Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Oklahoma??? Isn't that the state where lawmakers are trying to kick out Tesla stores and service centers??? For me that would be a deal-breaker.

Yep. Tesla should state that if that law passes, they will request Panasonic pursue the Kansas location.

Time to play hardball, it's the only game these moron politicians understand.

 

[mongo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499508080547184646

Why so far from Giga Texas (if they don't produce enough cells locally), unless Tesla plans to open a new one… for Tesla Energy maybe, but then, would Pana start producing LFP cells? I'm confused.

Well GigaNevada isn't exactly collocated with Fremont, and it works out well... And where are the cells coming from for GigaShanghai?

Colocation helps, but isn't necessary.

Indeed @MP3Mike, and one needs to look at the entire material flow path. Theoretically, the cell factory wants to be closer to the mine than the auto plant (assuming useful mass increases during processing). However, any point along that route works.
[Edit: If Tesla were building the cell plant, it would be useful to co-locate with other Tesla facilities; but a 3rd party plant doesn't have the same beneficial factors (beyond the option of a conveyor to deliver the finished product).]

Oklahoma City is 6ish hours from Austin (394 miles). Sparks is 5ish from Fremont (260 miles).

 

[Thekiwi]

View attachment 776322

According to GasBuddy: $4.99 in San Francisco. $3.74 National average.

I know everything is relative, but it amuses me that Americans are freaking out at $5 a gallon. That’s considered cheap in many places around the globe. Here In New Zealand we are currently paying around $8 USD a gallon, which is double the nationwide US average currently (And unfortunately that still doesn’t move many people to choose an EV over an ICE here in New Zealand yet).

 

[totoro722]

that still doesn’t move many people to choose an EV over an ICE here in New Zealand yet).

They are used to that price. It is not so much the price that upsets people here as the CHANGE in price.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I also didn't know where Jon Stewart had gone, he did a top job nailing Gary Gensler (GG) SEC's head

Here's the Video | Channel:

Can We Fix The Stock Market? Interview w/ SEC Chairman Gary Gensler - YouTube (Mar 02, 2022) | The Problem With Jon Stewart - videos

Cheers!

 

[deffu]

Well what I've been saying is that I don't think Tesla will trade at a Foward P/E of less than 50. If it did trade under that this year, I would probably leverage up a ton even though I have a bunch of leverage already. Which would mean if the share price is 800 and Tesla does 330k minimum deliveries for Q1 + all those one time items not being there, would get the Forward P/E ratio down to well below 50.

My post is pretty consistent with what I've been posting since I saw the reaction in the stock after Q4 earnings. They're going use the volatility and lack of buying power in the market in general to drive it as low as possible and as long as possible until Q1's earnings. The downtrend lines are just crystal clear. The stock gets pummeled every time it tests it.

Those one-time items in Q4 really gave Wall St a lot of leverage in this type of macro environment. Forward P/E is 85 today. Take away one time hits from Elon's options and comp plan and that Forward P/E is 64. Take away the one time items for warranty and expediting and the Forward P/E as of today is 54. And as I mentioned before, TTM P/E is heavily skewed by Q1 2021's GAAP EPS. If Tesla prints a $3 GAAP EPS for Q1 2022 then the TTM P/E is going to drop like a rock.

So in summary, I think they keep this up with Tesla staying in a downtrend until Q1 earnings. If Q1 P/D numbers are blowout, above 340k, that could force them to capitulate sooner. The other outcome is we start to get inflation data over the next month that points to inflation easing....which means the stock market rally as a whole is back on.

with gas price spiking and supply chain further disturbed, I dont see inflation pressure easing anytime soon.

 

[SOULPEDL]

FWIW, one of my hard core "car guy" friends is a huge Ford fan. Owns a mustang, Ford signs all over his garage etc.

He just bought a used Model S. Why? I'm sure I rubbed off on him a little, though I don't preach much to friends because nobody likes that, but I think it was mostly about the cool factor and charging. He had almost no knowledge of the third party fast charger networks but knew that Tesla superchargers were everywhere. So far he loves it and has already started buying Tesla merch.

We should have Victory Markings for when we convince someone. It's like an ICE kill.
Here's the proposed update, replacing the witches broom.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

with gas pricing spiking and supply chain further disturbed, I dont see inflation pressure easing anytime soon.

Inflation from just a couple things like gas and wheat will largely be ignored IF other signs of inflation ease such as housing. There will also be a point where gas prices hit a point (which I think is very close) where demand materially drops. People will find other workarounds, carpool together, go out less, etc...

Luckily nowadays you don't have to be driving around all the time to entertain yourself or get goods delivered to your home.

Also, someone mentioned earlier, but when this whole Russia thing does end, the world is going to end up with a glut of excess oil supply. Price for oil will go down drastically.

And I've looked around and the supply chain worries from Ukraine that I was seeing when the whole conflict broke out were grossly exaggerated. Chip suppliers themselves have said they don't rely on materials from Ukraine.

 

[lafrisbee]

This just arrived in my email: FPL Boosts Move to EVs

Excerpts:

Our fast charging network is delivering clean, reliable energy everywhere it’s needed. By building an 800+ mile stretch of fast charging stations, drivers will be able to plug in approximately every 25 miles along Florida's busiest highways.

Coming summer 2022, enjoy worry-free, faster charging at home with a level 2 EV charger. There's no upfront costs for equipment or installation, and unlimited night and weekend off-peak charging will keep your EV fully charged and ready to go.

And yet I saw an ad on Youtube from FPL last night trying to get People with Home solar to pay their fair share.

 

[Paul_SF]

I know everything is relative, but it amuses me that Americans are freaking out at $5 a gallon. That’s considered cheap in many places around the globe. Here In New Zealand we are currently paying around $8 USD a gallon, which is double the nationwide US average currently (And unfortunately that still doesn’t move many people to choose an EV over an ICE here in New Zealand yet).

When you actually look at what’s the average of miles driven in each location, we kinda all pay the same to transport ourselves.

You guys in NZ are driving around 12k km and an average US driver is above 12k miles. Do the math. We should all freak out!

 

[lafrisbee]

"Colocation" will be an archaic, obsolete, no... what's the word.
Well anyway, When Tesla Semi and autonomous driving matures the dang issue won't exist. SO no worries.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Well what I've been saying is that I don't think Tesla will trade at a Foward P/E of less than 50. If it did trade under that this year, I would probably leverage up a ton even though I have a bunch of leverage already. Which would mean if the share price is 800 and Tesla does 330k minimum deliveries for Q1 + all those one time items not being there, would get the Forward P/E ratio down to well below 50.

My post is pretty consistent with what I've been posting since I saw the reaction in the stock after Q4 earnings. They're going use the volatility and lack of buying power in the market in general to drive it as low as possible and as long as possible until Q1's earnings. The downtrend lines are just crystal clear. The stock gets pummeled every time it tests it.

Those one-time items in Q4 really gave Wall St a lot of leverage in this type of macro environment. Forward P/E is 85 today. Take away one time hits from Elon's options and comp plan and that Forward P/E is 64. Take away the one time items for warranty and expediting and the Forward P/E as of today is 54. And as I mentioned before, TTM P/E is heavily skewed by Q1 2021's GAAP EPS. If Tesla prints a $3 GAAP EPS for Q1 2022 then the TTM P/E is going to drop like a rock.

So in summary, I think they keep this up with Tesla staying in a downtrend until Q1 earnings. If Q1 P/D numbers are blowout, above 340k, that could force them to capitulate sooner. The other outcome is we start to get inflation data over the next month that points to inflation easing....which means the stock market rally as a whole is back on.

Sadly I think the Ukraine invasion has derailed any chance at inflation easing in the short term.

I know everything is relative, but it amuses me that Americans are freaking out at $5 a gallon. That’s considered cheap in many places around the globe. Here In New Zealand we are currently paying around $8 USD a gallon, which is double the nationwide US average currently (And unfortunately that still doesn’t move many people to choose an EV over an ICE here in New Zealand yet).

Worth keeping in mind how large and driving-centric the US is, and how poor its public transport options are.

 

[BigDawgz]

I know everything is relative, but it amuses me that Americans are freaking out at $5 a gallon. That’s considered cheap in many places around the globe. Here In New Zealand we are currently paying around $8 USD a gallon, which is double the nationwide US average currently (And unfortunately that still doesn’t move many people to choose an EV over an ICE here in New Zealand yet).

We freak out because we drive about twice the mileage of any other country in the world and driving is absolutely essential to work a ton of jobs, especially the in the working class, who are already stretched unbelievably thin.

 

[Ogre]

Sure but I thought colocation was critical?

"Colocation" will be an archaic, obsolete, no... what's the word.
Well anyway, When Tesla Semi and autonomous driving matures the dang issue won't exist. SO no worries.

The fewer times you have to load something into a truck and unload it, the better.

The smaller/ less byproduct you ship, the better.

Doesn't matter if the process is automated or not, fewer steps saves money. Pack, Load, Drive, Unload, Unpack... those are all steps you can potentially eliminate. Sometimes they are necessary, sometimes you can work it so you can skip steps and save money.

It's not "Critical", but it can save some steps and reduce costs.

 

[Nocturnal]

Well GigaNevada isn't exactly collocated with Fremont, and it works out well... And where are the cells coming from for GigaShanghai?

Colocation helps, but isn't necessary.

Employee resources are an overlooked component. Austin is a decent sized city but you can only absorb so many new jobs in a given period of time.

KC is large enough and not too terribly far. Central location allows for supply to either coast or TX also.

 

[ZachF]

Because they are not real enviro groups at all. I would put good money that they were fully setup by FF industry from the get go. There isn't exactly a litmus test to prove you are who you say you are in this case.

Good chance Russian $$$ is/was behind it too.

 

[Discoducky]

I usually like Ars, but this title is flat out misleading. In the body of the article the hostility is from racial case. As someone who worked with a whole lot of different folks on the Fremont line, contractors and engineers, I used just about every men's restroom in the factory multiple times during my tenure, I just don't see how it can seen as hostile. There is a ton of respect happening is what I saw and gave back.

/Rant off

Musk “invites” union vote at Tesla plant despite long history of hostility

Musk’s offer may be attempt to please Biden, who wants union-made EVs.

arstechnica.com

 

[Dwdnjck]

"Colocation" will be an archaic, obsolete, no... what's the word.
Well anyway, When Tesla Semi and autonomous driving matures the dang issue won't exist. SO no worries.

Coming soon.

 

[MC3OZ]

but then, would Pana start producing LFP cells? I'm confused.

Why not?

There is no particular reason to rule out any option....

Even the distance from Austin doesn't necessarily mean they will not ship cells to Austin.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Oklahoma??? Isn't that the state where lawmakers are trying to kick out Tesla stores and service centers??? For me that would be a deal-breaker.

Might be incentive for the governor to tank that brain-dead bill.