Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MrMoo]

F is up 8.4% today. Ridiculous. I really don't get it....but then maybe I know too much...

It's fraud if you take investor's money while knowing that you will never make a profit.

I'm not a Redlich fan and I haven't followed him that closely. I just know he's been describing Lucid as a fraud for quite some time.

TSLA went up 30% on a stock split. People are still calling for a stock split even now.

TSLA also had production problems. There is a quote on Elon even saying he wasn't sure if TSLA would be successful but he had to try.

You guys shouldn't have double standards when it comes to making comments. Otherwise it discredits other things you comment on.

 

[Paul_SF]

Maybe that’s where part of that huge investment is going?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499198925210857472

Edit: never mind, it says “considering” . Just in case the usual suspects will jump to point that out. /s

 

[Singuy]

The 10Q's of Apple, Microsoft, Walmart, Costco and Wynn Resorts isn't flowers and roses either. Hardly anyone reads 10Q's anyway. They should, but they don't.

That would be funny if Wynn Resorts 10Q under risks said "The odds are in the houses favor. Taken in the aggregate, the house always wins."

Yeah not sure why journalists, bloggers, and people here are attacking Lucid's 10Q's risk section. Lucid has lots of problems, but us creating or cheering nonsensical FUD shouldn't be one of them.

 

[ZeApelido]

Time for Elon to up his security.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499194255688019971

Don’t worry, I’ve seen a lot of James Bond films - it never works out for the Russians.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Time for Elon to up his security.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499194255688019971

Rogozin is butt-hurt because SpaceX destroyed the Russian monopoly on human spaceflight and decimated the Russian "commercial" launch business.

 

[Mengy]

It's fraud if you take investor's money while knowing that you will never make a profit.

I'm not a Redlich fan and I haven't followed him that closely. I just know he's been describing Lucid as a fraud for quite some time.

Just because Lucid is having production issues doesn't mean they are a fraud. Production is hard, and Lucid isn't planning high volume anytime soon, with a plan like that turning a profit will be extremely difficult. I think they are just being realistic about it rather than sugar coating it.

Tesla makes it look easy, but it took them a decade to get here. All of these competitors are going to have a very rough time for many years out of the gate. Lucky for us TSLA investors our company is past the hurting phase.

 

[Knightshade]

I don't see how $F is going to make any profit on the BEVs they sell and now that they've built and shipped the Mach e they know this. ...I'd bet that they'll lose $5k to $10k for each car in 2022

How do we know that?

I ask because Ford has repeatedly stated the Mach E is profitable, even as recently as a few months ago.

I can buy it's BARELY so...and only by counting the emissions credits (which is why more of them go to the EU than the US)... but why are you convinced they're not only repeatedly publicly lying, but lying at the rate of 5-10 grand per car?

https://fordauthority.com/2021/09/2021-ford-mustang-mach-e-program-is-already-profitable/

Ford confirmed to Ford Authority Executive Editor, Alex Luft, at the 2021 Motor Bella event in Michigan that the Ford Mustang Mach-E program is indeed profitable.

 

[Singuy]

How do we know that?

I ask because Ford has repeatedly stated the Mach E is profitable, even as recently as a few months ago.

I can buy it's BARELY so...and only by counting the emissions credits (which is why more of them go to the EU than the US)... but why are you convinced they're not only repeatedly publicly lying, but lying at the rate of 5-10 grand per car?

https://fordauthority.com/2021/09/2021-ford-mustang-mach-e-program-is-already-profitable/

As in they have a positive gross margin?

From Ford's income statement from Q4.

Auto revenue: 126.2 billion
Cost of sales: 114.7 billion <----lol
Selling/admin expense: 11.9 billion.

From my calculation, Ford is sitting at -400M from their car selling division.
Looks like they made about 5 billion from Ford credit
And 14.7 billion from "other income"..most of it Rivian.

So as of today, Ford is still not profitable from selling ANY car. Must be a start up or something, I hope they have 15% yoy growth to keep up with their marketcap

 

[wtlloyd]

Luckily, that’s one ship I never boarded. Was briefly on the H.M.S. Workhorse, but swiped a lifeboat before most saw the iceberg.

I coulda used a shout-out. Next time?

 

[Knightshade]

As in they have a positive gross margin?

From Ford's income statement from Q4.

Auto revenue: 126.2 billion
Cost of sales: 114.7 billion <----lol
Selling/admin expense: 11.9 billion.

From my calculation, Ford is sitting at -400M from their car selling division.
Looks like they made about 5 billion from Ford credit
And 14.7 billion from "other income"..most of it Rivian.

So as of today, Ford is still not profitable from selling ANY car. Must be a start up or something, I hope they have 15% yoy growth to keep up with their marketcap

But that's their entire business.

He was claiming the Mach E, specifically, was not profitable....despite Ford repeating stating it is, and that he somehow knew that specifically. That's what I was asking for clarification on.

If Ford makes $ or not on the Escort in China or whatever is irrelevant to their future EV business. If they make $ or not on the Mach E is somewhat more relevant.

 

[nativewolf]

He does, but I highly doubt he'll have the ability to move as fast as he wants due to legacy management thinking, huge capital investments and just different ways of operating.

Imagine sitting in front of Ford management and saying, everything you know about making cars is dead and now, we need to move as fast as possible to not only make huge giga chassis casting machines, but also in tandem hire some super expensive software engineers, AI talent and actual battery engineers.

I just don't see this happening and even if it does, what leading engineer is going to Ford? Hows that going to look on your resume in two years when you are looking for a job. But people told me that when I went to Tesla from XBOX. So, time will tell.

I think that's one reason Ford is going to split. Old Co= debts and problems and slow thinkers but lots of legacy parts business. New co EVs, leaner, little debt, less unions, better tech skills overall. I can't believe some here are giving Ford crap about trying to copy Tesla. It is the sincerest form of flattery and Ford seems determined to do so. From batteries to getting rid of dealers.

 

[JustMe]

I have this fantasy wherein Ukraine kicks Putin's butt, builds a Tesla Gigafactory, and cranks out EVs and batteries at a pace fast enough to never be harassed again by Russia. I see in the people and their leader and ability to work like hell to defend and rebuild their country. They can definitely move at Musk speed to get things done.

I'm sure y'all can poke holes at this, but it's my fantasy. I'd like to see a Giga Ukraine producing cars by mid-2023.

That is pure fantasy but if it came to pass it would be the most badass thing EM ever did. And that’s saying a lot.

 

[Gigapress]

As in they have a positive gross margin?

From Ford's income statement from Q4.

Auto revenue: 126.2 billion
Cost of sales: 114.7 billion <----lol
Selling/admin expense: 11.9 billion.

From my calculation, Ford is sitting at -400M from their car selling division.
Looks like they made about 5 billion from Ford credit
And 14.7 billion from "other income"..most of it Rivian.

So as of today, Ford is still not profitable from selling ANY car. Must be a start up or something, I hope they have 15% yoy growth to keep up with their marketcap

Isn't that situation by design? I had thought that selling cars at a slight loss and making up for it on financing was the standard non-Tesla business model. Because most consumers are emotional and unskilled with math

 

[nativewolf]

Isn't that situation by design? I had thought that selling cars at a slight loss and making up for it on financing was the standard non-Tesla business model. Because most consumers are emotional and unskilled with math

Its why Tesla has needed to avoid being compared to auto companies. The business...sucks. Across the world it is always filled with excess capacity.

 

[Singuy]

Isn't that situation by design? I had thought that selling cars at a slight loss and making up for it on financing was the standard non-Tesla business model. Because most consumers are emotional and unskilled with math

If you want a crappy design.

If making 5 billion dollars on over 126 billion dollars worth of revenue is a good design then I am afraid to ask what a bad design is. This is at peak TAM btw. So basically it only goes down from here if the wind blows slightly harder than normal.

If you want to be a bank, be a bank. The banks lend money to borrowers with APPRECIATING assets. Ford loan money to people with depreciating asset. That is some fire they are playing with for just 5 billion dollars worth of chump change.

 

[Singuy]

But that's their entire business.

He was claiming the Mach E, specifically, was not profitable....despite Ford repeating stating it is, and that he somehow knew that specifically. That's what I was asking for clarification on.

If Ford makes $ or not on the Escort in China or whatever is irrelevant to their future EV business. If they make $ or not on the Mach E is somewhat more relevant.

Depends on how you look at it. Gross margin standpoint Mach E is probably positive. But does the Mach E add any contribution to their net income? It absolutely does not. Their entire auto division adds negative value to their net income.

 

[EVDRVN]

I have this fantasy wherein Ukraine kicks Putin's butt, builds a Tesla Gigafactory, and cranks out EVs and batteries at a pace fast enough to never be harassed again by Russia. I see in the people and their leader and ability to work like hell to defend and rebuild their country. They can definitely move at Musk speed to get things done.

I'm sure y'all can poke holes at this, but it's my fantasy. I'd like to see a Giga Ukraine producing cars by mid-2023.

If that happened I can promise you I will go work there for free to get it running. I have many distant relatives there and if I was not at my present age I would go fight. Ukranians are tough, my grandmother could kick Putins ass, seriously. I saw him when I was in Russia last summer and the only word is coward. Rant over.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I coulda used a shout-out. Next time?

Sorry . I got onboard because ARK was pumping Workhorse, and it looked like it had a shot at the USPS contract (). But I saw couple articles that indicated they were having problems with their prototype, and you know what they say about prototypes and production.

 

[Ogre]

Isn't that situation by design? I had thought that selling cars at a slight loss and making up for it on financing was the standard non-Tesla business model. Because most consumers are emotional and unskilled with math

What happens when resale values on ICE vehicles starts to drop and the Ford is stuck with billions in write downs on lease returns?

It is a bizarrely fragile way to run a business.

 

[Electroman]

Time for Elon to up his security.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499194255688019971

I am not able to parse this: "Here is this mud (мурло) opened himself...""

What does this mean?