up into multiple areas besides energy - O yeah it was a dream (folks being rational and not greedy/ selfish)
And, I forgot, facts, reason don't change people's minds <<<-- note, very relevant to Tesla/ Tesla FUD :
If you permit an explanatory digression:
Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds
New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.
Except Tesla was valued at 1/20th of lucid when at this stageYea, it's a growth stock. It's going to be for a long time. Why do you think they have to have profits now? They're going to be pre-revenue for a long time just like Tesla was.
Tesla finally made a profit without the help of emission credits
A record $1.1 billion profit in the second quarter.
thesmokingman
Active Member
Ok, but whose paying for this valuation?? Who are yall pissed at?
And Tesla didn’t have Tesla as competition.
Tesla Q3 2012
Production: 350 cars
net loss:110 million
Market cap: 3.5B
Lucid Q4 2021
Production: ~250???
net loss: 1.045 billion
Market cap: 47 B
I don’t think anyone is pissed (I’m certainly not). So far as I can tell these are observations useful in identifying valuations.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
I agree. I just think that it'd be a mistake to assume car companies like Ford couldn't shift the profits from financing to primary sale if they wanted to.
And either way, $5B earnings off of $100+ billion revenue with high fixed costs is a weak business.
Well, I'm guessing he's got some good news coming to say something like this, but it's Elon so who knows.
Oh, and this has apparently happened!!!
Open the flood gates and Smithers, release the hounds!
Open the flood gates and Smithers, release the hounds!
I seem to remember reading that union membership is incompatible with employee stock compensation? Is that true?
mltv
Member
Ford electric vehicle sales increased 55.3% through February 2022
Ford released its February 2022 sales report, announcing a 55.3% increase in electrified vehicles sales through February. According to the legacy automaker, its electric vehicles sales are growing fast. Ford’s electrified vehicle conquest rates climbed to 54%, 13 percentage points higher...
www.teslarati.com
"Ford sold 4,371 Mustang Mach-E vehicles in January and February. Approximately 2,001 Mustang Mach-E vehicles were sold in February 2022, down by 46.5% compared to February 2021 when Ford sold 3,739 units of the all-electric crossover. In January, Ford sold 2,370 Mustang Mach-E vehicles."
but apparently:
"Ford’s electrified vehicle conquest rates climbed to 54%, 13 percentage points higher compared to February 2021."
He tweeted "Why pay union dues and give up stock options for nothing?".
But in a later tweet replying to a question said "No, UAW does that."
What he argues he meant was that the UAW had never got stock options for the employees as part of a negotiated package, so had they been union they wouldn't get the stock options they have now. (EDIT: He's argued that the UAW doesn't want employees owning stock because that helps create a them v us attitude).
Conquest rate = _Fraction_ of sales replacing a vehicle to an owner replacing a vehicle of another make.I'm very confuse reading this.Ford electric vehicle sales increased 55.3% through February 2022
Ford released its February 2022 sales report, announcing a 55.3% increase in electrified vehicles sales through February. According to the legacy automaker, its electric vehicles sales are growing fast. Ford’s electrified vehicle conquest rates climbed to 54%, 13 percentage points higher...
"Ford sold 4,371 Mustang Mach-E vehicles in January and February. Approximately 2,001 Mustang Mach-E vehicles were sold in February 2022, down by 46.5% compared to February 2021 when Ford sold 3,739 units of the all-electric crossover. In January, Ford sold 2,370 Mustang Mach-E vehicles."
but apparently:
"Ford’s electrified vehicle conquest rates climbed to 54%, 13 percentage points higher compared to February 2021."
The increase is probably to be expected.
The fanbois will get the car early, and as their sales fall away it leaves a more natural mix.
But also, pretty much any EV will have conquest sales because of the limited availability.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Can someone ELI5 that for me? "Here is this mud opened himself"? I'm lost in translation on this one.
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